ASSAD USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ANNOUNCED.. FINALLY!!!
Well, I was going to head back to the topic of Turkey ,
but the announcement on Assad's use of chemical weapons changed all of that!
Ok, first things first!
Why now?
That is the question everyone is going to ask, well, the
ones that care!
Why did the US
break this announcement now?
Now, some are going to say, " its a distraction for the
NSA scandal or the IRS scandal"!
We all recognize governments often use
"distractions" when they feel they are in turbulent waters with their
own citizenship, but I'm not convinced that is the issue this time around.
Let me put it this way; does anyone think this could have
anything to do with the pending attack on Aleppo
and the results that could have for the Sunni Rebels?
Is Assad gaining the upper hand in his civil war about him
or is the whole Syrian conflict about the region and the future of who runs it?
I know my opinion!
If you were a Sunni Rebel member and you were digging in to
fight in Aleppo , how much would your attitude
change if someone announced the US
had declared Assad had officially crossed the Red Line?
What level of "hope" might you gain back?
Ok, it's obvious this "announcement" is far from a
un-timed, uncoordinated scientifically backed "discovery"!
Lets drive past the issue of why the announcement was made
and get to what I consider the more important question.
What next?
Here is an important rule of governments making
international impacting "announcements", the other side gets a chance
to react!
Anticipating those possible reactions is part of the
detailed work of government planning.
If we assume the US deliberated in great detail over taking
this dramatic step, and it is a dramatic one, then what possible reactions did
it create Courses of Action / COA's / for?
We could play, "what if" for hours on this topic,
so let's stick to the "Who" and avoid the "What" for a day
or two.
Here is my list of "who" is going to have
something to say and then have something
to react with.
Assad:
Words.... and more words.. as he stands by for his Master's
to give him his next set of instructions.
The Persians:
Words... as they stand by and wait for "guidance"
from their "Big Brother"!!
Hezbollah:
Words... and the extreme worry they have been sold down the
river by the Persians.
The Tsar:
If we assume the US has talked to the Russian about
this announcement prior to making it, then we have to assume they ether agreed
or disagreed.
If they disagreed, what will be the reaction?
If they agreed, what will the Tsar's message to the Persians
be?
Bottom line; understanding this announcement is going to
have implications for the battle of Aleppo
is a given.
The saga of Syria
and in reality the Sunni / Shia Civil War just took a turn.
What direction and with what implications, we will have to
see.
A blinding flash of the obvious just took place, but then
again, timing is always the key in international politics.
You can bet on one thing.
Mr Egodan is more than happy to see this dramatic event take
place just a day or two before he may have to drop the hammer on his own
people.
Everyone loves a distraction at the right point in time!!!
