THE CLASH FOR CONTROL!
For over three months now, I have tried to figure out who is going to win the bragging rights for the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring.
I still believe several groups with visions of what the future should look like are trying to lobby for control of the movement.
1. The Social Revolutionaries coloring the whole event as a battle of ' social injustices' and oppressive governments.
The 'Redistribution of Wealth' is the end-state based upon the final destruction of tyrannical governments developed and supported by 'Colonial Powers'.
2. the Iranian vision of a 'Persian Empire' based upon an 'Arab awakening'; yep they are the Chief culprits in tying to hijack the 'Arab Awaking' slogan.
Iran is trying to achieving new dominance in the Middle East at the same time they are trying to keep the first mentioned movement, Social Revolutionaries, from infecting Iran's population.
Iran is in a race against time and they know it.
3. The Turks and their drive to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
Watching the intellectuals from all the Universities recommend a 'Turkish style' answer to kicking out the old Monarchies, is exactly what Turkey is looking for.
A 'kinder, gentler, Muslim faith based government is the picture that is being painted.
All three movements have their problems at the moment.
The Social Revolutionaries are great at passive protesting, but writing a new government requires hard work and that means you can't sit around at the coffee shop all day playing on the internet!
Yes, they are going to have to grow up and face the real world and not the world their ideological Professors have painted for them. Hint.... .Egypt ... How is that new Constitution coming? Seems like I've heard the ' Change' speech before???
Iran; Well Iran is on the edge of pure panic.
Syria is a total nightmare to them and they know they have no real answer other than creating violence somewhere else.
A war with Israel is not the answer and would be the ultimate 'distraction', but that time may be coming.
Turkey seems to have things going their way and of the three movements, they seem to have the best chance of gaining outside support.
The US policy of ' lead from the rear' / hence our actions in Libya, has left the perfect void for Turkey and nobody seems to be that upset with the concept of Turkey taking a leadership role.
It sounds like things could be going Turkey's way, but for one potential disaster.
A sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shi with a mixture of Persian vs Arab flavor.
Don't forget the GCC is on the verge of building their own version of NATO.
For Turkey to step up as a future leader in the Middle East would provide them a great deal of accreditation, especially in the eyes of the EU, but with that accreditation comes the responsibility of being a 'leader'.
Suddenly believing they are ready to take center stage in the Middle East could be a classic example of,
" be careful of what you ask for".
To the Arab, seeing the Ottoman Empire reemerge could be a huge perception problem.
It is much easier to want to be a 'Leader' than to actually be one!
