HMS MONTROS AND THE GAME OF BRINKSMANSHIP 

   A little of two weeks ago, the US lost an important game of "Brinksmanship" with the old men in Tehran. Today, the UK decided to play this game with the old men and Tehran lost....for now. Did the events that took place with the US embolden the leadership in Tehran? Yes. Is the leadership in Tehran desperate enough to try the game of brinksmanship again? I think they answer that question today. So, what happened? What changed that made this latest round of a highly dangerous game take place? 

Saving Face:

   The events between the US and Tehran a few weeks ago were disastrous for the US's perception management goals for the Middle East. Did President Trump's decision to call off the strikes avoid a much larger event? Yes, and so, identifying that episode as disastrous is a very subjective topic. The old men in Tehran created an environment that allowed them to save face, at least temporarily. The US accepted the concept of, " we can wait....for now". When the dust settled, the old men in Tehran had their temporary victory, a victory everyone of their military commanders knew full well would be short-lived.   

   As I and others predicted, it didn't take long for the next event to take place. The seizure of the tanker moving Iranian oil to Syria set in motion what I would hope would be a deliberate plan on the US's part. Push the old men in Tehran. Take them off their gloating soapbox and hand them an event, without gunfire, that would force them to either take action or take a loss on round two of brinksmanship. Secondly, force them to consider taking action against someone other than the US, thus allowing the US to take the high ground. Well, it worked, but don't start waving the checkered flag too soon. When the HMS Montros turned her guns, automatic guns with computerized, target recognition, on the five smaller Iranian attack boats, the British Navy was not bluffing. A decision was made and that decision was made either in Tehran on by an Iranian commander. The five small craft turned away. Short answer....... SMACK! that was the sound of the UK Royal Navy slapping the old men in Tehran across the face. Great, right? That's the way to do it, right? 

What Alternatives:

   Before the US and the UK take a victory lap, let me remind you, as the IC is reminding the White House, just how desperate the government in Tehran truly is. A little two weeks ago, Tehran seemed to be ready for a dramatic event with the US. The US became aware of this and decided to disengage. It was right then and there, the plan that we witnessed take place today most likely began its execution. This time, the tables were turned and the old men in Tehran backed down. What alternative did they have? with the guns and other weapons of the Montros pointing them in the face, what alternative did they have? Here is the hint and it's a hint you need to pay close attention to. right after the US was made to look as if they had backed down, an alternative course of action was put into play. Think about it. Does anyone think for a second the same thing is not taking place in Tehran as I write this hastily thought out blog post?  Yes, round two, actually round four if you figure in the other six tankers that were attacked, is over. Here is what you can absolutely count on. There is going to be around three and perhaps several more. A little perception loss in DC is one thing, a perception loss in Tehran, stacked on top of everything else that is going wrong in the country, well, that's a different story.  Here is my final comment. The next event, whatever it may be, will not be too far in the future. I may have to rush this blog post just to beat what happens!