THE US PRESIDENT FAVORS “SAFE ZONES” WHY?

Not sure with all the actions being taken by the new US President, the Syrian story is the one worthy of discussion today, until I began to think about why President Trump would be in favor of “Safe Zones”?

In everything he does, the needs and the desires of the US come first! That is what he said the day he was sworn in and that is what I believe he intends on doing. So, how do Safe Zones in Syria fit into that picture? Let’s look at a few key questions and see if the picture is more complicated than we may think.

Do Safe Zones in Syria address the issue of Refugees coming to the US?

 Yes, to the extent of those fleeing the conflict in Syria. By the way, even if you don’t approve of the stern actions taken by the Russians, you will have to admit the flow of people out of Syria has declined, yes, for a multitude of reasons.

  If President Trump is going to declare a “moratorium” on Refugees from place like Syria, then having an alternative plan seems logical and gives the Trump Team something to answer the         critics with.

 Committing US forces to the conflict area is not a concept Trump campaigned on and that issue would come under immediate attack by his opponents. The size of the force and the duration of   the mission would be the first two talking points.

Who’s on-board with this plan?

 Some “rumors” say the Turks and the Russians are good with the idea. Rumor! I can guarantee  you Assad is not okay with the concept! I can tell you the Iranians are really not okay with the     idea! We know the Turks have been calling for such a plan from the very beginning of the  conflict. Can the US drive one of those wedges I’ve been talking about between the Turks and the Tsar? Just how bad does the US need to keep Turkey in the Western Camp? If the Russian    are onboard with the idea, what does that say for Assad? Look. The Russians submitted a “Draft” Constitution for the Syrians at the latest round of so called Peace Talks. What kind of  message does that send when another nation drafts another nation’s new Constitution? I’ve  said it for the past four years; Assad doesn’t determined the future of Syria. The Russians and to some extent the Iranians pull the strings. Assad is the Eye Doctor with a title.

   The “Rumor Mill” has the Turks, the Russians and the US holding safe zones in Syria. Separate  and based upon geographically important areas. That same rumor mill has Iran planning no official role in any of the process! Some say the Shia Militias would be told to go back to Iraq. I simply don’t see how the Persians sign on to any of this. Hezbollah’s losses in Syria have been huge and to end the process by being told to go home, I’m betting that won’t happen. In that part of the world, who you shoot at can change with one text message!

  Plan! Yes, you can bet a “plan” has been developed for some time now. It’s what the US military does best! Is there a base plan that simply needs modifications based upon new factors? Yes. Is actually executing such a concept complicated? Oh…..absolutely!

Kurds? Where are the Kurds in the plan? Does the dream of an independent Kurdistan once  again go up in smoke? Do the Kurds agree to this plan? Where they in on the discussion? The  odds are, if this conversation has taken place, it took place between the Turks, Russians and the Trump Team with little input from the Iranians or the Kurds. Backdoor briefings to some of the    other key players in the region, Israel, Jordan and Egypt and maybe even a few GCC members,  well, that’s possible. But, it depends on what level of fidelity this plan actually has reached.

Messaging:

Here is something we may need to think about. Perhaps this was not the official announcement  of the plan? Perhaps this was a message to the Russians and the Turks. We know the Trump Team has been talking to the Russians and you can bet the Russian have been talking to the Turks about what the US has said to them, at least to some degree! Perhaps, just perhaps, this is   yet another indication of how the Trump Team intends to work “Information Operations”? Sit back, make a bold statement to the press and then watch, at all levels, the communications it creates. It’s a process the Russians are master of. Messaging is a tool President Trump learned  as a Businessman and he absolutely has carried that skill with him to the White House.

Conclusion:        

 Is the US about to embark on a mission inside of Syria? I doubt it. It could be true, but something  tells me the reaction to the “message” is what the Trump Team is looking for. Two things are happening as I write this. One, the Turks are wondering if the Russians are working with the US without telling the Turks. Two, the Iranians are wonder the same thing!  Fascinating how a single sentence from a powerful person like the US President can set so much in motion. I think Trump is Master of Information Operations and I think he is better at this skill craft than his Intelligence            Community is. Let’s see what unfolds!