NOSTRADAMUS?  I HOPE NOT!? ( Tunisian Virus)

Back in February of this year I posted this viewpoint wishing I was going to be wrong.

I still have the same wish, but I fear I may have hit the nail on the head.

A major difference between February and now that makes this event potentially far more realistic is the drastic downturn in the US economy.

I think I have addressed this fear one other time since February, but I didn't search for the post, but I believe the issue I addressed is the impact Social Medias and Social networking could have on this event in the US.

Ok, so lets get right down to it.

I will address three basic questions in an attempt to paint a picture of what might be going on in the US.

HOW DID IT GET HERE?

Some, to include me, would say it was bound to happen and some will say they are surprised it took this long.

Some will say it even tried to get started back in Wisconsin months ago, but I'm not sold on that one.

The media, Al Jazeera and a few others may have given a weak attempt to " make the link", but they simply didn't put a lot of energy into it.

In a free society with truly free press, coupled a with completely  networked  population, it was simply bound to happen.

What is interesting is how fast it has become organized.

I'm sure the paranoia is already out there about, "who is behind this"?

I remember when I was a kid, every time something bad happened in this country, half of my hometown would say, "it's those damn Commie"!  Funny... Now that I am older.. I know a few times they were right.....

I'm not sold anyone is  'behind' this Social Revolution / Social Injustice movement, at least not from the standpoint of a central point of origin.

As mush as this event will please our enemies such as Iran, they simply are not capable of organizing such an event on our land.

Just about all the other Nation States are simply too tied to the day to day economic cycle to attempt such a movement.

Most are worried more about the " Virus" coming to their shores than they are spreading it to some other land.

I know I talked for weeks about the " Weaponization" of the movement, months ago, but in the case of the event showing up in the US, I simply don't think that is the issue.

Now, having said that, we must anticipate our enemies taking full advantage of any event they can antagonize now the demonstrations have taken hold here.

That leads me to the next question I will try to answer!

WHO MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS EVENT?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record... AGAIN... I think you know my first answer.

Who needs the eyes of the world taken off their problems right now?

Yep... Iran!!!

So, how could Iran leverage what may or may not take place in the US?

I hunch is it will difficult for them to really impact events here, at least physically!

What they will be fully ready to do is take advantage of the media coverage.

Press statements and Political Demagoguery are key tools in the hands of the Iranian government.

A good example of how they can turn one event into another might be the UNSC vote  on the Palestinian statehood issue.

A few good editorials by Hamas, Hezbollah or others about how the people of the US should take to the streets if their government VETO's the Palestinian vote in the UNSC is more than possible.

You won't see Iranian "agents" sneaking around in the shadows, although Hezbollah has operatives just about everywhere.

Getting a " Tent City" full of youthful, philosophical dreamers to " March" is not going to be that hard to  do; especially if they are readily available from the " Occupy" movement.

The bottom line is the most influential organization with this movement in the US is going to be the homegrown Socialist and Activist.

All the department chairs from all the left leaning universities will get a chance to feel young again...

They can dream like it's the 60s all over again and yell into their megaphones, or do YOUTUBE clips to their heart's content.

Economic times in the US and social media could easily create the " Perfect Storm" for the US and that leads me to my last question to answer.

SO HOW BAD COULD THIS GET?

Honestly; it's very difficult to predict.

For all the badmouthing our civilian law enforcement gets, they are the best in the world and I can't help but believe they have been thinking about this possibility for months now.

The other real good news is, these protest have a long history of being peaceful and that is a key to not letting these events get out of control.

The law enforcement agencies know this and they will do everything they can to keep the whole process "civil".

Having said that, as was the case in Egypt, London England, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Bahrain ect.. ect.  it only takes one or two violent events to turn things ugly.

Even in the " ugly' stage, the people in this country have a very good since for what is going too far and the media knows how to keep a close eye on both the protestors and the law enforcement agencies.

To put it simply, the US is far better at letting the population express itself than just about every other country in the world.

we have come a long... long ways from the days of the 60s Riots and we have come a long ways even from the Rodney King event.

Does that mean these events will be without violence?

I hope so, but everyone should be ready for any contingency.

England was not, at look how things swung completely out of control in the course of twenty four hours!

IN CONCLUSION:

The US must take several factors into consideration as it gets ready for the next few days or weeks.

1.  The economy has been and will continue to be the major battle cry.

Jobs and Entitlements will form the cornerstones of the debate.

2.  Social networking will take this movement to a whole new level.

The government and the law enforcement agencies can not plan based on what they learned from the 60s or any other Mass Demonstration event; at least not to great detail.

Hopefully they have spent the time to talk to England and Israel about " Lessons Learned" over the past six months.

If there is any one topic I am convenced the US government, federal, state and local  lacks understanding of, it's the impact of Social Networking on organizational movements.

Oh.. God forbid the FBI or CIA or NSA or any other 3 digit agency stands up and makes the comments they have expereince with Social networking based on the " War on Terrorism".

The fatal error for the US will be to lose the trust of the public watching these events take place.

More to follow on this once the first round of Nation Wide protest take place on Thursday.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/02/is-tunisian-virus-coming-to-us-i-found.html