PRESIDENT TRUMP MOVES ON THE CARTELS

NOW WHAT? 

If you haven't heard by now, President Trump made the statement he is going to designate the Mexican drug cartels as, "Terrorist Organizations". First off; wow, just making the statement both shocked and even stunned those of us who have pushed for this event. As I sat to pondered what this would mean, I came across dozens of social media post on the topic. 90 percent of the people who commented, were completely in favor of the President's announcement. That other 10 percent? Well, it seems most of those post had a common theme. Not only did they have a theme, they seemed to come from the same school of thought; the school of those addicted to the Islamic Terrorism dollars! ' This decision will pull precious resources from the operations against Islamic terrorist groups’, or something along those lines. If that’s not bad enough, for months the additional argument has been, ‘the cartels do not fit the recognized framework of a true terrorist organization’! I’ve listened to mindless statements on the issue of insurgencies that are not based upon a deliberate change to governmental operations. To hear all these “experts” tell the story, the cartels are nothing more than ruthless drug dealers and common thugs! Look, I’m not traveling back down the road of explaining why these opinions are completely out of touch. I’ve debunked the, “they are not terrorist”, argument repeatedly. What I do wish to accomplish is to move on. I want to get to the assumption the designation will take place. I want to look at what this means to Mexico and the cartels. Yes folks, I’m pushing ahead and leaving these so called, “experts” in the rearview mirror.

What does this designation mean:

Let’s play one of my favorite games, one I’ve come back to over and over again. Let’s play “The Law of Unintended consequences”. After that, we will jump right into another all time favorite, “2^nd and 3^rd Order Effects”. Now, in both of these games, we have two contestants, the US and Mexico. Both may be involved in the same game, but both have very different perspectives and as such, both will have dramatically different goals. Now for the real bad news. In the end, both contestants could impact each other in ways most simply have no way of predicting. All right. Let’s get down to it! By the way. Trump just took another action that may push this “designation” issue off the table. Hint….. Think Hong Kong!

Initial reaction:

When this comment was made by President Trump, was he in a scheduled White House Press Conference? Nope. Was he releasing a statement that had thousands of hours spent on deliberate planning? I doubt it. Did he give a heads up to the rest of his “Team”? Don’t hold your breath on that one. So then, what did he do? Simple; he did what he always does, he spoke his mind. I know, that’s the one thing the MSM and the Left can’t stand about him. Trump’s ability to punch an issue right between the eyes and then look at you with that, “ how do you like that”, look, that’s what drives the left insane.

Side Note. Its obvious President Trump gave Mr. AMLO the “heads up”. It’s the only reason AMLO and his staff made the comments they did, the day before Trumps interview.

Now that we have come to terms with how this event happened, let’s push to the good stuff. Let’s talk about the reactions.

Mexico:

The phone rings and Mr. AMLO is told by his SEDENA reps at NORTHCOM, the rumors his government have heard are true. The President of the US is actually looking to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations. The “We hate Trump Team” in DC has informed their fellow leftist in Mexico City, Trump is pushing the issue. So, realty check. It was not a surprise when the interview took place. Again, why else would Mr. AMLO and his staff have addressed the potential designation issue the day before? Sorry Bill. The cat was out of the bag before your, “you heard it hear” episode took place.

Did the reality of Mexico City knowing before the announcement have any real impact? Oh, you bet it did. Here is a fairly well-known fact. The US “ IC” see the financial accounts of people who would never suspect their accounts are being “watched”. With the pending designation, the theory of money being moved at a furious rate is a given. Did those who control the funds of the drug world take advantage of the typical DC leaks? You bet they did. Did the US see that action taking place? You bet they did. Did this money movement involve institutions and individuals that will not be disclosed? Absolutely. Folks, this is a 60 BILLION DOLLAR A YEAR BUSINESS. Just how far do you think that money spreads in this world?  My fist assumption? The word got out and the money moved faster than the lips in DC.

That statement I made about individuals not being disclosed, well, that covers a large percentage of the Mexican government. So, what was the real panic about in Mexico City? The “Gringos” getting ready to play Clear and Present Danger on Mexican land? Nope. The initial panic came from the knowledge that accounts and who owns them, supports them, would come under brand new rules, rules on a global scale. Anger? Yes, there was anger, but not for the reason you would think. Pride is free, but dope, well, that makes you Billions!

The US:

Did you see how wild the MSM in the US went after the big announcement? You didn’t? Ya, me neither. As soon as my messenger started to blow up with the  euphoria from those who have been fighting to make this designation a reality, I began to watch CNN and MSNBC. What did I find? I found the same thing you found. Nothing. The first story that showed up, that I could find, was on BBC, and that was this morning. This is where I will admit I missed the boat. After I learned of the President’s statement, my first inclination was, “ the MSM and then the Democrats are going to come unglued”. “ Trump is threatening to invade Mexico! Trump is going to attack the US’s number one trading partner. TRUMP……TRUMP………TRUMP”!!! Nope. Nothing, not a peep, at least that I could find. Perplexed? You bet I was. Missing the opportunity for painting a picture of Trump being off his rocker once again simply passed on by. Why? It took me a while, but then I figured it out. Nothing, and I mean nothing gets in the way of the Impeachment frenzy! The hell with what the President said today. The Ukrainian event was finally going to achieve the goal, finish the Coup against the President the Left hates more than ISIS or any other organization in the world. Some crazy statement about Mexico and drugs, well, they were not going to be distracted by that minor detail. Yep, it seemed the US simply ignored Trumps Mexico invasion plans! Now, here we go. It’stime for, The law of Unintended Consequences, Mexico’s phase.

