ASSAD REELECTION...DOES HE SEE THE CHANGE?
I found this to be an
interesting article by a superior writer on the issues of the Middle East that
addresses an issue I’ve talked about for over a year now.
Again; back to the question of, “what price does Hezbollah
pay for entering the conflict in Syria”?
If you have followed my opinions on this topic, you know I’ve
predicted the transformation of Hezbollah and even the demise of what it initially
stood for.
As I have said in the past, an organization with a prolonged
operational engagement runs the inherent risk of, “you are no longer one of us….
You were not there”!
So, what could be pulling Hezbollah apart and what does it
mean to their future?
Does Assad, as the author states in this attached article,
risk Hezbollah getting too much credit for gaining ground in the conflict?
Great question, if you accept the premise that Assad has “gained
ground / momentum”
Side Note: All save that argument for the end of this
post.
Let’s look at what Hezbollah potentially going against them.
Popularity:
Do the people of Lebanon
believe Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria benefited Lebanon….. are the people of
Lebanon safer than before Hezbollah entered Syria?
No!
Trust:
Does Assad “trust” Hezbollah….. does Hezbollah “trust”
Assad?
Are they both just convenient partners both dancing to the
fiddle of the Persians?
Where is the trust now inside the Hezbollah?
What has changed?
Who has paid the price for battles in Syria and who has sat
back in Lebanon and sipped Tea while writing colorful speeches and making money
in the Black Market / Drug world?
What price has “fatigue” placed on the internal workings of
Hezbollah?
What new Alliances are now made and who dreams of being the
new “Boss”?
Support:
Do the Persians really care about Hezbollah’s popularity in
Lebanon or are they still what they have always been, a weapon in a pending war
with Israel?
If Assad sees Hezbollah as a threat to his status in Syria,
does he deal with his Persian masters to negate Hezbollah’s status or does he
limit the movement of logistics from Iran to Lebanon?
A lot of question here, but one fact remains; what is the future
of Hezbollah in Syria and what impact will that future have to the very future
of the organization?
Ok, back to the side note I mentioned earlier; the “progress”
Assad has made over the past few months.
Are the streets of Damascus safer now than last year?
Does Assad’s photo hang from the walls on any buildings in Aleppo,
what is left of Aleppo….. the industrial hub of what was Syria.
And that is my point; what is left of Syria?
What has Assad really regained “control” over?
Syria will never
function again as it did prior to this conflict.
Assad’s dream of surviving the storm and then getting back
to business as usual is gone!
Here is the issue he simply is incapable of understanding.
Not just Syria has changed!
The entire region has changed.
Alliances have changed, are changing and will change.
Two weeks ago, I wrote of the apparent fleeting support by
the Tsar and the Persians!
Who is Assad trying to convince as he approaches the
elections?
What was true three years ago is no longer so.
Does Assad understand this?
No.
Do the Persians and the Tsar?
Yes!
I’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying over and over
again.
When you get right down to it, not just the Middle East or
the region has changed or is changing… the whole world balance is changing.
The question becomes where does a small little slice like
Assad fit in?
Three years ago, he was the talk of the town…. Now… all of
Europe is under threat of “change” and Assad’s world is shoved to the rear.
Chemical weapons used again over the past few weeks and did
anyone even care?
What I find almost comical is the very idea that an election
in Syria is even worth talking about!
For an eye Doctor, you would think he would have better “vision”
than he does!
