SNAP SHOT / OCT 9TH 2011

Here is a simplistic review of what is taking place this week in the Middle East and the spin off event in the US, "Occupy Wall Street".

Egypt:

For months now I have beat the drum on how the MB simply needs social disorder to continue right up to the elections in Egypt.

The more the people of Egypt worry their country may never return to any level of normalcy, the more likely they are to vote for a group, such as the MB groups, that promise social order equality.

The violence in the past two days is just anther example of what the MB needs to happen in Egypt.

What the MB doesn't want and will not stand for is the Egypt Military to continue to push the elections down the road.

The longer it takes, the less power the MB will gain and that is their fear.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/2011109155853144870.html

Saudi:

The violence of the past week with the Shii groups in the Northeast are not accident.

The problem for Saudi will continue to be the overreaction and the heavy-handedness of the Saudi Police and National Guard.

Both of these are exactly what Iran is counting on.

Don't look for the Saudis to do anything that will actually defuse these events anytime soon.

How far they go and where they lead to is really up to the Shii organizers and trust me, these are organized events.

Bahrain:

The events in Bahrain go hand in hand with the problem Saudi has with the Shiite population in Saudi.

The difference is, Bahrain managed to do exactly what I would count on the Saudis doing... killing someone that provides a rally cry for the Shii population.

The riots in Bahrain this week are nothing new, but the government is taking two steps backwards by killing the 16 year old boy.

Just when it looked like Bahrain was going to defuse the trial of the Doctors issue, they turn around and drop the hammer on the Shii again.

Foolish and I'm not sure how fast Saudi would coming running to their aid this time given the pending issue  in that region of Saudi Arabia.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/20111071362401501.html

Syria:

The on again... off again... Syrian National Council ( SNC) may finally be getting some traction.

I say based on Assad officially warning other nations not to recognize the SNC or have any dealings with them.

  What could be more than interesting is the issue of who Assad was really addressing with this announcement.

Lets imagine for a minute he was talking to Iran! Yes . Iran....

Lets assume Assad has fears of Iran abandoning him, as they should be.

Assad could make such a bold statement and if challenged by Iran, could simply respond, " I was addressing Turkey and the other GCC countries".

The other issue that would be more than ironic, but would fit the history of the Middle East, would be if Iran "assumed" the message was meant for them.

Paranoia is a daily fact of life in the Middle East and Iran leads the way on living off of paranoia.

So, what chances does the SNC really have?

Well, it's better than what they tried to come up with two months ago in Turkey, but it's a long ways from pushing Assad from power.

To do that, they must convince the Sunni Business class and the Kurds and finally key military leaders that Syria's future doesn't have to be a sectarian civil war.

If they can do this and do so without Assad taking action first, then maybe... just maybe they have a chance.

One thing is for sure... the EU and the US are going to maintain a real "hands off" attitude for the foreseeable future.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/2011109105926786426.html

Oh ya.... this was a huge mistake that I will be watching this week.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=79965

Turkey:

It appears the Turkish blustering has calmed down in the past week.

As the Ottoman Empire was out telling the world how they were prepared to be the keepers of the whole Middle Eastern Region, they suddenly discovered how vulnerable their economy actually was becoming. 

Telling the people of Turkey they are the future of the region is one thing... letting them see the value of their savings start falling apart is quite  another.

As for the drumbeat of how Turkey feels about Israel, it could be the brash talk was beginning to worry people who rely on calm waters and trade and the word got back to the Ottoman Emperor!

Turkish navel vessels playing cat and mouse with the Israeli navy was not getting them anywhere, coupled with the Egyptian MB sticking a finger in the Ottoman's eyes.

All in all, Turkey decided to slide off the FrontPage for now..

How long that last is anyone's guess, but I would say we will hear from them real soon on some emotional topic.

It's hard to play world leader and stay off the news for too long.

Israel:

Midnight oil has to be burning every night in the leadership offices as the plans for the pending UNSC vote unfold.

Even if the US is successful in preventing 9 members from bring the Palestinian vote issue up to a vote, they will still get blamed for the lack of action.

This will be the classic, " Damned if you do and damned if you don't".

Abbas knows this and will not move from his position.

Right now, Abbas is ridding the popularity wave with most of the Palestinian people, but it is interesting to hear the discontent already growing.

It is becoming more and more evident many of the Palestinian people are wondering if Abbas vision of the Palestine is truly the vision they have.

The fact that many of them are questioning why the issue came up without consulting the general public has not been answered to their satisfaction.

If everything goes Abbas's way, will the people of Palestine simply fall in line and march to his drum?

Don't bet on it.

Hamas will be the last to settle for a sectarian government run by technocrats.

the fact of the matter is, Hamas is going to use the failure of the UNSC issue to try and deal a death blow to Abbas's government.

Abbas is a Hero in a lot of place  right now, but Gaza is not one of them

Everyone seems to have their "plan" for a post UNSC vote and the Hamas plan focal point is the downfall of Abbas.

So, what is Israel planning?

Survival.

I was not kidding two weeks ago when I posted it was ill advised for the UN to back Israel into a corner.

Voting for something that makes you " feel good" and then finding out you have set the stage for a regional catastrophe is a classic UN event.

Violence in the West Bank and in other parts of the Middle East are probably going to be the results of the UNSC issue.

Who allows it to get out of hand is the issue that needs to be addressed.

If I was Hezbollah or Hamas, I would be very careful with painting a picture of how they are ready to "battle" Isreal...

The next battle the two of them witness with Israel is going to be unlike any they will remember.

Don't forget... Virtually none of the members of Hamas or Hezbollah were even alive for the 67 or 73 wars in the Middle East.

They simply have no idea what they could be facing if they back Israel into a corner.

 Occupy Wall Street:

I think I've read two dozen stories comparing " Occupy Wall Street" to the Arab Spring.

Most of this is wishful thinking on the parts of the Social Revolutionaries and Anarchist groups.  

I spent this week telling people around me the real issue to watch, as was with the Arab Spring, was not what was being said at the protest, but who was trying to take advantage of them.

You have the usual list of suspects such as Mr. Chavez.

As you would expect in a truly Democratic society, political parties began the process of taking responding to the event.

Having the unions show up is a simple attempt by one party in the US to get out in front of the movement and do their best to turn it's energy into a campaign issue.

I don't see how this event could not be a campaign issue going into 2012 for the US , but that depends on what else goes on in the world over the next eight months.

As I stated last week, the timing of a possible second recession world wide, will only make this " Occupy" movement more volatile.  

Another similarity it will have with the Arab Spring will be the idea of some organizations, perhaps several, trying to capture, Hijack, the movement for their goals.

Social disorder in the US on a scale the country has not seen since the 60s is the dream of a few of our enemies.... and they are hard at work trying to make this dream come true.

The Student's in Egypt had no clue they were being manipulated, just as the Students had no clue in Iran when the Shaw was overthrown.

Those that truly believe the " Occupy" movement is only about " social injustice" need to be very careful who comes to their support!!!

Wolves can hide in more than one costume.