RUSSIAN PLANNING AND HOW DOES IT WORK?

Well... if you noticed, last night I stated the Tsar would not hesitate to move into the Ukraine...yes.... the Crimean is still part of the Ukraine.. at least for now....

When I woke this morning and read about the two airfields... Areal Ports of Demarcation / APODs / in the eyes of military planners.... I realized the Tsar was underway with his operation.

Now to say he is underway with his operation is to imply this whole thing was a deliberate action.

Well, that may be how the common, layperson perceives the statement so let me clarify what I mean here.

Every modern military has a process for contingency planning.

I can assure you the concept of having to "defend" / occupy the Crimean and even all of the Ukraine has been written time and time again.

Military plans have levels of detail that are simply amazing and can easily number in the thousands of pages especially when it is a regional level "war plan".

Yes.. I said "war plan".

If anyone truly thinks the Russian forces have only spent the last six days figuring out what they should do and how they should do it, then they have no concept of how planning actually takes place.

What the Russian did and are doing is executed some modified version of a more complex plan.

In military terminology; Russia is executing "Crisis Planning" based on Deliberate Planning.

Why is this important at this point in time?

Why is this worthy of me mentioning it rather than talking about what the West might or could do in reaction to the events of today?

Well, for one thing, the Western military planners started tracking this event from the assumption the Russians would be executing a known plan with mods based upon political inputs.

Again, why is that important?

As yourself this question.

How much effort has gone into knowing what these Russian plans might be?

How much effort has the Ukrainian military gone to in order to be prepared for just such an event taking place?

Here is the point I love to make.... How many Ukrainian Officers know interracial parts of the Russian plan and have changed their minds on who they side with?

I just love that one given I know the Russians are asking themselves the same question.

Sides are being and have been drawn.

Those that might jump ship are anticipated, but it's the ones who are not anticipated that can come back to haunt both sides.

Ok, back to the real issue at hand.

If we accept the fact the Russian forces are executing a version of a set plan, then the actions that may come next are not simply based on what some outside player says or comments on.

Simply put, the events of the next few days will not be some knee-jerk reaction.

It's the reason we say troops at the airports without magazines in their weapons this morning.

At this "phase" of the plan, it was anticipated they would not be needed or might even be used to send a quiet message to the West that, "things are not that bad yet".

Finally; Here is the most important thing to remember about deliberate military planning and it's an age old saying.

" No plan survives contact with the enemy"!

Everything seems to be going the way of the Russian, but that will change virtually in a flash.. and that flash will come from the muzzle of the other sides weapons.

Even then, "guidance" on how to far to let an event escalate becomes part of military planning, that is up until the event begins to change the perception of the operation.

At that point it time, things historically get out of hand and deliberate planning gives way to field level leadership..

Who are the "field leaders" the Russians  have sent into Ukraine / Crimea?

That is  a very....very ..important question and it will come up soon!