FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!
A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order
effects of "Sanctions".
Now, it's a common understanding the current list of
sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran
to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place
social pressure on the government of Iran.
As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically
run government.
The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran
to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until
we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.
Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by
Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of
the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.
Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it
didn't work.
That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can
rest their future on.
I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an
impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that
is a risk that has been assumed.
Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran
to take to the streets?
Perhaps, but not anytime soon.
Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership
lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?
That is my fear!
Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his
Boss?
Most likely!
The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to
be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?
One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical
and there is no real love between them.
Did the West take this tension into consideration before the
sanction's plan was implemented?
I seriously doubt it!!!!!!
So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?
The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?
Nope!
The fall of the radical government?
Not anytime soon.
The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract
the Iranian people?
Most likely!!!
One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite
out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to
blame someone.
