THE DEATH OF A THOUSAND CUTS!!

The small town of Al -Bab is not as significant as the city of Aleppo, but then again the event itself could be a real indication of the status of the Syrian military.

Perception continues to rule the day in Syria and the "perception" that is out there is Assad's ground army is on the edge  of defeat.

It's becoming more and more clear the concept of a large ground offensive to take a city as large as Aleppo is a task too large for what is left of Assad's ground forces.

Not only would Assad's ground troops be unable to control the city of Aleppo if they could gain control, they would never be able  to give the people, what people are left, the confidence to turn Aleppo back into a business center.

The rebels true advantage is not in occupying the entire city.

Their version of a victory should be based upon denying Assad the ability to support his regime with economic support from Aleppo.

Choking off his economic lifeline is a strategic goal the rebels are close to completing.

So, the capture of a small town like Al - Bab is critical in the overall scheme of denial.

The more the rebels control the flow of commerce in the country side, the more Assad will have to adapt to a Berlin Airlift concept.

Even if he does hold the city of Damascus, and I'm not sure he does, if he loses the highways inside his land, then he doesn't control the country.

Again, an army that is too tired, too demoralized and soon under equipped, simply cannot hold every roadway providing the Syrian government support.

To put it simply, if nobody has noticed; Assad and his regime is dying " The Death of a Thousand Cuts".

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/07/201273154349545922.html

IRAN'S CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ASSAD? LETS LOOK.

The second time in a little over a week the Iranian government has made a stronger than normal statement supporting Assad's regime.

In the Middle East, and in politics in general, when someone continues to voice their support for someone who is in trouble, that typically means they are about to give up on them!

Is this the case with Iran?

I don't believe so, not just yet.

I have said Iran is most likely trying to find an alternative future they can live with in Syria, but the baseline of what they would accept is still way off from what is being floated by the rebels and the rest of the world.

Tlass was an example of one of these attempts, but as I said yesterday, that is a distant dream right now.

What it appears Iran is doing is setting the bar and then making sure the rest of the world understands their baseline bargaining position.

Iran will not allow a Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / style government; one that will lead to trouble within the Iranian population.

Iran may accept a Technocratic government that is "open" to all relationships as long as Hezbollah gets a free pass to travel and train in Syria.

Fat chance of that happening with the Sunni movement in the region.

Iran would be happy with a Syria that  falls into a prolonged civil crisis such as Lebanon did for over 15 years.

A Syria that is unable to counter Iran's plans is a Syria Iranian leadership can live with; not be happy, but live with.

Some may see this press statement by Iran's Foreign Minister is not merely a "line in the sand"; notice there is not warning of Iranian military support.

My impression is, this statement is just another way of Iran restating it's position on the crisis.

Oh, ya; notice they had to toss in the shot about the rebels being part of some larger Israeli plot!!!

I'm surprised Iran didn't mention George Bush.. it has the same worn out theme!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=279297

AS SYRIA RAGES... DON'T LOSE TRACK OF LEBANON.

Attached is a series of stories I read this week that have one common theme.

Lebanon is virtually at the edge of the abyss.

Tensions between Turkey and the Kurds boiled to the surface this week, but it was Lebanon that continue to catch my eye.

As you read these four stories, you can easily see just how unstable the government of Lebanon has become.

It's critical to keep track of the violence in Aleppo right now, but the issues of Kurds and Turks and the government of Lebanon are issues that must be watched as well.

Iran is struggling to find a suitable solution for the disaster that has become Syria and the fall of the pro Hezbollah government in Lebanon is more than Iran can handle.

If that's not enough, Iran now has to divert energy towards the issue of a growing Kurdish movement; a movement that has desires on Iranian land.

The March 14th part in Lebanon knows the timing is nearly right to strike a blow against the pro Hezbollah groups in Lebanon, but the reaction could be far more than they ready for.

In my opinion, Lebanon continues to be one big event away from a full-blown crisis; a crisis that  could quickly lead to a collapsed government.  

What worries we most, is the fatigue level of the people who are trying to keep the whole region from imploding.

Issue after issue continue to gain in complexity and speed.

At what point does it all simply become too much to keep together?

I say Lebanon is key.

Keeping Lebanon from conflict is key to keeping the region out of a regional war.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9067

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9068

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9168

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9178

IS EVERYONE REALLY LOOKING FOR A "COMPROMISE"???

