IRAN….SYRIA…. IDLIB …..THE STRAITS AND THE “WHAT IF” GAME.

            Alright. I’ve not done this in a while, but it’s time to play my favorite game. If you have followed me in the past, you know exactly what that means. Yep. It’s time for the “What If Game”! Today’s topic of choice is the pending events in the Idlib area of Syria and the Straits of Hormuz. Are the two areas related? Yes, by one issue, the desperation of Iran. Rouhani was served up yesterday by the Iranian Parliament as they try desperately to pin their economic crisis on someone other than the old men in Tehran. In Syria, it seems the Russians are doing exactly what I’ve said they would do from the day they took their picture with the Iranians….. pimp the Iranians for the sake of Moscow’s goals. The future of Syria, from Moscow’s perspective, is going to swing with the issue of Idlib. As for the Kurds and the Turks, well, that’s for them to figure out afterwards. Iran is in a desperate position and their actions in the past two months have shown just how desperate. Now, it appears the future of their involvement in Syria is being manipulated, in the open, by Moscow, something the Mullahs have feared for the past several years. Yes, the Iranians signed an agreement with Syria this week. Yes, that paper will be used by Moscow as cover for not openly pushing Iran out of Syria, but the Iranians didn’t take that step for Moscow’s sake. They don’t give a flying carpet about Moscow. Right now, it’s all about Iran and the vision the Mullahs have had for decades going up in smoke. So, let’s get down to it. Let’s play the “What if Game”. It’s a game the folks in the IC love to play and if you’re lucky, when you retire you can write a book or two.

What if?

            What if the new, Syrian version of Hezbollah, the NDF and the other Shia militias are not allowed to have a slice of the pie after the Idlib event is over? What if they are told to head back to Iraq or somewhere else? What if Iran’s Syrian Hezbollah is simply told, “Get out”? Who is the future Police Force for the area? Don’t be too surprised if it’s the Russians. If not Russian Military Police in total, then Russian Leadership. Without that handshake with the Turks, I’m not sure they will go along with any other part of the plan. Score at that point…Turkey and Moscow … 1… Assad and Iran 0.  You can raddle off names of groups and names of leaders of these groups. You can site what group is from where and who they used to be. You can try to impress people by doing these things, but in the end, it’s all smoke and mirrors. What is important is the reality of who is really calling the shots here, and it’s not Tehran.

What if?

            What if the US and Russia don’t come to some agreement on the status of Northern Syria? Does the input of Tehran and Ankara really matter? No. Can they make whatever the Russian and the US come up with difficult to execute? Yes, but the “what if” question is about the US and Russia, so let’s focus on that for a minute. Does the Idlib area matter to the US? Does it matter to the Russians? To the Russians it’s a signal the task is almost complete. The process of saving Assad, not for Assad’s sake, but for countering the West in Eastern Europe, is a goal that must be reached. The Keeper of the Gate for all other issues in the Middle East becomes Moscow. How does the US and its Allies prevent Iran from interfering in the region? By getting the Russians to keep them in check. Here’s the problem. That’s the Moscow version of how this should all go down. Here is the problem with that vision. Team Trump and Israel may not go along with that vision. Moscow believes  Idlib may be the light at the end of the tunnel, but the ability to blow that tunnel is also in the hands of those Moscow only thinks they can control. Yep. Iran and Turkey. If Moscow thinks they can manipulate the relationship between Tehran and Ankara, and they don’t, then reality will be a hard pill to swallow.   You see, Idlib may be close to a final curtain call for the Civil War in Syria, but it’s a far more complex event than previous actions in that war. The players all have different agendas and handshakes are not going to solve any of them. If the US and Russians don’t come to an understanding on Idlib, then the proxy fight may be worse than any that have been witnessed. In the past few days, the stories of US and Allies ships moving into the area along with an increased Russian naval footprint are signs the “agreement” process is not going well. Russia’s MOD statement about the US and Allies preparing to attack Syria based upon a false chemical event was a carefully designed event. If that wasn’t enough, the rumors of Hezbollah’s reluctance to get involved in the pending Idlib fight is even more puzzling. Okay. Next “What if”.

