PRESIDENT TRUMP AND NATO 

What are the real expectations of President Trump when it comes to the issue of NATO.  Yes, every NATO member heard what he said on the campaign trail and yes all of them know what is said during a campaign is often lost the day after the voting is complete. So, what is President Trump really going to do on the topic of NATO? More importantly, when might he address the topic? The truth of the matter is, the issue of NATO will most likely not work its way onto the table until several other key issues are addressed first. Why? Because the American people really don’t care what Trump said about NATO. Most of them probably don’t even know what his stance was to begin with. I would be willing to bet some of the people he has chosen to be his advisors, especially military advisors, may have already been given guidance on what to say and who to say it to. The idea of retired Generals taking unofficial messages to key NATO members is more than possible. It’s highly unlikely it hasn’t happened. That is what backdoor politics is all about. Perhaps the topic will not even resurface? If it does, it will not be because of the NATO members pushing the issue. One person may place the NATO topic on the table.

The Tsar!

If backdoor, unofficial communications are already underway, then we can assume one of the primary topics is the future relationship between the Tsar and President Trump. We can also assume the topic of NATO is front and center from the Tsar’s side of the table. If you want to see the point in time the NATO members begin to worry about President Trump’s vision for NATO, it will be prior to the meeting between the Tsar and President Trump. Yes, some of the backdoor communications on the topic will have already taken place, but the NATO members will be more than concerned on what the Tsar has to say to President Trump on the topic and that slice of the puzzle may not take place until after the actual discussion. The US can give NATO members a feeling for where they stand on NATO, but does the inputs of the Tsar change the game? Does the Tsar’s plan for addressing NATO with President Trump have unforeseen impacts? Yep. You can bet it will. Why? I will tell you why. Remember what I’ve been saying about the Chinese and the Russians and the potential for a Trump Presidency. The “Plan”. The Tsar’s plan will include a huge annex on the topic of NATO and as a matter of fact, I am willing to bet NATO may very well be the centerpiece of the “plan”! NATO’s actions in Eastern Europe are far more disturbing to the Tsar and the Russian people than the American public realizes.

Bargaining Chip.

Trump is a shrewd businessman and it’s not difficult for me to believe he may very well see NATO as a bargaining chip with the Tsar. It’s also very likely, the Tsar has anticipated this chip! If you are sitting there thinking, “Wont the NATO members worry the US may use NATO’s future as a bargaining chip? Will the US let us in on the plan”? Yep. That is exactly what could be taking place. Remember, Trump’s comments and attitude about NATO played much heavier in Europe than it did here. If Trump has team of experts working on the NATO issue, the team working backdoor issues, then some of that fear may be reduced. Again. That only holds true until the Tsar has a chance to hear the pitch. Is Trump the type of leader who would look at an issue such as NATO as a barging chip? Absolutely, even if some advise him not to. As a matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he approaches many topics from the standpoint of having, “bargaining chips”. Bargaining, negotiating as politicians call it, is the cornerstone of the international business world. A world Trump has been playing in for years.

The future of NATO.

Although NATO is not a first one hundred day item for the inbound President, It is a topic that will be placed on the table and when it does, we will see if Trump’s perceptions of NATO was just campaign rhetoric or his real opinion. NATO members need to pay their own way. If that is truly a stance the US is going to take, then the NATO members are going to need to know that soon. Again, the issue of backdoor communications held by retired Generals as they talk to old friends. If we hear more talk, even more than we are hearing now, of a European Defense Force, then we may have an indication the Trump team has been showing the NATO members where the US is heading.

NATO and the Tsar. That is going to be a very important event that many in the US simply are not aware of. They will be! Changes in the US and the classic Law of Second Order Effects!  Trump knows the casino business and "chips"!