A the talk in the past few days has been about finding a suitable replacement for Assad.

Someone the FSA, Russian, Turks, Iranians, GCC, and the rest of the world can accept.

If that sounds like a tall order, it is.

Oh, by the way, it needs to be someone Assad and his clan agree with as well, well... maybe!!

So, the name that is most batted around right now is ex General Tlass!

Tlass is a Sunni, a definite plus when it comes to the Turks and the Gulf States.

An issue Iran may be able to live with as long as he is more of a Technocrat type Sunni than a Muslim Brother model politician.

From the Russian perspective, they are just looking for a way out of a mess that has become way more complicated than they wanted. 

The issue with Putin will be, Tlass can't look like he was a US / Western idea!

If everyone wants Tlass to be the possible answer, then everyone is going to have to let the Tsar feel like it was his compromise.. that's what huge Egos do to people!

As for the Turks, the guys who want to be the new regional powerhouse, they are quickly growing more concerned about the Kurdistan issue than they are the replacement for Assad.

If Tlass is someone that can put the Kurd movement back in check, then he gets the Turk vote hands down.

From the US and Western perspective, anyone that can prevent a region war is going to get support even if that person turns out to be a flop down the road.

If that flop takes place after November of 2012, the US administration will be willing to walk away.

The Saudis and the rest of the GCC may not be totally happy with Tlass, at least that is the rumor right now, but they to could buy their time much as they have done in Yemen by supporting him for now.

Ok, here goes the million dollar question.

Are all parties involved getting closer to finding a way out of this crisis?

My bet is the answer is no.

Here is why I vote no.

First off, Assad gets a vote.

Now, rumors are flying he wants out, but I would say those rumors exist on websites and not in Assad's mind.

The deal to get Assad to step down is going to have to be complete amnesty for not only himself but for his loyal supporters. 

That's a order the FSA and the SNC simply will not fill.

For all the talk of a Yemen type scenario, the days of Assad getting a "deal" are gone!

Giving Assad a pass is quickly approaching the concept of ending WWII by finding a home for Hitler and the Nazi party somewhere in South America.

No, Assad can't go to Venezuela!

Chaves is on his death bed, he just doesn't believe it yet.

As soon as he is dead, Venezuela will have no opening for murderers looking for a place to hide.

No, the Tsar won't take him.

He has no need for him if he falls from power.

So you see, finding someone to run Syria is an issue for after Assad is gone.

The idea of finding someone and replacing Assad is absurd.

Now, the good news is, Russia or Iran could arrange for Assad to wake up dead!

If that were to happen, then the move to replace him will have to be a preset, pre agreed upon plan that can execute in a phone call.

If that is not the case, and I doubt it will be, then the country will turn into a revenge filled version of Zombie Land..

The short story tonight is this.

If you are listening to all the hype of a possible " compromise" you are probably setting yourself up for a real disappointment.

What is sure to happen is a bloodbath in Aleppo and that will change the course of the conflict for the worse.

Stack on top of that bad news, the real threat of the Kurdish uprising becoming an issue Turkey uses as an excuse to launch operations in Syria.

Turkish actions in Syria is exactly what Assad warned against this week and it may be just what he is praying for.

The good news is, Tlass has time to keep growing his hair out!

Lord knows what that look is all about!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93046

KURDS MAKE THEIR MOVE?

One thing that is certain when dealing with a crisis such as the events in Syria.

You simply cannot predict the second and third order effects and the impact they will have on all parties.

It has been a real concern from the beginning of the actions in Syria that the Kurdish issue would rekindle.

Turkish leadership may not have made the Kurdish concern known in the early days of the Arab Spring , but they always had it in the back of their minds.

I can guarantee you it's been on the Kurd's mind from day one of the "Arab Spring".

What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander!

More importantly, this Kurdish issue is heavy on the minds of the struggling Iraqi government; a government that is very upset with Turkey over the developing oil trade with the Kurds of Northern Iraq.

 Along with Iraq and Turkey, Iran has a vote in the Kurdish issue as well given the desires the Kurds have for parts of Iranian land.

The prediction has been the destabilization of the region based on the ongoing events in Syria and this story is yet another indication that prediction is coming true.

PKK and PYD cooperation is a nightmare to Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq!

