WITH THE US SANCTIONS ON IRAN TO CONTINUE, WHAT ARE IRAN’S OPTIONS?
As usual, the news and events of the world continue to move
at an every quickening pace. As I have said before, this pace makes it extremely
easy to overlook key events that are not wrapped in blood or bombs or scandal….you
know… the key ingredients Western Media looks for. “Like the song said, “Get
the Widow on the set”!
So, the US has extended the sanctions on Iran? Not sure the
common Joe in the US knows are cares, but most do think the nuclear weapons
deal was a bad move. The Republican held House and Senate absolutely thought so
and still do. Even several of the middle of the road Democrats, not many of
them left, agreed. But in the end, with all the others events taking place in
the US, the story of these sanctions being extended for ten more years, well,
it never grabbed anyone’s attention, in the US that is.
The Iranian perspective:
Did anyone in DC really think through the impact the decision
to continue the sanctions would have on the pending Iranian elections? I would
hope so, but then again, it is DC.
Did anyone rationalize the move to continue the sanctions
might strengthen the standing of the “Hardliners” in Iran; as if the “Moderates”
were some Liberal group of thinkers?
Probably and if so, what logic did they apply to the process? My bet is
this was yet another round of, “let’s defy what the White House wants to do and
not really contemplate the second and third order effects of our actions. Okay,
before you start twitching, no I do not support the Obama Administration’s
stance on the nuclear deal with Iran. It was a disaster and a ploy by the
Iranians from day one. What the US ended up with is both sides of the political
spectrum making poorly thought out decisions.
Can the Iranians really afford to walk away from the deal?
No. To openly announce continuation of their program, something they are doing
anyway, would bring them that much closer to devastation at the hands of the
IDF. As I have said time and time again, never ever believe that Israel will
ask for permission to attack Iran’s program.
Are the outcomes of the pending elections really open to
external influence? Doesn’t Khamenei and
his gang actually control who runs? That might be why DC decided to move
forward. What does it matter? Again, let’s hope that DC utilized that much brain
matter on the decision. By the way, with
the turmoil in the quest for power in Iran, post Khamenei, the absolute control
of how the voting may go could be questionable. Yep, there is a chance the
crisis in Iran is deeper than we know. You see, it’s no longer about “Hardliners”
or “Moderates”. It’s about who the next Khamenei is going to be.
What options do the Iranians have? Like I said earlier, they
can’t just walk away from the agreement, but, they have other options. Shia militias,
controlled / supported / by Iran are now operational in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon
and Yamen and their ability to destabilize the GCC is always on the table. I just have to wonder if they anticipated the
move by the US from the very beginning. If so, then the “actions” they claim
they may take have been well thought out. As a reminder, they never intended to
live by this agreement to begin with.
Changes:
With the reality of the Iranian nuclear agreement coming
back into play, we should ask ourselves, “Has anything changed”? Well, the
leadership in the US has changed and changed dramatically. The involvement of the
Russians in the region has “Changed” almost as dramatically as the US
leadership. The Iranian involvement, open involvement, in the region has
changed is a dramatic manner. So, not only has there been “Change”, there has
been widespread, dramatic change!
What does all of this “Change” mean for the agreement? Oh, did I mention how distracted the
European members of the initial negotiation team have become? My hunch is,
the issue of the Iranian nuclear program is going to rise to nearly the top of
the “ need to do something” list for the inbound US President.
Yep, this story just kind of slipped on by a few weeks ago,
but I have a feeling the topic is heading back to the front page sooner than
many realize.