The US President makes the statement he will designate the Mexican drug cartels as terrorist. Mexico City get’s the tip and then waits to see how DC reacts to the US President’s statement. Does Mexico City comprehend the status of President Trump inside DC? You bet. Just how much of that 60 BILLION is spent in DC? You don’t want to know. Inside Mexico City, the government looks at this event as a stunt, a camping ploy, just another of Trump’s irrational comments, one of thousands. Shot answer. Mr. AMLO and his staff don’t take the whole thing very serious, and that is where the primary law of unintended consequences event takes place. Problem. Mexico City doesn’t worry about what DC does in response to Trump’s statement. They worry about their Bosses, the cartel bosses! What have you heard me say a thousand times in the past? The US’s number one trade partner is controlled by the cartels? Don’t believe it? Prove me wrong. Trump makes a comment about changing the whole world of the drug cartels and Mexico City’s primary concern becomes,howdo the cartels react?

In President’s Trumps statement, he made the comment the concept of designation had been working for 90 days. Interesting. Do I doubt that? No. Do I think some very smart people worked up very detailed COA / Courses of Action/ that included possible reactions and consequences of such a move? You bet your life they did. Was the issue of the cartels being moved into the official world of terrorism the primary talking point in the White House? Nope, and how could it be with a Coup in full swing? Bottomline. The concept of designation may have been reviewed, but did that mean the nation was ready to make a statement to the world? Was the US prepared to put into motion a very complex, highly integrated operation to make this designation a realty? No, at least my opinion is no. Has anyone heard the story of Space Command? Just a thought. Here is another slice of that law we are talking about. It doesn’t matter if the US was ready for the designation. What matters is what the perception was of the cartels. They have all undoubtedly seen, Clear and Present Danger. They all can quote the most famous line…… you know………………” Variable …………..This is Knife”. Look, the cartels heard the news, perhaps before AMLO did, hell, it may have been the cartels that told AMLO. As soon as they heard, they had one of two choices. 1. Ignore the statement given who gave it. 2. Panic and start changing everything they do. Who knows what they did? The US IC does, that’s who. Determining trends, patterns of life, these are the things the US IC leads the world in analyzing. Trump speaks……………….cell phones light up………………point A is talking to point B. Was the IC ready for this event? I would say yes. Here comes yet another phase of the Law. The IC tracks the event, analyze the event and then reports it’s findings. Then what? Did anyone pay attention to what they may have come up with? Can I give you about a thousand examples of that part of the process falling apart? Bottom line. Trump spoke and the cartels reacted, but did anyone in DC pay attention? Coups and finger pointing, that’s DC right now.

The Mexican People:

Did President Trump’s statement play large inside of Mexico, other than Mexico City and the cartels? You bet. Here is a little-known fact and it’s one I learned fist hand. The Mexican Military is only worried about one thing; the invasion of the US. Illogical you might say? Do you know the history of the US and Mexico? Have you ever heard of a guy by the name of Blackjack Pershing? If your answer is no, look him up. Google his name and Mexico. That will be your first clue. How did the Mexican Military take the statement from the US President? Did they get insider information before the statement? Yes. Why do you think they have reps at NORTHCOM? Were they told, “Don’t worry about it. It will never happen and if it does, it won’t change anything”. My bet is, that is exactly what they were told. At the end of yesterday, the most important message to the Mexican Military was, “don’t overreact”. Here is my question. Can a simple promise from a group of staff officers or even a General wash away over 100 years of paranoia? The IC knows……….hint! By the way. Incase you may have overlooked the obvious, the cartels tentacles reach deep into the Mexican Military. Once again, how did that realty impact the perceptions in Mexico?

I started this section with the title, The Mexican People, so, let me get back to that part of this law analysis. Reminder. The “law” I am referring to is the Law of Unintended Consequences. I like giving gentle reminders. The news in Mexico spread the word of the US President’s statement with amazing speed. Not as fast as social media, but still fast. By the time I asked a friend on Twitter what the people in Mexico were talking about, the perception / law / was already going into effect. Here words to me were, “people are already worried about what the US might do”. An unintended consequence of the designation? Yep. Was this something those planners thought about in that 90 day discussion? Perhaps. Has there been a noticeable shift in the perceptions of the Mexican people towards the US? You guessed it……………… The IC!

When you are a hard working citizen of Mexico and you wake up in the morning, you worry about a lot of things, the corrupt police, the cartel thugs, crooked politicians at the local, state and federal level. You worry about how all of these realities will impact your life that day, just that one day. Now, now the US is saying terrorist groups run wild in Mexico; terrorist groups that pose a danger to the US. How does that add to your day? Just how many bricks can someone stack on the backs of the people who truly hold Mexico together…. The working stiff! Yep……………the Law!

The Scenario:

Let’s move on. Let’s get passed the law phase and dive into the 2^nd and 3^rd order effects issues. I won’t go too deep here because I want to do a follow up post on the real scenarios that might take place. As a teaser of where I will go with those scenarios, think about this. What if the effect of the US President’s statement is the cartels lash out at the US? What if they decide the US has no staying power? What if they convince themselves, just like in the Middle East, the US is averse to spilling blood on Mexican ground?  Simply put, what if the effect of this designation is a violent response by the cartels? Did you see Clear and Present Danger? I know. I already asked that question, but you get my point.  Folks, the cartels are terrorist. They control land and commerce in Mexico for the purpose of gaining power and controlling the environment they live in. I don’t give a hoot what the Think Tank “experts” say, those are the goals of every terrorist group and they achieve those goals by terrorizing the people into allowing them to operate the way they want to. Should they be designated? Absolutely. Should the US find new and more imaginative ways to truly deal with the cartel terrorist? If they don’t, then this issue is going to get much, much worse.  If the designation plan was not ready for primetime when the President made his statement yesterday, the planners better burn the midnight oil and get ready. Those unintended consequences and effects are coming and perhaps soon.