 The UN is a world body that is simply unable to deal with this "cooperation"; I.E. they can't betray the Kurds as they have in the past.

Simply put; the Kurds feel it could very well be "their time".

If leadership inside the PKK and the PYD are truly ready to cooperate, then the world has a whole new problem in the region.

Enter the Tsar!!

To Putin; Kurdistan is spelled "OIL"...

Kurds are not Arab... they don't have their sights on the Stans... they don't want a Muslim / Islamist capital in Chechnya.

Turkey is trying to work around Putin and the Stans when it come to oil.

Perhaps Putin is going to find a new friend in the concept of this "cooperation".

If you think not... do not forget the Tsar is the old Master of the KGB.

Make a friend one day and the next... a bullet to the back of the head.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93033

MORE TALK OF " FREE ZONES OR "SAFE HAVENS".

It appears the conversation of " free zones" in Syria are back on the front burner along with the term of " Safe Havens".

The comment by the US Secretary of State in the past few days and then the issue of possible " Safe Havens" being created by Islamic Radical groups like IQA has once again given the free zone issue a time slot in the media.

Now, the US Secretary of State's comment was based on the possibility of the rebels actually controlling enough ground on the border of Syria to provide an operational staging area.

I am sure I'm not alone when I say, this idea is a stretch at best!

Any area the rebels may try to declare a " Safe Haven" will come under intense attack by a Syrian military this less restricted with each passing day.

If you ever wanted to invite the threat of WMD operations, then let the rebels announce such an area with only supporters left living in it.

In fact, what the rebels would be doing is providing the Syrian military a conventional warfare target.

In reality the rebels would be changing tactics from a prolonged and so far successful unconventional fight into a standard, purely kinetic weapons fight; something a large standing military is designed to deal with.

A fixed target area with operational, logistical events taking place is a conventional target and would be treated as such.

As has always been the case, the topic of a rebel free zone will still require air superiority and that is something the rebels have no chance of executing without "outside help".

Remember, it is this threat of "outside help" that Assad and Iran have both threatened to respond to.

So, I think the concept of a rebel "Free Zone" is still as distant as it was over a year ago if not further away than before.

By the way; a city that is in partial rebel control or a border crossing is not a " free zone".

WHAT ABOUT THE TALK OF A IAQ / AQ / "FREE ZONE"  ON THE IRAQ BORDER:

If there is an organization that has addpated to the "Free Zone" concept, it's AQ and IAQ.

IAQ conducted just such an operation against the US for the past nine years working out of Syria.

The expectations of what a "Free Zone" should provide are much different for AQ.

That issue is the key point of difference when someone talks about "Free Zones" for the rebels and "Free Zones" for AQ.

To organizations like IAQ, a "Free Zone" is still a covert location where missions are still covertly planned and prepared.

To the Western way of thinking, a "Free Zone" is more like a Beachhead as in D Day; a location where one can execute day to day operations with impunity.

Given this doctoral difference in what a " Free Zone" is, all the talk of a "free zone" being established in Syria,  might be much more achievable for IAQ / SAQ than for the rebels.

IAQ/ SAQ "free zones" will be a version of  living inside the host!.

My speculation is, IAQ / SAQ and others are already operating "Free Zones" inside or near Syira; namely in Iraq.

The simple fact of the matter is this!

Assad's dwindling forces are in a desperate struggle to save Aleppo and

Damascus without destroying the very cities they are attempting to save.

The issue for Syria is no longer just that of a civil war.

The concern for Syria is now what many feared over a year ago.

Syria is becoming the battle ground of a sectarian war.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/middleeast/al-qaeda-insinuating-its-

way-into-syrias-conflict.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f8d7148c-d56c-11e1-b306-00144feabdc0.html#axzz21gSoe2Ye

IS IRAN FINALLY PLAYING IT'S HAND?

This press announcement by Masoud Jazayeri is interesting.

It is my understanding,  this is the first open press release, if you can call

the Fars News agency open, where Iran warns other Arab states to stay out of

the events taking place in Syria.

The mostly muted microphone from Tehran has been more than unusual over the

past sixteen months of conflict in Syria.

Most governments understand explicitly the strategic importance of Syria to

Iran.

It's for that exact reason the mostly silent response from Tehran on Syria

has been puzzling.

