HOW CAN IT ALL GET OUT OF CONTROL?

Let's start by assuming that nobody involved in the coming events in September desires a "Regional War".

Now let's take a look at how events could start at a limited level and spiral out of control.

Assume the Palestinian Statehood protest start perhaps one to two days before the UN vote, of course we are assuming there is a vote.

Assume the protest groups have been infiltrated by instigators and agitators from several organizations such as Hezbollah and other Gaza based extremist cells.

As was the case two months ago, the instigators understand there must be violence and the violence must be against the demonstrators.

The IDF will hold the line of protest making their way into settlement neighborhoods, but depending on the size of the crowds, that task may become very difficult.

Assume at some point shots will be fired and there will be casualties.

Casualties will be the trigger for the groups that do plan on increasing the violence to take whatever actions they have planned.

Plan on mortars  and rockets being fired into Israel.

Plan on the IDF retaliating into Gaza by air.

Now, remember, this is all probably going to take place just prior to the vote.

Don't forget the PA, Abbas, is not the one that wants violence before the vote.

It's most likely not Hamas as well.

It's Iran and it's supported groups that will bring this violence.

If the rocket attacks are large enough more than 100 in a 24 hr period, then the IDF will be hard pressed to take greater action all the time coming under intense "outside" pressure to not react too dramatic.

What Iran will need at this point is Israeli casualties and more than just one group at attack.

Assume an attempt to give Israel casualties at several locations over an extended period of time; perhaps 24 to 48 hrs.

If this happens, the IDF will be forced to take actions beyond limited air strikes; although the concept of concentrated air strikes without ground operations is probably on the table.

 Now; here comes the event that could light the fuse!

Assume a series of attacks from other than Gaza.

If Assad is part of the Iranian plan, the attacks could come from Hezbollah territory inside Lebanon.

At that point, I think we will witness the beginning of an event at least as large as the operations in 2006/8.

The UN will be virtually in a state of gridlock.

If the vote is canceled or delayed due to the violence, the people who did not intend to be part of the violence will then join in.

That is the critical point!

The is the point that Israel must decide how far they are willing to  go.

Iran will then have what it needs... the PA general public, to include Hamas,( even if the MB tells them otherwise) in the streets and being killed in open view of the media.

Where it all goes from there will depend on how far Israel and Iran are willing to take it, because honestly... the UN or the West will not be able to slow Israel down.

September of 2011 could be historical not because of a PA statehood vote, but because the course of history of the Middle East may be changed.