A SURVEY THAT TELLS FAR MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK.

Again tonight, I am going to continue to look at the issue of Syria and Iran as it continues to be the most important and volatile issue in the Middle East.

 Although the DoS conducts a series of detailed surveys on Middle Eastern
societal trends, this one presents a timely look into one of the most
volatile issues taking place in that part of the world..... Syria!!!

The opportunity for Iran to save Assad is quickly coming to a close and
Iran's leadership knows that.

The fact the two Iranian leaders are in a state of conflict only insures that
decisions on how to react to Syrian evens will remain uncoordinated and
poorly thought out.

If the time has come for Iran to abandon Assad, rather than create an
external threat to the region to divert the attention from Syria, then true
panic could be about to take control in Iran.

Did the situation with Assad create the Assassination plot?

Was it an attempt to divert the world's attention from Syria?

It doesn't seem logical this would work, but Iran is becoming more illogical
with each passing day.

Rumors of Iran looking for some new "working" relationship with an Assad
replacement has been flying around the Middle East for over two months.

Iran has and probably continues to talk to Turkey about the future of Syria;
Assad name is becoming less of the center piece of any negotiations.

Iran must look for some common ground with Turkey if it is to stand a chance
of controlling the future leadership of Syria.

Frankly, I think the time of Iran calling the shots in Syria are all but
over.

What Iran has to settle for now is agreeing with Turkey on what the next
Syrian government should look like.

The problem will be the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, once again, will be the
issue for Iran.

The Sunni and Shia  dynamic  sets the tone.

What should terrorize Iran more than anything is not just the pending loss of
Syria, but the fact the Arab Spring will spread from Syria to Iran itself!

Just look at the survey results and it is easy to see the future of Iran's
current leadership.

I have said this for months, but Ahmadinejad only chance is to let the Arab
Spring come to Iran and align himself with the Persian Nationalist Youth
Movement.

He will have to make a desperate attempt to abandon the Khamenei leadership.

He will have to show a future for "Persians" that speaks to the dreams of
young, educated Iranians not the Mullah's and the repressive past!

He will have to do this knowing he will not only alienate the Shia, but the
Sunni Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as well.

I don't think he can do it.... but someone in Iran might!

Who becomes that someone and can this course of action take place before
Khamenei decides to crush the movement or distract the region with a proxy
war?

If Khamenei waits too long, the Civil / Sectarian / War in Syria will be
underway; it actually already is!

This is why Syria is important.

This is why the events in Syria far outweigh the issues in Egypt... Libya.... ect .... even the Palestinian Statehood issue; for the moment!

Here is my bet....

Khamenei makes a move on Ahmadinejad and then quickly creates a crisis for
Saudi and the GCC...

He can't go to war with Israel.. that would destroy Iran and all of it's dreams both of a Persian Empire and or, depending on what leader's eyes your are looking through, an Iranian Caliph!

Khamenei can chose a proxy war with the GCC , namely Saudi, but even that runs the risk of spreading and escalation into Iran's destruction.

  The bottom line is this; the Middle Eastern fuse is almost to the bomb and this survey proves it.

http://aai.3cdn.net/e0279d08c84eee1ebf_iqm6b1t2w.pdf