Iran's support to Assad's government is undeniable, but the open criticism

public information campaign by Iran has been virtually nonexistent. 

 So why this bold statement now and why such a precise message to Saudi?

I'm not sure the Iranian leadership was has ever been really convinced Assad

would fall.

With the events of the past week and the feedback Tehran must be receiving

from its operatives in Syria that thought process may have just officially

changed.

I would be willing to bet Iran has been contemplating Assad's fall and a

Sunni government in Syria, but the Risk Assessment Iran calculated did not

lead them to believe they need to place a bold warning to the supporters of

the rebels.

Again, that appears to have changed.

The attacks in Damascus, Aleppo and the border crossings all taking place

within a one week period has apparently had a dramatic impact on Iran.

Floating this threat by a lower level Commander is a sign the Iranian's are

still cautious of drawing a line in the sand, just yet.

My bet is, if actions in Aleppo continue and the border crossings are not

secured, thus preventing resupply, Iran will ratchet up this warning.

Assad's statement about WMD operations followed by this Iranian threat is no

coincidence.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=278729

PROMISES BY ASSAD.. WITH A HIDDEN MESSAGE.

The Syrian government  was under extreme pressure, most likely from Moscow, to make a statement today on the issue of WMD.

The US Press "look alike" Jihad Makdissi, I wonder if that is his real first name, took to the podium and tried to assure the world about the status of Syrian WMD actions.

What he said was more than predictable, but Syria meant must be reviewed carefully.

" External aggression"!

The only event that would lead to WMD utilization by Assad?

Ok, you get it....

What is "external aggression"?

Who defines the term?

Yep, Assad does.

Here is the problem and it's a huge one, with the term " external aggression".

For months Assad's government, along with support from Moscow and Tehran, has made the argument that the rebels were receiving "external" support.

Notice the word "External" was part of the tripwire definition of when Assad may use WMD operations!

This word was chosen with extreme caution before today's press announcement.

As I have said in the past, the "word game" in the Middle East is a art form that cannot be overlooked.

Two other statements came out of Syria's announcement today and both of them worried me as much as the word game.

Jihad stated if the decision to utilize WMDs was made it would be made by the "Generals".

Now, does anyone truly believe for a single second Assad would not be the one to give the orders to the Generals?

Jihad would have the world believe that if the weapons are used, Assad will be informed by his Generals!!!

Give me a break!

It's absolutely clear what Assad's messenger is trying to do and that is to attempt to distance Assad from an WMD actions.

A stunt like this will not be successful, and it worries me it was part of the briefing.

Why brief who would be responsible, if you didn't have plans to utilized the weapon?

If Assad has given the pre-approval to his key military leaders to execute as they see fit, then we are simply waiting for the right moment in time to witness the event.

The second slip of the tongue out of the Syrian government today was the issue of " Terrorist" utilizing chemical weapons.

A weak attempt was made to paint the picture of " Terrorist" possibly being responsible for any WMD act they may take place in Syria.

Just as the Generals might be blamed for utilizing WMD, the Syrian spokesmen attempted to build an argument a WMD event might the results of "Terrorist", thus again.. providing Assad probable denial.

Once again; it would not work.

My final concern on this whole discussion of WMD threats in Syria is the simple question of "why"?

Why did Assad feel pressured  to give this canned statement today?

At the beginning of this post, I made the statement this whole stunt may have been the result of prodding from Moscow and or Tehran.

I still think this could be the issue, but one other thought comes to mind.

Within the past day, the Israeli government has made it very clear they will not stand by and accept the threat of Assad's WMD stockpiles falling into the " wrong hands".

A bold statement that Israel did not make lightly.

The threat of preemptive / offensive / operations would have been weighed and cross talked carefully by Israel.

If Israel believes Assad's weapons are moving towards Hezbollah cells or are about to fall into the hands of AQ cells operating in Syria, then the warning is a very serious one.

It could be this warning that Syria is responding to with their statement on WMD utilization.

One thing is for sure..... Assad is close to a " use or lose" event and a distraction such as an open attack by Israel might even be a acceptable crisis.

One last this is also a guarantee.

Israel will not allow Weapons of Mass Destruction to fall into the hands Hezbollah or any Islamic Radial organization bent on Israel's destruction.

That my friends is my real fear.

