TRUMP TWEETS THE IRANIAN PUBLIC 

Last week I mentioned it was noteworthy how President Trump ended his address to the nation over the attack on US facilities in Iraq with a statement to the “Iranian people”. I commented on how this, “reach out” would be perceived in Tehran. If you didn’t read the blog post I am referring to, then let me give you a cheat sheet version. Reaching out to the Iranian public, in the minds of Iranian leadership, is tantamount to using a different weapon system; the weapon of Information Operations or, the old terminology, Phycological Warfare. Yep, in the minds of Iranian leadership, the US President attacked then with his words. What Team Khamenei heard in those closing words from the US President was, “ Rise up against Tehran and you will find a new and wonderful place in this world”. Within days of those closing remarks, the youth of Iran, to some degree, was back on the streets, protesting a corrupt government. Who does Team Khamenei hold responsible for this latest round of civic unrest? You know who. More importantly, was that the intent of the the President Trump? Absolutely! Given Tehran sees these statements by Team Trump as a weapon attack, are there consequences? Yep. 

The Shoot down: 

Why did the average person on the streets of Iran become so upset with the “accidental” , incompetent, downing of the Ukrainian airliner?  Was it because Iranian’s were onboard? Not really. Was that enough to send the people into the streets? What the shooting down of the airliner was is simple. It was just another example of how tired the Iranian people are of their government. During the funeral spectacle for Soleimani, I kept mentioning how the photographs told the real story. The lack of the youth of Iran taking part in the whole event was telling. Yes, family members of the military and the Basij members flooded the streets, but the faces were dramatically different than those who protested the downing of the passenger jet. To put it another way, one crowd was based on those who live under the oppression of Tehran and the other was made up of those who live life well thanks to Tehran. A nation divided? You bet. A divide that could destabilize Tehran? That’s the plan and President Trump’s final statement we are talking about, well, that’s part of the plan. 

Consequences:

I know I have addressed this issue before, but everyone one needs to understand, when you use a “weapon” you will almost always be responded to by a weapon. Tehran sees President Trump’s words as a weapon, a weapon Tehran cannot use in response, well, with the exception of the opposition party in the US. Come to think of it, the party politics in the US is a powerful weapon for Team Khamenei. Anyway, my point is this, Tehran sees these protest by their people as being exploited by the US. Team Khamenei understands the weapon being used against them and that has only one outcome, well, two. 1. Counter the attack with weapons of your own, the militias and other proxy fighters. 2. Suppress the weapon system being used by the enemy. How does Tehran do that? They already have been. Those 1500 massacred people in Iran, that’s Tehran’s version of weapon’s suppression. In the end, what Team Khamenei believes is that Team Trump is out or regime change in Iran and even though Team Trump says they are not in favor of “Regime Change”, it’s obvious, to Tehran and others, they are absolutely  in favor of such an outcome. The trick becomes, how the change comes about? 

Regime Change: Version 2.0:

To the US NEOCONs, what does regime change imply? Some would say, the spreading of Democracy. Others would counter with, contracts, billions of government dollars and profit margins that are unmatched. Who has the right definition? I will let you be the judge, but look at the amount of money spent in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

It’s 2020 and the tools of regime change, well, they need change as well. Can you get the people of a nation to bring about regime change? Have we forgotten the Arab Spring? Was not social uprising the cornerstone of Communism? What is the Anarchist plan for bringing down governance? Look, using the public to bring about change is nothing new. Making regime change into an industry, well, that was some twist to the  process that started after the last two world wars. What’s the saying, 

“ Capitalist based Democracies don’t go to war with each other”? Sounds great and it’s a great excuse for occupying a defeated enemies land. At the end of the day, regime change has gone from a way of insuring one’s enemies now longer have the ability to threaten you, to finding a way to make a lot of money, post conflict. Does the US and the West need regime change in Iran? Yes, but it needs to be based on eliminating a potential threat. By the way, I really can’t stand all this talk about, “Eminent”. Soleimani was or was not posing an, “eminent” threat? Why in the name of anything that is based on logic would anyone wait until a threat, a deadly threat, is “eminent”? This whole “ Eminent” issue is complete hogwash. Tell the owner of the threat one time, “ stop of suffer the consequences”. If that doesn’t work, strike and strike so hard the others watching lose the desire to even appear to pose a threat. If you get stuck on, “ well, that takes away the ability to negotiate peacefully”, than you will become the victim. Not liking the way someone is doing something is far different than realizing they are preparing to do you harm. Understand the difference or go work for the Department of State or UN. 

Are there dangers in relying on the public to bring about regime change? Ask the people who started the revolution against Shah in Iran. Hint, it was not the Islamic Revolution. Yes, as I have said before,  movements are often highjacked. If the US President is successful in getting the youth of Iran to remove Team Khamenei, what comes next? This is the point where the NEOCONs try to make their money. “ If you just let the country fall into turmoil, something worse might take over”. A great pitch for sticking your fingers into a nation in crisis, but is it true. When the colonial powers in Africa pulled out, most of Africa fell into crisis. The Cold War inflamed this crisis, but at the end of the day, what is the threat to the stability of the US from this enduring African crisis? Human waves you say. Mass migrations into Europe? Wait. Has someone used this uncontrolled population weapon against us? Has the prophecy of the NEOCONs come true? Look, toppling a government by using that government’s own population against them is noting new. Worrying that you might make things worse, that’s usually the mindset of academics and Progressives. If Team Trump is taking the 2.O version of regime change as the course of action in Iran, then let’s see if it works. Does someone else control Iran when it’s all said and done? Take the proxy state away from Moscow? Good luck. At the end of the day, if Iran’s military is no longer a threat to the US, than should we really care what comes next? The message is simple, “ threaten me and I will strike you down”. Rebuilding, changing the culture of a region that is 5,000 years old, let that be the vision of someone else. Let Tehran become peaceful and the worries are over. Let Tehran continue to threaten others and those weapons on two feet will just keep coming.  Not an easy answer here, but then again, few answers to complex issues are ever easy.