Now, I know several times in the past two years I have
talked about the potential "relationship" between Iran and North
Korea and I am still of a firm belief this "relationship" exist.
Having said that, let me take yet another stab at the
"what if" game.
What if the North Koreans and the Iranians had a
"deal" to stress the US
and the West during a time of threat to ether North
Korea or Iran ?
As we all know, both have been front page news for months
now and both have released their own version of threats towards the US ..... Insert
" The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend" here!!!
Let me try to answer the basic question of, "Is this
time different... Is the North Korean threat more believable or more dangerous
this time around.
As you probably have heard time and time again in the past
few days or weeks, most of the Talking Heads are still stuck on stupid!!!
Stupid being the canned answer of, "The North really
doesn't want a real war with the US
or South Korea "!!!!
I have two theories why this answer remains consistent.
1. it's the
"party line" that keeps the stock market from over reacting.
2. Those that really
have no clue what takes place in North Korea ,
other than cocktail parties with social elites, really do believe North Korea is afraid
of generalized warfare.
Ok, after tearing down the accreditations of those who say North Korea
will not "go over the edge", let me make an argument why I, like many
who are like me, believe this time is truly different.
THE ART OF TALKING
TOO MUCH:
First off, it's a simple fact of life that when people make
huge statements about what they are willing and able to do and then such things so often..... Chicken Little..... everyone
begins to simply ignore them.
This is, to some extent, where North Korea now finds itself.
Simply put.... too many threats with no action leads to
being ignored.
Now, it's natural for men... ones that take this position.....
to get upset when they realize they are being ignored and that often leads to
them doing something totally unexpected.
LOSING OLD FRIENDS OR AT LEAST THINKING YOU ARE LOSING THEM:
As I commented on a few weeks ago, for decades the Chinese
have been the backstop for the little Bully named North Korea .... " Teeth and Gums".
Well, it's now more than possible the North believes this
relationship is at best waning.
It's no secret many of the Chinese news editorials in the
past two or three months have hinted to the fact North Korea can no longer be
allowed to shape the "destiny" of the Chinese people.
Simply put, I believe the North Korean leadership has the
perception that China 's
future plans do not involve the wellbeing of North Korea .
Remember what I said the last time I talked about this
issue.
A country of 1.4 Billion may be willing to see a limited war
involving only 30 million, non Chinese, as a means of informing the US, when
it's over, they no longer have a real reason to keep the force structure in the
Pacific.
Now, would this work?
Probably not, but from the mindset of the Chinese or the
perception of the North, they both make for a non typical dangerous environment
this time around.
Before I go back to my theory of " Enemies of
Enemies", let me make one off the cuff but justified statement.
Lets say you are a common North Korean citizen and you know
that every day the best you and your children are going to do is split one bowl
of rice, perhaps every other day!!!!
You also realize, trust me some do, that if a war does take
place and the Northern government is defeated, then the aid that will flow into
North Korea will be ten times what you receive day to day....
If you get where I am heading here, then you now know what
most Chinese planers have worried about for years... a North Korean population
that turns on it's own oppressive leadership as the country is devastated in a
war with the US and South Korea.
If you blow this theory off, then you really don't
understand the dynamics of the Korean
Peninsula .
Back to the Enemy of my Enemy issue:
Before anyone questions why would Iran
and North Korea
agree to support each other in a time of crisis, let me ask one simple
question.
Why not?
Tell me why Iran would not agree to watch the US absolutely struggle
to deal with a generalized war on the Korean Peninsula at the same time
Hezbollah is launching an all out attack into Israel from Lebanon?
What mystical event could prevent this from happening?
Why would it not be the most ideal time for Iran
to preempt the pending attack on their nuclear weapons program... a program the
North Koreans are helping with...????
So, you should get my point by now.
Simply saying " it cannot happen" or " It's
not likely" is not good enough.
Someone show me tangible proof it's not going to happen!
Someone show me why President Bush was wrong when he labeled
North Korea and Iran as an
"Axes of Evil".. and if you say Bush was an idiot or a
"cowboy" than you are too uniformed to really realize how the world
works or just how really dangerous the world is!!!
http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/29/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html?hpt=hp_t1