Assad knows the Israelis will not stand by if he pushes his weapons to the wrong groups and that might just be the best option he has left.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-23-08-06-13

SECOND FRONT... SECOND OFFENSIVE OPERATION!!

For months, clashes have taken place around and even in the vitally important city of Aleppo, but all of those events were minor in nature.

These reports from Aleppo seemed to signal a change and that change is just more bad news for Assad.

Why Aleppo?

The concept of attacking Damascus and then as soon as Assad's forces seem committed to countering in the capital, shifting the offense to another, distant, location is classic.

All last week, the people of Aleppo, who have basically watched in fear for the past sixteen months, witnessed the capital city under siege; only wondering if they were next.

It didn't take long to get the answer they were horrified of.

Damascus may be the capital, but Aleppo is the economic engine of Syria.

The actions against Aleppo have another chilling impact on Assad's forces.

Just when Assad was thinking he may get the upper hand on Damascus, he receives word Aleppo is under attack.

Aleppo, the city Assad's business supporters count on has now become a primary target of the rebels and this is no accident.

Now, stack on top of this the issue of the border crossings and a clear picture becomes  very apparent.

Assad is completely on the defense!

For months, the Syrian government and Iran have had the luxury of deciding how hard to come down on the rebels and what locations to punish.

That has completely changed now.

Perception rules the Middle East and the overwhelming perception right now is the rebels are winning, a fact that is driving Tehran absolutely crazy!

What I find interesting about the past few days and I have been somewhat stunned at the ignorance of the "talking heads" on most media stations, is the complexity of the rebel's actions.

Assaulting Damascus..

Follow on Assaults in Aleppo.

Simultaneous / multiple / attacks on virtually every major border crossing on all four sides of Syria.

All three of these events point to a major point the media and the rest of the world seems to overlooking.

The rebels are planning at a level far more sophisticated than anyone gave them credit for.

Up until last week, every "expert" analysis out there painted the same picture; A rebel forces that lacked the logistics.. leadership and skill to be a truly threatening force.

Well, that's why I always avoid the title of "expert"... . it usually leads you to looking like an idiot!!!

The rebels are so corridinated, so supported and so tactically capable, it is no wonder the Russians and Iran are accusing them of getting help.

Again, the fatal error of not giving the rebels credit for knowing what they are doing.

Any military leader will tell you, the one critical mistake one can make in battle is underetimating your enemy!!

Not only has Assad done this, but so has the rest of the world.

Now, do the rebels have help?

It depends  on what your definition of help is.

Are they getting logistical support / guns / ammo / cash?

Yes...

Are they getting someone helping them figure out where to attack  and how to attack?

Probably not.

Here is an interesting point to consider when someone tries to explain away the rebel's successful operations.

The US has been " helping" the Iraq and Afagan militaries for years and look what that has lead to!

If there is one thing the US government has learned in the past ten years, it's the age old adage of " you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink"!!

"Help" is only effective if the group you are "helping' has the skill, determination and courage to utilize the "help".

One thing the world needs to stop doing  is selling the rebels short.

What you have seen them achieve in the past week is about 85 percent their doing accompanied by an idiot leader in Syria and a military that is not near as good as the world was lead to believe.

Not only is this Syrian military not as good as they were painted to be, but they are demoralized and exhausted.

If the rebels have a flaw, it's the same flaw the US had with the Iraq / Afghanistan  campaigns.... an Exit Plan!!!

That is the topic of my next post...

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18937514

ISRAEL PLANNING??? A VERY DANGEROUS STATEMENT.

Words that come from the Israeli government are always chosen carefully, so what is the "message" when the Defense Minister states they are making plans incase they must move against "advanced weapons" movement?

Imagine how this report is playing out in Tehran today?

Imagine the thought process in Moscow or in Lebanon?

My opinion is the "message" is not a "message", it's a warning!

It's a warning that may be too late and if it's too late, then Israel is laying the media groundwork for a event they know is coming.

I cannot imagine Israel developing such a brazen act without support.

The concept of support makes me think of what was said after the UN disastrous vote yesterday.

The whole conversation, lead by the US, revolving around possibly taken actions "outside" the UNSC.

I am convinced this statement would have been one of the top stories of the day if the event in Colorado would not have taken place.

The statement did get some traction in the media editorials overseas, but even that was limited.

