SYRIA AND THE ARAB LEAGUE INITIATIVE.. YA..... RIGHT!!!

So, it's one  or two days past the great breakthrough with Assad and the Arab League and the city of Homs continues to be a battle zone!

Now, some will argue that " cease fires" and that is truly what we are talking about here, take time to implement.

Others will say that cease fires are contingent on both sides agreeing to the terms.

In Syria's case, it's far more complex than that.

For the Arab League and the Syrian government, the official one for now, to agree on terms for ending the violence doesn't mean the Sunni and the Shia / Alawites / were in the room or even voted on what the terms would be.

If what Syria is and has been facing for weeks now is a sectarian / Civil War/ than the agreement from two days ago is the classic, " too little too late".

It was even hinted by many prominent Middle Eastern followers this was the case.

What is interesting and needs further analysis is the fact the Arab League and Assad knew this to be true before the great agreement was reached.

As for Assad, he may have realized he was in a great position to say, " I told you so".

Stop to think about what he did.

He took a list of demands from the Arab League that everyone knew he would not come close to agreeing to and after a closed door meeting allowed the AL to announce a great breakthrough.

Within hours the Sunni blood feud with the Alawites in places like Homs and Bab Amro gave Assad exactly what he was looking for; the statement that armed factions were causing the violence in Syria and his forces were simply responding to protect the people.

Here is the interesting question, technically .... is he wrong????

True, his forces spent the first few months attempting to crush the protesters for the reason, in his mind, of preventing a sectarian civil war from taking place.

Not speaking to the brutality of his attempts, if he has failed in preventing the Civil War, then his ability to stop the fighting is extremely limited.

Now, I have no intention of sounding as if I condone any of his Actions over the past few months, but the fact of the matter is Assad most likely sat down with the Arab Leauge knowing he was powerless to give them what they were looking for.. thus ... why not agree to what they demanded.

So, what is the next move?

What does the Arab League do when they realize Assad is powerless to stop the fledgling civil war?

If they realized what they were walking into when the showed up to talk to Assad, then they have been planning what their next step should be.

I know that is giving the AL a great deal more credit than most, but I am convinced they knew what time it was before this weeks meeting ever took place.

It will take probably another day or two at the most to see where the blame line shows up.

Will the AL blame Assad for breaking his word?

If so, what does that get them?

Will the AL begin to place pressure on the Sunni side of this civil war?

We should see hints of the next AL move, if they can manage one, soon!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=244323