AN UPDATE ON DAMASCUS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
A few days ago, I explained the strategic and psychological
significance of Damascus IAP.
The issue as to why that location is so critical to Assad
and Iran needs no further explanation, but the tactical discussion will show
why holding that location is nearly impossible for Assad in the long run.
Airports need several things in order to remain
"open".
The free movement of resupply fuel is one of the first real
critical events Assad's regime must insure.
Airplanes that are flying tactical resupply missions can
land with sufficient fuel on board to turn and go, but day to day commercial
airline industries do not and will not work under such "risk".
This fuel issue has a second real impact on the success of
the airfield.
Storage!
Above ground storage tanks and fuel lines that are
"exposed" make nearly irresistible targets to the rebels.
This is one of the points that I find interesting about the
assault on Damascus IAP.
Why don't we see large pillars of smoke and flames billowing
up from the Fuel Farm?
Have the rebels not thought of attacking this vital link to
Assad's primary supply point?
Have the rebels formed a deliberate plan to avoid collateral
damage to this facility?
Has "someone" asked them to approach the destruction
of the Airport with "post Civil War requirements" in mind?
My gut tells me no.
I'm not convinced someone drafted, agreed to "master
plan" for Damascus IAP, at least not from a post civil war / World view.
Now, If I were Assad's military leaders, I would have some
of my best units protecting this airport for all the reasons I talked about a
few days ago.
So, it could be it's much more difficult to reach, even with
indirect fire, the fuel farm.
If I wanted to prevent the arrival of support flights to
Assad, I would not concentrate my limited assault assets on the fuel farm.
What is the one thing every airport must have to remain
open?
Yep... Runways!
If I wanted to stop Assad's resupply support, I would go
after the runways first.
Again, the question becomes why has this not happened?
First off; the size of shell it takes to creator a several
foot thick runway is hard to hide especially when your enemy still owns the sky
above you.
Runways are vital, but they are also very difficult to completely
destroy.
The ability to fill a 20 ft whole and pour fresh asphalt is
much easier than sneaking close enough to shell the location.
Can the rebels take a section of the airport long enough to
destroy the runways beyond the point of a quick repair job?
Again, remember the level of troops Assad probably has assigned
to this site!
Ok, if you can't take
out the runways, what is the next logical option?
Answer; make it very difficult to safely approach the
airport by air.
It's what is commonly referred to as the " Manpad
footprint".
Large transport aircraft or commercial airlines on final
approach are sitting ducks for manpad shots.
The area the aircraft must fly over on it's final leg to the
runway is the most dangerous and in this case most assuredly the most guarded.
Manpad denial requires owning the rooftops of any building
within shoulder fired range of the airport.
A task that is extremely difficult even with large number of
troops available and even when the airport is somewhat remote like Damascus
IAP.
Again, why have we not seen the "shot" taken by
the rebels?
Take your choice.... .someone has said, "don't go
there"....... It's simply too difficult ... or the proverbial... " we just don't want
to......yet"!!!!
Ok, what does all of this conversation lead to?
Simple; it 'leads to emphasizing just how critical Damascus
IAP is to everyone involved.
Assad cannot survive without this facility..
On the other hand, the rebels can win this civil war without
destroying or even overrunning Damascus IAP.
That is the difference.
You see the rebels know all too well just how hard Assad
will fight to keep this facility in his grip.
They know that he limit actions in other areas for the sake
of saving the airport.
A few units assigned to "harass" the airport after
a well timed public notice about the airport being a "legitimate
target" could be the game being played.
Would the rebels love to take Damascus IAP?
Yes.
Would they be willing to drive Assad into taking actions the world would not sit back and watch unfold?
Yes!
Damascus IAP means virtually everything to Assad.
To the rebels, it could easily be target that drives Assad
to destruction at the hands of the rest of the world.
One last catch to this topic and it's a big one.
The second Assad's military commanders believe they are
going to lose this airport, the level of panic inside what is left of his
military will hit a new high!!!
Watch Damascus IAP and you will see the future of Assad.