Never the less, the two statements, one by Israel and one by the US, backed by it's Allies, seem to be related.

Not only is it hard to imagine Israel, unilaterally going after Assad's "advanced weapons", it's even hard to imagine the IDF planners developing such a plan without factoring in the reactions of Iran.

Simply put, the odds of Israel taking such aggressive act, on Syrian or even Lebanese land and Iran simply standing   by and watching...... well... I think you know the answer to that one!!!!

Last but not least.

If this statement by the Israeli Defense Minister was simply a "bluff" meant as a warning, I have no confidence it will have any impact on Assad or Iran.

I sit here tonight, confused and perplexed as to why this statement was made and made so soon after the hint that a " Coalition of the Willing" may form... again!!!!!

Honestly.. I don't buy ether statement.

We shall see.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=278314

THE TEMPO IN THE MIDDLE EAST SPEEDS UP!!

Here are three quick issues that will give you a good snapshot of where

things in the region stand as of today.

1.  Look at this story and remember the events in Syria set the tone for

events in Lebanon.

Half of Lebanon is cheered for  the bombing in Damascus, while the  current

Lebanese government condemned the bombing.

Hezbollah is in far greater trouble than most realize and that is a real

danger.

Remember; Iran cannot accept the loss of Hezbollah and Syria.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9145

2.  The Syrian government is trying to shape a information campaign that

gets the people of Damascus ready for witnessing uniformed members fighting

uniformed members.

This could be an indication of just how saver the defection issue has

become.

The lack of well planned counter attacks might be the result of Assad's

military commanders trying to determine what units can be trusted?

It also takes time to execute a " counter strike", especially  when you are caught off guard.

The problem with telling the public they may see uniformed members

assaulting their neighborhoods, besides the fact the public in Damascus

probably no longer believes anything the government tells them, becomes they

don't know who to trust.

To put it in more simplistic terms, the people of Damascus can no longer tell who is a good guy and who is bad guy and even that depends on what side you are on!

That is a recipe for true, uncontrollable panic; the type of panic that

creates a mass exodus and thus a refugee issue for Jordan, Turkey and

Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=278141

3.  Israel did not take the "bait" on the bus bombing.

Notice Netanyahu immediately placed the blame on Iran not just Hezbollah!

Israel understands all too well Iran's plan to have Israel attack "Arabs"

not Iran, thus giving Iran what it thinks would be the support of the Arab

world!!

It will not work, but a plan Iran has never the less.

If Iran is looking for an Israeli overreaction to an attack, it will have to

have its proxy strike again.

My bet is they will.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BULGARIA_ISRAELIS_ATTACKED?SITE=AP

&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-18-13-03-56

The Middle East has become the classic example of events moving far faster

than intelligence and leadership can keep up with.

Everyone is behind the power curve right now and events will drive the

region.

The UN plan for Syria is dead... big surprise.

ASSAD IS NOW BACKED INTO A PHYSICAL CORNER!!!

Well, if the panic mode inside the Assad regime was not high enough, it just

got much worse.

Besides panic, it is now personal for Asssad. His Brother-in-law was killed.

A few issues that make this event more than just significant and exciting

for the media to cover.

1.  The Brigade of Islam quickly took credit for the attack; a  group that

is perceived as a arm of  Islamic / AQ/ radical movement.

    The link between such organizations and the FSA, rebel movement, has

been talked about for months, but this will make the issue bowel to the top.

2.  It's very clear now this campaign has been very well planned and it's

possible the "infiltration" concept is a key aspect of the Damascus attack.

3.  The total loss of confidence of internal security operations, is an

overwhelming issue for Assad's inner circle.  What Guard or groups of Guards

do you "really" trust?

    The supporters of Assad, who are in Damascus, must be trying everything

in their power to get out of the city.

     How would you like to be a Sunni, after the fall of Assad, who is found

by the Rebels to have supported Assad?

     I can guarantee you, someone has as "list" of names / families /

associates, even if it's built on speculation.

4.  The battle in Damascus is very possibly a killing blow to the Syrian

economy.

Who is trading in Damascus in the past three days?

What business are open?

If you are an Assad supporter and you have no confidence who is walking the

streets of Damascus right now, how do you open the doors to your business?

5.  What is Iran thinking right now?

    Does this event drive a wedge between the Iranian advisors to Assad and

the Syrian military leaders?

