IRAN'S NUCLEAR "DEAL" IS STILL ALIVE

So the EU states the Iranian nuclear "deal" is still alive? why of course it is. After all, what has Iran done to jeopardize the trust of the EU? Let's see. They have attacked six tankers in the past two months. their proxy fighters have launched countless missile attacks into Saudi Arabia. They attempted to highjack a British tanker. They shot down a US drone. They have threatened all shipping in the straits. They have demanded the EU take a knee and pacify Tehran's demands for economic aid. It's easy to see, the Mullahs have done nothing, "significant" to upset the agreement. with today's announcement from Ms. Mogherini, I am confident the threats and actions from Tehran will halt immediately. Mogherini. that must be French for Chamberlian. 

Now what:

Now that the EU has once again, done what they do best, take a knee, the question becomes, now what? Let me give you just a few clues. 1. The Mullahs will now up their demands. Not only will they want their oil to flow wherever they want it to, but they will also demand the EU pressure the US into discontinuing the sanctions. Now, they know full well the US will not listen to the EU, at least not as long as Trump is in the White House, well........at least I think the US won't. Rumors continue to flow of the US looking for an "offramp" from the Iranian issue. If that is true, and I am beginning to fear that it is, the old men in Tehran will turn up the heat even more. How ironic given that just a little over a week ago, the UK slapped the Mullah's upside the head of the attempted highjacking of the UK tanker. I could go on and on about the, " now whats", but let me take you back to a stark reality that somehow everyone seems to just wish away. 

The last vote:

Who gets the last and most important vote on the Iranian "deal"? Yep.....Israel. Does Israel need the EU's permission or support to act against the Iranian nuclear program? No. Does Isreal need the support of the US to conduct military operations against Iran? In a perfect scenario, yes, but with the recent backing down of Team Trump on the pending actions against Iran as well as the rumors of the US now looking for an "offramp", Israel may be coming back to a sobering reality, a reality they lived with for eight years under Obama. In the end, Israel may stand alone to prevent the Mullahs from obtaining nuclear weapons. If Team Trump is now looking to kick this issue past the next election cycle in the US, well, that gives the Mullah's breathing room. Even better for the Mullahs, if Trump were to lose, in the minds of the old men in Tehran, they might just be in the clear. They might think that, but their military commanders know better. 

How bad can it get:

Teletubbies of the EU will not prevent Israel from defending itself. Words spoken over a fancy conference table will not prevent the Mullahs from continuing their plan. If times change and Israel must act unilaterally, the repercussions will rest squarely on the shoulders of the EU and the US political circus. Netanyahu stated Europe is repeating the same mistakes of the 1930s. I am confident very few people understand the validity of his statement.  

Is Israel prepared to go to war to prevent nuclear weapons in the hands of the Mullahs? yes. Could that include a preemptive strike, a strike the EU and the US Democratic party would blame on Israel? yes. Does anyone know this? yes. The US, Russia and several others believe this reality. Are they in a position to stop such an event? Yes. How? Can a regime change take place in Iran without the US being involved? yes, just look to Moscow for the clue. Would Israel warn the US and Russia of a pending first strike? Perhaps the US, but the warning to the Russians would be just prior to offensive operations getting underway. Are the Israelis prepared for the response the Mullahs might authorize? Yes, at least as best as they can be. How can Israel mitigate that response? Here is the ugly part. If the days comes this horrific battle unfolds, look for the IDF to strike in an overwhelming event. What options would be left off the table for Israel? none, and I think you understand what I am implying here. 

Reality:

The EU can stick its head in the sand and repeat the nightmare of WWII. The US can allow it's cyclic political circus to make poor decisions. None of this will matter the moment Israel's intelligence agencies truly believe the Mullahs are about to have a nuclear capability. Look. let me make this as clear as I can. With the US's total support, the Iranian capabilities can be dramatically reduced in a very short period of time. does that mean yet another conflict in the Middle East? Does it mean it could happen before the next election cycle? That is up to the Mullahs. But......if.......if it happens and the military power of the US is not combined to quickly reduce Iran's military to the point the damage to the region and Israel is kept at acceptable levels, whatever that might be, and things start to go bad for Israel, then no one and I mean no one should be shocked at what takes place then. Yes, these are hard times. Yes, the American people have a war aversion. Yes, the EU believes the Mullahs are controllable. Finally; yes, the Israelis will do whatever needed to stop what it seems everyone else is just trying to wish away. The US wants an "offramp? Okay. I say that ramp only exist in one location, Moscow. Regime change doesn't have to be a US operation, but the price for convincing the Russians to make the event a reality is most likely high, very high. Perhaps a satellite image of the IAF uploading a "special" payload would convince someone the time to take an easier route is growing short.