Ok: for those of you who don't know what the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is / STL/ try the link attached.
Why is this event important?
Up until the Tunisian Virus events of the past month, the STL process was quickly leading to the very real threat of organized violence in Lebanon that could and still can lead to open conflict between Israel and Iran / Syria / Lebanon / Hamas / Hezbollah.
What is it? Here is the cheap version, but I would recommend you read the link.
In 2005, the Leader of Lebanon was murdered, along with many others, by a huge car bomb. It is common knowledge that Hezbollah was responsible for the event, but with backing from Syria and Iran.
The Government of Lebanon requested an investigation by the UN to determine who was responsible for the event.
Well; the findings are about to be made public and several key members of Hezbollah are probably going to be named as the primary suspects.
Hezbollah / Syria / Iran all know this will seriously hinder the Iranian master plan of having a Iranian controlled, proxy government in control of Lebanon.
Why does Iran want a "controlled" government in Lebanon? Look at the borders of Israel and see if you can figure it out.
If everything goes to Iran's plan, they will have Hamas on one side, Hezbollah on the other and now possibly a anti Israeli government in Egypt. Yep, one that may not be pro Iranian, but one they can secretly work with to conspire against their common enemy; Israel. If you don't think this can happen, look at the Iranian relationship with OBL's people. Never forget one of the oldest sayings in the Middle East, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".
Ok; back to the STL!
As of a few days ago, the Iranians and Hezbollah had the perfect distraction from the STL pending event; Egypt. What worries them now is two issues.
1. The events in Egypt seem to be stabilizing and the US has woken up to the disastrous policy of running around demanding that Mubarak leave now.
2. The United Nations Tribunal is speeding up their timeline for release of its investigation.
Why are they speeding up the timeline you might ask?
a. They realize the maneuver Hezbollah pulled last month of dissolving the government coalition in Lebanon is simply a preemptive strike to avoid the STL findings. The STL is Something the UN has worked too hard for to prove their value to the rest of the world. They are out to prove to the world the UN is capable of investigating international incidents and holding a trial. Scary concept in many ways.
Ok; what is the point of this discussion?
If the STL is successful, and I believe they will be, in naming names in Hezbollah that should stand trial for the events in 2005, then Hezbollah as a potential, acceptable political party in Lebanon is all but wrecked. If that happens, Iran loses a strategic part of their master plan for warfare with Israel. Think of it as the old Soviet Empire losing a key Warsaw Pack Satellite country.
Here is, in my opinion, the crazy part of this whole STL event.
If the STL is somehow defeated or doesn't have the impact of removing Hezbollah from the political arena, then Israel could be faced with a three front war if they have a conflict with Iran.
If Israel sees Hezbollah / Iran / Syria having things their way in Lebanon to the point the Lebanese Army is nothing more than a tool to attack Israel, then warfare in the entire region is more than a possibility!!
Oh ya; here is the kicker; the US has been supplying the Lebanese military for over two years now.
In 1973, the Soviet Union watched billions of dollars of equipment and aid go up in smoke with the defeat of the Arab militaries on the battlefields with Israel. We could be looking at the same thing.
I have just scratched the surface of what this whole STL event could mean to the US and it's allies.
I will concentrate more on this regional topic in the next few nights, given the Egyptian Woodstock seems to be settling in for the long haul!.
