NORTHERN
THUNDER???
Well, talk about polar opposites! Last night was my
returning comments on what I always referred to as, “The big picture”.
Tonight, well, it’s back to the days of event based analysis.
If anyone has paid attention in the past two days, they
would have noticed a rather dramatic, at least dramatic from the Saudi
viewpoint, announcement of the “largest military exercise ever held in the
region”! Well….not exactly accurate, but
let’s let that point sit for a few minutes.
Twenty nations taking part in a military exercise in
Northeastern Saudi. Sounds dramatic and more than suspect given the timing of
events in the region and that is not by accident.
So, what is “Northern Thunder” and how did it seem to come
out of nowhere?
Easy, it didn’t!
Northern Thunder………..the artist formally known as Peninsula
Shield.
What is “Peninsula Shield” you ask? Well…go back and read some of my post from
about three years ago, or, do what everyone under the age of 40 does……google
it!
Is it truly something new?
No.
So, why all the hype?
Again, it’s all about the timing!
What message is Saudi trying to send?
Before that question gets answered and most of the paid
talking heads are scrambling to do just that, let’s verify the event is being
constructed as a “message”. Hint… don’t buy into the “messaging” analysis too
quickly.
Let’s go back and play on of my favorite games. Yep…. “What
if”?
What if Northern Thunder is not just Peninsula Shield remade
as a threat / message to the Russians and the Iranians and oh yes…… the West?
If you are asking yourself, “what is his point? What is he suggesting”, here is my answer.
I’m not convinced Northern Thunder is just about messaging.
In short, I’m not so confident, the Saudi’s are bluffing!
Last week’s announcement they were ready to act in Syria was
not a kneejerk reaction by what the Russians call the Warrior Wanabe Prince!
Many trends have been visible since the change of leadership
in Saudi, well, for those who have been watching.
Look at the trends!
The West / US / has been pulling away from the Gulf States
from the beginning of the Arab Spring when President Obama openly supported the
Muslim Brotherhood.
For over four years now, the Saudis have been in search of a
more secure future, a future not based upon Western support.
Did the US / West get “invited” to take part in Northern
Thunder?
No………….. and the backbone of Peninsula Shied was built upon
Western / US / military support! Think about it.
The relationship between Saudi and Turkey has been a
wavering process thanks to the Ottoman’s support to the Muslim Brotherhood, but
then again, the threat of the Persians…..Persians with Russian support, is the glaring
object that keeps the Royal family up at night. The Enemy of my Enemy….. is
still… my friend…..enemy…..take your pick!
Now….add the Kurdistan issue to the Ottoman’s mix.
Look!
Let’s face some hard facts and then come to back to the
issue of Northern Thunder being nothing more than an idle threat.
Up until the devastation of the American Exceptionalism by
the current administration, did the Saudis or the Gulf members have the will or
capability to go to war on their own?
No!
Do they now?
Do they have a choice?
We need to answer that question before we go any further
with the analysis of what this all could lead to.
Tonight, I touched the topic.
Tomorrow I will go into detail as to what would have to
happen for the Saudi’s to actually move forward with their threats of
intervention in Syria.
Bottom line; do not underestimate what is taking place here.
I can assure you, the Tsar is not! His eyes are on the Ottoman leader, but he
knows his indicators of just how bad this might be also point towards the Saudi
capital.
Dangerous times my friends……very dangerous!!
