2012    A DECISIVE YEAR FOR THE ARABS AND THE MIDDLE EAST!

As 2011 comes to an end, the age old question is once again asked, "what will 2012 bring"?

It seems the Academics and the " Talking Heads", both groups who are usually wrong, are once again trying to impress their followers with detailed, philosophical statements.

About six months ago,  I made a simple statement about the future of the Middle East.

Who is going to be the next "leader" in the Middle East?

Will it continue to be what the people in the region refer to as the "Colonial Powers"?

Will it be the reemerging Ottoman Empire from Turkey?

Will it be the reemerging Persian Empire from Iran?

Will the Arab League finally achieve the level of validity it has dreamed of?

Colonial Powers:

The Colonial Powers have history and economics on their side, but the economic weapon is decaying and is predicted to continue to decline.

The Colonial Powers, as  has been the case throughout time, will continue shrink their sphere of influence as the financial situation worsens.

In short, the days of Colonial Rule in the Middle East are over.

How quickly and how orderly this happens is an issue of the Social Media events such as the Arab Spring. ( The Colonial Powers, and " others", still do not understand the power of Social Networking. It's a Genie that is out of the bottle.)

The Ottomans:

Time is sometimes everything and this time around that is especially true for Turkey.

Turkey's 15 year quest to be accepted by the European Union and Economic club has come to a scratching stop.

As things continue for the  " Collective Europe", it could very well be the Europeans will need the Ottomans' more than Turkey needs to be accepted by Europe. Hint... The Turks understand this all too well.

As bright as the future currently seems for the Ottomans, their enemies will not just sit back and give away their dreams. ( Insert the Persian dream here!!)

The issue of the Kurds and a dream of Kurdistan pose the same daunting task the Israelis face with the Palestinian statehood issue.

Yes... the Kurds are the Turk's version of the PA.

Another problem for the Ottoman quest is the fact the Arabs don't trust them.. never have and never will.  Look at history for the examples.

The Arab League and the GCC will not simply role over for the new Colonial Power.. The Ottomans.

The Persians:

The dreams of one leader in Iran are not necessarily the vision of the other and that is the key weakness to the Persian future.

A house divided is never a house ready to concur the region, much less the world.

Persians are not Arab and no one knows that better than the Arabs.

They have been told that for thousands of years.

Just as there can be no true alliance between the Ottomans and the Arabs, there will be know alliance between the Persians and the Arabs, regardless of faith!

Continuing to thrive or survive on the common threat of the Israel and the issue of the Palestinian state is not going to save the Persians.

Youth and the internet will bring down the Religious fanatics and they know this.

The danger will become a " Youth" that is Nationalistic and once again looks down their collective noses towards their Arab neighbors.

The Arabs:

If you asked 100 people across the world, " who are the 'Arabs', you would not find a common answer.

The problem is, you would get the same results from asking 100 Arabs the same question.

A region with a four thousand year history of " Tribes.. Clans.. family bloodlines... transcends any concept of Arab Unity.

The Arab League has been and will continue to be a dream just as the Pan Arab movement was a dream.

Not sure what I am talking about here?

Watch Laurence of Arabia and it will become clear to you nothing has changed.

So, who takes the lead in the Middle East in 2012?

Nobody!

The vacume created by the continue withdraw of Western countries will not be filled by any of the major players listed above.

Oh ya... Don't count on the Chinese.

If you want to see the Chinese concept working with the Middle East, watch the interview on Al Jazeera from several months ago when they asked China about the damage they were causing in Australia ore mining.  

Short answer from China.. " We could care less... we are here for the ore".

A little less tack than we have used in the West, but the simple truth is as long as oil flows from the Middle East, China doesn't care about anything else.. Sorry Palestine and Kurds.. No help coming.

Ok, let me wrap this up.

2012 is yet another year of violence and stagnation for the Middle East.

The Arab Spring will spread with the fall of Al Assad in Syria.

The Iranians will force a conflict to prevent the Arab Spring from taking place in Iran.

It will not start with Hammas or Hezbollah.

Arabs will not destroy everything they have for the sake of the Persians.

Iran will use " other" players to get the fight underway and they will try desperately to keep the Israeli issue the center of attention after Syria falls.

The problem is they can not survive without Syria as a proxy and they know it.

Yes... 2012.. will see the Iranian conflict come to a head, but it may not be a regional war simply because the Arabs will not burn down their world for the Persians.

The world economy will tank and that will cause issues in other parts of the word the West will not be able to ignore..

Happy New Year!!!!