   Did Iran lose KIA / WIA / in the bomb blast?  ( Don't trust the Syrian

news for the actual body count.)

6.  How many Russians are in Damascus and what is Russia's plan to get them

out?

    Perhaps the Navel flotilla is actually a NEO / Noncombatant Evacuation /

mission?

What does Assad need to do?

 First and foremost, he has to show he controls Damascus or has the ability

to stop the assault and he has to do this without destroying the capital of

Syria!

  It is and it will continue to be virtually impossible to control the

streets of the city without a curfew!

 Without one, at least in the sections of the city where the fighting is

taking place and that appears to be just about anywhere now, Assad's forces

will have no idea  who is just out walking and who is "scouting".

The problem becomes the impact of a curfew.

It is equivalent to admitting the city, the capital, is under siege.

The perception of advantage goes completely to the rebels.

What might the result of this event be?

Assad stands the chance of actually losing this conflict.

The spread of panic can lead to an uncontrollable climate in the entire

city.

 With the loss of his Brother- in-law, Assad now has anger, blood revenge,

on his mind more than ever.

Striking back while he still can is quickly becoming his only option.

Homs or other rebel strongholds are in great danger.

If Assad was ever going to utilize his full military capacity, it will be

now.

He can't fight a Tank and Fighter / Bomber campaign in Damascus, well..

maybe tanks, but he can turn lose his entire arsenal as a revenge event.

Homs is a logical target.

Assad is now a very illogical person.

The rest of the bad news comes from the rebels.

As I said yesterday, it's one thing for young men to get caught up in the

"glory" of shooting and fighting, it's far more complex to understand when

to stop killing and fighting.

Do the rebels, FSA, have an " endgame" ?

What is the plan if Damascus really was to fall within the next few days?

Might last question and the one I always come back to.

What will the Tsar do and what will Iran do?

Was the bombing of the bus in Bulgaria  simply a coincidence?  

Remember my theory of Iran's "Red Line" for Syria.

If Assad falls, so does Hezbollah in Lebanon and so do the dreams / plans of the Persian Empire.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9408321/Assads-br

other-in-law-and-top-Syrian-officials-killed-in-Damascus-suicide-bomb.html

SYRIA'S    TET????

As a follow up to my comments last night:

Some say the Tet Offensive was a turning point in the Vietnam War.

If what we are witnessing is the Syrian conflict's version of Tet, in

Damascus, then the same may hold true.

 Several interesting strategic events are becoming more and more clear as

the battle inside Damascus unfolds.

1.  The Rebels, by design I'm sure, have taken the pressure off of Homs and

other territories where they are attempting to solidify their hold.

             It's nearly impossible for Assad to go on the offensive, at least

for now, in other regions of Syria while his Headquarters is under attack.

             The Rebels will take advantage of this Damascus event to resupply

and prepare for the next round of attacks in the North.

2.  By attacking Damascus in force, Assad's supporters are probably losing

all hope of him, and them, staying in power.

3.  If the stories of Assad's troops firing into the Palestinian Refugee

Camps of Damascus are true, then the number of bodies ready to support the

conflict inside the city just increased tenfold.

             By the way; a brilliant move on the part of the Rebels; attack and

            then fall back into the Palestinian camps and force Assad's troops to fire

            on the Palestinian refugees in Damascus!

4.  This offensive in Damascus may smoke out the Iranian support and expose

it to the media.

           

            Imagine a Command Post full of angry senior Syrian military leaders

            with Iranian "aids" still whispering in the ear of Assad.

This Syrian "Tet" event is real trouble for Assad and Iran and Russia know

it.

Even if Assad's forces beat back the attackers, the visual impact to the

city, one his supporters still there will see, will have a devastating

impact.

The Rebels may have planned a brilliant "Tet" style event, but did they plan

an "end game"?

Imagine a Syrian senior leader, especially a military one, who defects and

makes the comment Assad is only listening to Iranian " Aids".

If someone makes the comment,  " Assad is murdering his own people with the

help of Iranian supporters", and that comment comes not from the Rebels, but

from a senior Syrian defector?

Tracking the WMD stockpiles is critical.

If Israel sees them being handed over to Hezbollah or other radical groups,

then what?

