WHY ARE THE SYRIAN RESISTANCE FIGHTERS HOLDING GROUND?
The reports of Douma being partially held by the resistance
fighters, along with other "strongholds", needs to be studied
carefully.
Does Al Assad own the
military force to crush these resistance pockets?
Absolutely.... well.. it depends on how we define "
own".
As has been the case throughout history, a Leader's power is
based upon the loyalty of the people he or she leads!
A vast majority of Syrian's military is Sunni and this has
been Al Assad's problem from the beginning of events in Syria
Owning the equipment that can overwhelm a inferior enemy is
not in question.
Having the people assigned to those units who will carry out
such orders continues to be Al Assad's weak link.
From the very beginning of the uprising, he and his Brother
understood the importance of not forcing Sunni majority units to attack Sunni
majority towns.
His problem has become, a larger proportion of the Sunni
population inside the military is no longer willing to take orders.
In fact, the numbers of defections is growing at an alarming
level... alarming for Al Assad that is.
As I have stated before, the type of limited operations Al
Assad must execute, not utilizing fixed wing and ballistic weapons, has limited
the impact his forces can have on entrenched locations.
Remember the rule of combat... it takes a ratio of 4 to
1... four assault troops for ever defender, to win a fixed engagement.
This rule is changed if air power is incorporated, but Al Assad
can't take that step... at least not yet.
A few key things to watch for that may indicate he is
finally contemplating a true Civil War.... thus utilizing all assets at his
disposal. ( Some we don't even want to
think about.)
1. The world media, to include the " You Tube" reporters, giving the perception
the resistance is actually taking ground and holding it.
The Attached articles speak to that.
2. If the Syrian
military dissertation numbers continue to grow to the point that organic units turn
on Syria
3. China and Russia
Finally and probably, in my opinion the biggest indicator Al
Assad may not hold back, if Senior Syrian Commanders and supporting political
members jump ship.
At that point in time,we will have to wonder who would be commanding the Syrian special
units?
Look for the Iranian Quds, behind the scene control.
The outcry for a ' No Fly Zone' will take on a whole new meaning if Al Assad begins to employ all of his assets.
