RUSSIA… “UKRAINE: THE DANGER OF CONFIDENCE!   

I just have to wonder if Mr. Yatsenyuk did when he blamed the security forces in Odessa for the forty + deaths two days ago.

No doubt the loyalty of the local law enforcement agencies in nearly all the contested areas, that is what they really are now…contested, was and is a major issue for the government in Kiev.

Here is the problem with pushing this event directly into the laps of the security forces leadership, if any of their forces were still on the fence, they are not now!

If you wish to make an organization change sides, then just blame them for multiple murders…..tell them you will have an investigation and they will be held responsible.

One day Yatsenyuk states, the rebels will be crushed, and the next day, he is shocked by the actions of those he is responsible for…oh yes… he is responsible for their actions….he did assume the title of “leader” did he not…he speaks for the new government correct?

And what does Mr. Yatsenyuk believe is going to happen with the remaining security forces in the contested areas?

What level of confidence do they have in Kiev, “having their backs”?

Weak, uncoordinated and reactionary governance are not the tools needed to be successful.

Once again, the Kiev government has played right into the hands of the Tsar.

“Ukraine is beyond our control”:

What other statement could Moscow put out to the word after the events in Odessa?

By the way; has anyone stopped to think how important a city Odessa is tot the Russian?

Look into it if you don’t understand that question.

As many of us have been saying for weeks now; the Tsar / Russia / needs to build his case for action in Ukraine and Odessa came right on schedule... like a train pulling into the station.

Are we closer to the main event everyone is looking for?

Are we about to see Russian tank units crossing into Ukraine?

Again, as I said two days ago, does it need to happen that way?

Is that the actual plan the Tsar has in place?

Close order, combined arms combat is impossible in suburban areas without large civilian casualties.

Why would the Tsar risk this image with the rest of the word?

Remember, this is a well scripted plan on the Tsar’s part and large civilian casualties based on Russian military actions is not part of that plan.

I’ve been playing around with a theory, one that is based on  one of the main goals of the Tsar’s master plan for reinstating the Russian Empire.

Showing the world a “new, modern, state of the art fighting force that is capable of confronting the West in the 21^st Century; that is a primary issue with this Ukrainian event.

Tanks rolling over buildings with artillery firing in support and bombs going off everywhere you look….that is the “old look” of war.. unless you are out to take over the world and you don’t care about opinion.

The Tsar’s military leaders having been building what they believe is the next generation of warfare, both technology wise and tactical execution; or so they think they have!

Every politician and General loves a great Senior Leader’s review of a glorious exercise depicting the decisive and innovative ways it’s military is prepared to defend the nation.

Scripted and always with victorious outcomes is the blanket that convinces political leaders to “move ahead with the plan”!

So, what does this have to do with the Ukraine?

Ok, what did the Tsar’s military leaders tell him should be the plan for actions in the Ukraine?

Now, realize these military leaders were given the responsibility of executing military operations in a manner that doesn’t degrade the real master plan; the reemergence of the Russian Empire!

Thus; the Russian military planners had to script the conflict side of the master plan to fit the overall plot and killing thousands of civilians in the Ukraine is not acceptable.

Getting the new government blamed for the deaths of civilians, that is part of the master plan for both the military leaders in Moscow and the Tsar.

Now, here is where the real danger comes back into play.

As I said last week, many of the current Russian military leaders may “talk the talk” of modern warfare, most are not sold on the concept.

A well scripted plan that looked great on paper and worked like a charm in the exercise mode, can fall apart at light speed once it’s underway.

So, my point is this; confidence is a deadly trait when planning an event.

Conversely, confidence is critical once execution is underway.

If he Russian military has made the Tsar “confident” during the planning phase of this operation, then the dangers are more than real.

Old military leaders fall back on what they know in times of trouble…..tanks.. .artillery…. mass on mass... and soon the most horrific event, in the Tsar’s eyes, comes to life… international media showing the Russian military crushing Ukrainian towns.

If you think, “well, if that starts to happen, the Tsar will just stop the event before it does even more damage to his international image”!

Wrong!

Stopping is the equivalent of defeat; just ask the Israeli / IDF / to talk about the 2006 conflict.

If the Russians have a plan that is too complex for a military that is truly not modernized and that is controlled by “old school” leaders, then that plan could quickly dissolve into a disaster both militarily and politically.

Just how confident is the Tsar?

Is the confidence based on what he has been shown on paper?

Remember what confidence on paper brings.

Last, but not least!

Side Note:

It’ L -6…. 6 hrs prior to launch of operations into the Ukraine, and suddenly the Russian communications HQ forward report that all movement control networks have been loaded inaccurate data and support operations will not be able to execute for perhaps days.

How did this happen?

Who did it?

Who do you blame?

How do you prove it?

What does it change?

Do you go or not go?

The Tsar is furious!

What do you do…..what do you do?

Forward this to your friends. It’s going to lead to a great “what if” for the next post.