The Syiran "Tet" may be the game changer for not just Syria, but for the

whole region.

http://www.debka.com/article/22183/South-Damascus-embattled-Syrian-high-comm

and-moves-to-fortified-site

THE BATTLE FOR DAMASCUS??? MAYBE ROUND ONE.

Has a decisive battle for the capital of Syria begun?

I wouldn't hold my breath, but the fighting in the past 48 hrs is truly an important event.

The defector's comment in this article brings up a classic concept in unconventional warfare.

Would it have been a brilliant tactic to stockpile weapons inside the capital city over an extended period of time?

Yes.

Forcing your opponent to fight a battle near the core of it's support where it would be virtually impossible to paint a rosy picture as the sound of the battle rages outside the very windows where the " support" lives, is a classic move.

How do you explain to your supporters that everything is just fine, if you have to fly gunships over their houses?

How can you write off a multiple district street battle as just a minor skirmish, when the population of the city cannot use the highway?

Ok, you get the picture.

It appears the rebels, freedom fighters.. take your pick.... have taken the conflict to a new level, even if it's temporary.

For Assad's forces to hammer the attackers into pulling back, the city will suffer and his supporters will only increase their fear of the repercussion for supporting him.

Make no mistake, the battles in and around Damascus are a serious blow to Assad and they come in a week that he has already had several major blows against him.

I've said this in the past.

Be careful what you ask for or in this case what you fight for.

A desperate leader is a extremely dangerous person.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

HAS SYRIA  / ASSAD/ LEARNED HOW TO POLISH IT'S IMAGE?

Take a close look at this video.

It you turned the sound down and didn't pay attention to the flag, you might think you were watching a Whitehouse Press conference in the US.

Is this by accident?

I say not!

Could the defense of the Tremseh event be the beginning of a new Information Campaign to change the perception of Syria?

If this is true, and I believe it is, then who has brought this new technique to Assad and Syria?

It's possible they have made this transformation on their own, but I doubt it.

So, again, where did this "change" come from?

Iran?

Nope..

The Iranian government does a moderate to poor job of pubic messaging outside of Iran and they have never tried to look, "European" in a official governmental announcement.

Ok, my hint was in the last statement!

My bet is the Russians!!!!!

The masters of public messaging for decades were the Russians / Soviets.

The Masters of the Masters within the Soviet Empire was the KGB.

Who was the former head of the KGB?

Are you catching my drift yet?

My hunch is the Russians have refined the public messaging  process for Syria.

My question becomes why?

What is the goal of this new look?

We all understand that perception is reality and the perception painted by a well spoken, well dressed, professional speaker, is far more believable than a Radical Cleric foaming at the mouth about violence and revenge; casting blame in all directions.

Now, get past the visual changes in this press announcement and look at the next interesting "change".

Listen to the tone of the speaker?

Listen to his "tone".

He states that " Mr Annan's letter was very rushed"????

A very limited and as much as possible non-confrontational stance.

Next, the speaker explains what took place in Tremseh was not a " massacre", but an armed confrontation between government forces and the rebels.

Without saying it, the message is understood; in conflict innocent people are killed.

Now, the fact Syria had 48hrs to clean up the area weakens this information campaign, but regardless, it is obvious Syria is attempting to change the face of the government; perception!

If we assume the Russians, Putin, has convinced Assad to develop a more polished public information process, who is the real audience?

The people of the Middle East?

I don't think so.

It's not a style the general public in the Middle East is use to seeing, unless it's a press conference from the West.

My bet is this new tactic is partially addressed to the business class and other educated supporters of his regime.

When Assad has a very well spoken, ex Ambassador defect and show up on all the Western media networks, the Russians probably informed him, to change tactics.

The question becomes, will it work?

In the case of the events in Tremesh, it appears the damage has been limited and some are even questioning if a "massacre" took place, or did innocent civilians simply get caught up in the battle.

The UN investigators, one would hope, will be able to determine what type of battles took place inside the buildings and what type of wounds the bodies they do examine have.

As a point of fact, point blank gun shots are much different than being shot from several meters away; a tactic the ruthless Thugs that support Assad should have already figured out.

So, again; will this new tactic of public messaging work?

Well, it can't hurt.

Assad is learning and adapting.

The rest of the word must stay vigilant to the ever evolving tricks from Assad and those who still support him.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/07/201271593331131542.html