FOLLOW UP ON RAID INTO SYRIA.

Well, the war of words finally came out today, and it's important to take a look at what those "words" may tell us.

First and foremost, the Iranian response has a little bit of mystery to it, as they often do!!!

The old dry words about Western Zionist actions carried little weight, but the comment about the city of Tel Aviv surly caught the ear of Israel's leadership.

I did find some humor in the Russian comment.

As upset as the Russian could pretend they were, I am sure they are willing to sell replacement units to the Syrian / Iranian governments.

Never miss the opportunity to make a few bucks off a crisis... they might even given them a discount!

As for the Syrian government, they made the most out of the incident.

One of the issues that surly was contemplated prior to the decision to hit the target was the predictable response from Syria / Assad.

One of the consequences of this event was going to be the accusation that the "Rebels" in Syria were being supported by the Israelis and the West!

Of all the statements that could be made, this would be the one that would have the most political / Information Operations / Propaganda value.

Simply put, the attack gave Assad the opportunity to say, " I told you so"!!!

Now, given what the Israeli Air force would be facing in the next conflict with Hezbollah, and there will be one, letting Assad say, " I told you so" is a price easily worth paying.

As for the Syrian comment about a " surprise retaliation", well.....  that will depend on how desperate Assad becomes and if the Iranians allow such an event to take place.

On the issue of comments made about the event, did anyone notice the almost total silence from the GCC countries?

Yep... Go figure!!!

So, did this event cost Israel a few points in the court of world opinion?

Probably, but then again, Israel has been losing that public opinion campaign for years now, so nothing new there.

By the end of the day, I was somewhat disappointed, why I don't know given the shallow level of Western media coverage, over the lack of the "professionals" asking, "what next"?

Will Assad continue to try to leverage the event to shift the story of Zionist, Rebel collaboration?

Maybe, but most who know the region understand this tactic has little to no traction with Assad's real enemies.

Does anyone thing for a minute the Sunni Fundamentalist groups are actually working in concert with the IDF???

Yep,  that story is just not going to get Assad very far, and in reality it has probably already played itself out.

Will Assad try to deflect the conflict by retaliating on Israel?

As I stated last night,  I seriously doubt it.

Iran simply is not prepared to go there just now.

If we see signs of Iran preparing itself for conflict, and trust me we would, then I would become worried.

Iran can't bless off on Assad taking action on Israel in the hopes of it maintaining the actions of a proxy war without fallout for Iran.

Short answer... Iran can't allow Assad to start something Iran doesn't want.

So, how about Hezbollah?

A very different option for both Assad and Iran, with the exception Assad gets no vote on tasking Hezbollah... that authority remains with Tehran.

Could Hezbollah conduct operations that would force the IDF to respond?

Absolutely, but again, the danger would become, who does the IDF respond to?

As I've said before, If Israel is forced to deal with Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, thereby painting a picture of the IDF taking actions inside of Lebanon, then Israel will most likely take all the actions they have been preparing for at one time... namely ... Iran!!

A few rockets from Lebanon into Israel may not be out of the question, given Israel will be very reluctant to attack a second Arab country in such short order.

Again, doing the deliberate planning process at the strategic level of anticipating retaliatory events is something Israel is very good at.

The " plan" to deal with a limited Hezbollah action, out of Lebanon, is ready for execution.... you can bank on it.

This event may lead to other actions and I am worried many have not thought that concept through, but I can assure you the Israelis have!

That doesn't equate into everything going according to "plan", but mistakes are most likely going to be made on the side of Assad, not on the side of Israel.

Oh ya.,... How about all those Anti Air units Syria is said to have?

How did that work for them?

They were  surprised by two jets...... I don't think they wish to see what could be sent towards them..... but then again Assad may just wish for such at thing and when you get right down to it....... that is what really worries me!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-31/204406-hezbollah-slams-israeli-attack-on-syria.ashx#axzz2JbHdURcI