THE MIDDLE EAST'S VERSION OF " CHICKEN LITTLE".
If you looked
at a trend in the blogs.. Open press and the general public discussions all
along the Gulf region, you would find one very common theme; the never ending
"rumor" of conflict between Israel and Iran and how soon it may
happen.
The difference
I see this time comes from those who are talking about the "rumor".
As is the case
with most emotional issues, who is involved in a "rumor" is often
more important than the rumor itself.
Giving
creditability is a key issue and this "rumor" is gaining
creditability quickly.
Two classic
Middle Eastern indicators may not be the right tools to judge this
"rumor" by this time around.
1. The
speculative price of a barrel of oil.
Constant rumors
of conflict are factored into the market right now....Something physical will
need to happen and by that time the event will be underway.
2. The
unavoidable buildup, mobilization process that typically takes place not just
for US forces, but for Israel and "others".
As an example,
Iran's" mobilization process, to some extent, is easily hidden with a
series of "War Games".
A tactic we
have used in the Middle East as well.
So, what makes
this Middle East version of Chicken Little plausible this time around?
Syria and
Israel!
Like a broken
record I'm going to say it again.
Iran cannot and
will not allow Syria to fall out of its sphere of influence.
A Syrian, Sunni
controlled government is unacceptable to Iran.
A nuclear Iran
is unacceptable to Israel............ I think?
An Arab Spring
infection of Iran is unacceptable to the Iranian leadership!
The loss of
Hezbollah influence in Lebanon, an Ottoman and GCC goal, is unacceptable to
Iran.
For the past 10
yrs we have all sat and listen to the stories of a pending confrontation
between Israel and Iran!
I
know this region of the world and I know what is important to the average
person on the streets of the Middle East and it is not the US
We have all
heard the story of the Middle Eastern Chicken Little so many times, I am afraid
the public doesn't think it's worth worrying about.
I hope they are
right, but I'm more and more convinced they are wrong!
I , like some
of you, remember the 67 war!
