SOUTHERN SYRIA. STICK TO THE SIMPLE VERSION OF THE
STORY.
The attached article by Mona Alami
is a well written snapshot of what is about to take place in Southern Syria.
It’s complicated to follow and written at a level many will find filled with
too much detail. That is why my comments I posted on the site were much more
simplistic.
A well written article. If you make this event as simplistic as
possible, it becomes easier to understand what is taking place and what is at
stake. Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iranian supported units in that
area. That is not up for negotiation and the Russians and Americans understand
this. Russia's ability to control the actions of Iran are growing more limited
by the day. The so called "Alliance" was nothing more than an attempt
by both parties to manipulate the other to their advantage. Iran cannot allow
Russia to control the fate of Syria. If Iran doesn't agree to the terms the Russians
have set with Israel and the US, then Moscow will allow the Iranian and
Hezbollah forces to be decimated. This has already happened numerous times as
Moscow has attempted to show Tehran the cost of not going along with the plan.
Thus, the 2nd meeting between the Russians and the IDF, last week, was a
"Deconfliction “process prior to IDF operations. Why has Syria's assault
not taken place yet, as Assad stated over a week ago? Because Moscow has given
Assad a choice. Follow Tehran or follow Moscow. Finally. the IDF will not wait.
No amount of verbal threats or blustering talk from Hezbollah will prevent the
IDF from acting as soon as they deem it is time. Moscow has cleared the way for
that event.
As is often the case, the more complex the description of a
pending event becomes, the harder it is for people to understand what is truly
at stake. So, again, let me be perfectly clear. Nobody is gong to convince Israel
they should accept some level of Iranian influence in Southern Lebanon. Moscow has stated Israel has agreed to the Iranians
pulling some 45 miles away, but I’ve not heard that from Israel. What I have heard
Israel say was the simplistic warning that no permanent, military or militia location
will be tolerated in Syria. How convinced was Moscow this statement is true?
Why do you think the second meeting with the IDF took place?
Why is this different?
Northern
Syria is all about the Kurds, the detreating relationship between the West / US
/ and Turkey, oil and gas, Russia desire to control that market, Moocow’s
relationship with DC, Moscow’s attempt to degrade NATO by pulling Turkey away from
the West, a mad man who thinks he’s the next Ottoman Sultan and last but not
least, Iran’s dreams of expansion. Yep, Northern Syria, if you cut the country just
North and South, is far different that Southern Syria. Southern Syria is about
one thing. Israel. Iran will not be allowed to threaten Israel from Southern
Syria…….period! Israel’s statement about “all of Syria” could be a bargaining
point factored into it’s talks with Moscow, but the issue of support operations,
besides what Hezbollah has in Lebanon, is a non-starter. Yes, Israel will destroy
Syrian forces if needed. That is why Moscow has given Assad a choice and that
choice has Tehran furious. Moscow’s words are simplistic, but in another language.
“Plata or Plomo” …..Plata being Moscow…Plomo being the IDF. Poor Eye Doctor. It’s
been a hard eight years.
