SYRIA ... A SECOND FRONT WAR.. DID MIKATI JUST PUT IT INTO PLAY?
Ok, everyone has
been worried for well over a year now over the stability of Lebanon and the impact to an
already critically unstable region a Lebanese crisis would have.
Let's get back to the basic simple principles of what is
important about Lebanon
and then perhaps we can place a value on the actions taken by Mikati.
First and foremost, Mikati and General Rifi are Sunni and
don't think for a single second that is not the baseline of what this is all
about.
Next; Hezbollah knows a crisis in the Lebanese government
right now could easily turn into a shooting crisis for all of Lebanon ; just look at the events in Tripoli over the past
three days.
As for Mr Assad in Syria , he has two trains of thought
he can travel.
1. A
"distraction" in Lebanon
draws the Sunni fighters, at least some, from the Syrian battlefields into Lebanon ;
especially if they are dealing with the powerful Hezbollah military machine.
The issue here is he must get "permission" from
Iran to instigate such and event and that begs the question, does Iran want
such a thing at this point in time and if so....why????
If Iran
allows Hezbollah to be fully engaged in a conflict inside of Lebanon , is the intent to draw the IDF into the
fight perhaps to preempt an attack on Iran 's nuclear program?
Short answer; start a "backfire" to prevent a
complete Forrest Fire... I've talked about this in the past.
2. Assad can demand
of Hezbollah that Lebanon
not turn into a shooting war because he needs every available asset from
Hezbollah to prevent the fall of his own government.
Short answer, " The hell with Lebanon ... help me stay in
power"!!!
Good luck on this one, if he does chose this course...
remember... Hezbollah works for Iran
not Assad.
So, can the resignation of Mikati and his government really
lead to a shooting war in Lebanon
between the Sunni and the Shia?
My bet is, if anything it will limit the ability of the
Lebanese government to keep a lid on issues along it's border with Syria and
the tipping point of yet another conflict in Lebanon is not far away.... it may
be here.
Oh by the way............does anyone really think Israel is
overly concerned about Shia killing Sunni?
Can Hezbollah deal with the Sunni groups in the cities of Lebanon quickly
enough, as they did a few years ago, that a full scale conflict is avoided?
In the cities...........perhaps........along the
border.......no!!!
The Sunni combat units working in Syria
all a thousand times more capable than they were when Hezbollah made quick work of them inside Lebanon a few
years ago.
How many of these units will turn and fight a Second Front
War in Lebanon ?
That is the question.
Can this pending crisis in Lebanon be contained to just these
two factions fighting each other?
That is up to Iran ...
Hezbollah rockets into Israel
to force the Lebanese crisis onto Israel ... that is the
unknown...
http://www.jpost.com/International/Lebanese-PM-resigns-over-dispute-with-Hezbollah-307463
