US INTELLIGENCE, "SEES", BUT DO THEY SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE?
It's a fairly safe bet to make the statement a protracted
event is going to take place in Syria when it's
already been going over a year and a half!!!!!
All in all, the first article is a nice, safe forecast that
really doesn't lead to anything.
It's the next two articles that have my interest.
In the past few months, I have broached the issue of what
depths Assad and more importantly Iran would be willing to go to in
order to stay in power.
I've covered my opinion of Assad's "Red Lines" for
taking Syria
into a general war with it's neighbors and the possibility his military
commanders might not follow him.
Trust me, it's an issue that weighs heavy on his mind and
the minds of the Iranian Puppet Masters, especially after the aircraft defections.
The problem is, the successful Rebel tactics may be forcing
Assad's hand.
For months, the Rebels could accomplish little more than
simple, hit and run events that gave them just the right amount of video to
make good You Tube clips.
That has completely changed and that change may end up
taking this crisis to a level not even Assad or Iran wants it to go.
You see, when a group becomes so well organized, disciplined
and equipped that they can stand and fight a conventional battle or even better
go on the offensive in a conventional fight, then defending force must take the
fight to the next level; a level without
fixed wing aircraft given the paranoia of defections.
If you look at the reports coming out of Syria on a
daily bases now, you see a dramatic change.
The number of reported destroyed Tanks in the past two weeks
is more than alarming to the Syrian Military Leaders.
When armor is vulnerable, infantry must secure it and
infantry in the open, on the move, is an easy target; thus the causality
numbers for the Syrian military are climbing dramatically.
Again, an issue the Syrian military leaders are losing sleep
over.... what sleep they have been able to get in the past eight months. Yes.. a very...very fatigued force!!!
Next we must consider a logistic complex that is bleeding
almost as fast as the Syrian military.
Technical equipment like tanks, helicopters and large
vehicles need maintenance and when do you think these Commander have time to
conduct this maintenance?
Ok, here is the
picture I'm trying to paint!
The Syrian military is physically exhausted and morale
is as low as it can possibly get.
On top of the exhaustion and morale issue, you can stack FEAR!!!!
Fear of failure.
Fear of punishment for act you have committed and acts you
may not commit; thus fearing both sides of the conflict.
simply put, fear for the future.
Now, put this on top of equipment that is most likely
bordering on failure.
What do you have?
I will tell you what you don't have.
You don't have a military that is capable of a conventional
war with another nation state such as Turkey ...
a NATO member to boot!!!!
Bottom line, if Assad ask his military leaders to launch a
conventional war, they must consider if they are even capable of doing so; and
at what cost to the nation?
I have a fear of how that scenario might turn out and I only
hope the Syrian military Commanders prevent my fear.
I can envision Syrian Military leaders in conflict with
their Iranian handlers.
