EGYPT AND ISRAEL:

 BOTH HAVE HUGE PROBLEMS COMING UP.

Two articles that both talk to two very important issues.

The first one is very well written, but misses a key point / question I think needs to be asked.

It is not unusual a military that is the last agency standing after a complete collapse of government does a poor job of playing Legislative, Judicial leader?

Remember, the Egyptian Military is not known for being a compassionate organization, even before the revolution.

A military that is fatigued and lacking sound civilian leadership is not going to be in a position of serving the public in a positive way.

The guidance for day to day actions are probably less than detailed.

The realization that they are the last stand between an Egypt and total social disorder could account for the overreaction to even the most simplistic of events.

A nation of laws and civil order, as oppressive as they were, is a drastic change to where they stand today.

The social dreamers, who somehow thought they were going to tear down the government of Egypt and simply walk into a utopia of freedoms and tranquility, are getting a hard lesson in reality.

I have no doubt the author of this article is correct in the assumption many of those arrested are not guilty of anything other than being near a very paranoid military.

Right now in Egypt, if you look like a Duck and walk like a Duck and Sound like a Duck, the military is going to think you are a Duck!

Ok, enough of sticking up for the last truly functional structure of the Egyptian Government.

I do have one observation I think the author of this story has missed.

It seems the collection of ‘arrested / detained’ individuals is concentrated with left leaning non traditional Muslim groups.

Of all the people who have been reportedly rounded up in the past three months, I wonder how many are members of the Muslim Brotherhood?

In the minds of the military leadership, it could very well be they see the destruction of Egypt’s government based on a left leaning, academic movement.

Remember how many Times I have talked about the power of perception?

If the ‘perception’ of the Egyptian military is such, then it would make sense this is the category of people they would target.

Those they feel are responsible for the destruction, and destruction is what key military leaders believe has happened,  must not be allowed to make matters worse.

Does this answer the question as to why the MB on  is not being targeted?

Well, it could be they are not making  the ‘noise’ the young modern Egyptians are and as such, they are not on the ‘radar’.

It could also be  the MB influence inside the Egyptian Military has dramatically changed.

It is common knowledge the MB was a primary target of the military during the Mubarak years.

But, as  Egypt began to fall into the social abyss, desperate leaders may have joined forces to save Egypt from a fate riviling ‘ Mad Max’.

“ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”.

Sound far fetched, not count it out.

The one thing the old Egyptian Military and the MB have in common and always have had in common is being ruthless and being conservative.

 Egypt is in a terrible mess and the elections are not going to solve their problems.

They could make them worse.

The MB and the Military know it and they both may do whatever it takes to save what is left of Egypt.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/2011519172611166398.html

The second story gives us yet another hint at just how bad the relationship between the US and Israel has become.

Netanyahu knows Israel’s back is now against the wall perhaps like never before.

The wars in the past, had a common denominator, the backing of the US.

Most of us do not believe the US would stand by and watch the destruction of Israel, but the people of Israel may not feel the same way after this week.

Again, the issue of ‘perception’ comes into play.

What is even more important is how Iran perceived the President’s speech!

His comments about Iran did not go unnoticed, but the true discovery for Iran may be in the perception of a change in US support for Israel.

Iran will not believe the US has abandoned Israel, in fact, most official comments from Iran spoke to the issue of the President still playing to the goals of Israel.

Yet, one can not overlook the theory Iran may have a greater perception of the US simply standing on the sidelines as the Middle East unravels.

Comments that painted a picture of the US taking a ‘ it’s up to the people’ attitude, will be studied by Iran in great detail.

It is very clear to Iran, internally, the US is not going to intervene, at this time, with events in Syria.

Iran knows the talk of sanctions is as it always has been, a Paper Tiger.

For Iran to even contemplate the US will take a ‘ sideline’ stances in the Middle East, could prove to be disastrous.

Enter the question of Saudi.

Has the President’s policy shift lead to a potential confrontation between Iran and the GCC,  a Saudi run concept?

I stated two days ago,  Saudi and the GCC have something in common with Israel and they have seen it coming for several months now.

The US is perceived as pulling away from all of them!

True?

Who knows and who cares!!

Remember; “Perceptions”.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/20/us-obama-mideast-netanyahu-idUSTRE74I7L720110520