What If?

            What if Hezbollah has a new Daddy? Have they seen the handwriting on the wall with the Mullahs and the Iranian economy? Do they think the small amount of funds from the EU will keep Iran afloat? Time and time again, I’ve talked about the actions of General Soleimani. His official trips to Moscow. How many times has he sat down with the Russians? Has every one of these meetings been approved by Tehran? Did the Russians ever ask to sit with him without his Boss knowing? Are the rumors of Hezbollah leaving Syria just part of a well-planned, disinformation event? Is it all designed to cast doubt in the minds of the Mullahs in Tehran? Or……… Does the Arab blood leadership of Hezbollah see the sinking Persian ship and decide to find a new partner?  Is Hezbollah going to have a role in the battle of Idlib or have they found out from their new Masters there isn’t going to be a decisive battle, at least not one that requires Hezbollah support? Would Moscow love to be the new secret controllers of Hezbollah and the Qud? You bet they would. Let the Mullahs be strung up from the construction cranes in Tehran and then simply control the future of the proxy fighters. Let Iran turn into Iraq as long as the flow of oil and gas is controlled by Moscow. If there is not a fight in Idlib, and there may not be, then the future of the Iranian supported Shia Militias is completely up in the air. They will need someone to champion them, someone to pay their bills. Iran’s being pushed out of Syria and its proxy groups know it. So, what does Iran do? Yep. Next, “What if”?

The Straits:

What If?

            What if it all goes bad for the Mullahs, and by the way, it is. What if, despite all their efforts, the future of Syria is not determined by Tehran, but by a deal cut between DC and Moscow? The Iranian economy is in shambles and growing worse by the day. Those that are ordered to beat back the protestors have families that can’t buy food. How’s that going to work for the Mullahs? I’m going to keep making this statement until history proves me wrong, or I get to say, “ I told you so”, but Tehran is not going to go quietly into the night. If they lose control over Syria, then someone is going to pay the price somewhere else. If they are losing control of Hezbollah, then their options are even more limited. Without Hezbollah, the ability to draw Israel into a limited conflict is nearly impossible. Direct actions by Iran would result in direct actions against Iran and even the Mullahs are not ready for that suicidal walk. Without the proxy militias support, you have to pay them to keep them, even the Iranian influence in Iraq is almost completely destroyed. A loss of Syria and Iraq would mean the loss of Lebanon and that’s about as bad as it can get for the old men in Tehran, well, except for the protestors showing up with construction cranes! At this point, the options will be extremely limited, but one school of thought comes to mind. If you cannot win, then take as many of them with you as you can. The Straits. What single event could impact the rest of the world, at least temporarily, more than the Straits? If you doubt this theory, why do you think the Iranians use this topic repeatedly to threaten the world? What impact would a 2018 shooting war in the Straits have on the world oil markets? What country would not want to see this event over as quickly as possible? Did you answer Russia? If so, good for you. 120 dollars per barrel, that’s music to the ears of Moscow, not to mention the ability to sell military hardware after the war is over. Pushing the Iranians over the cliff and letting the world blame the US is a great concept and one that is not lost to the logic of Mr. Putin. The US is so dysfunctional over Donald Trump, CNN and MSNBC would probably be cheering for the Iranian Navy as they screamed how the whole conflict was Trump’s fault. Can Iran be manipulated into launching an event such as this? Putin is the Puppet Master and never forget that reality. So, how would Russia insure this event doesn’t get completely out of control? By having a substitute government in the waiting, one that has Thug support such as Hezbollah and the Qud Force, that’s how. The youth of Iran would only have to hear that an interim, secular government is being installed as the fighting stopped and the population would be under control. Does all of this seem unreasonable? To many of you, it might. To me, it’s how the world really works. Idlib is not going to go the way Iran wants it and that will lead to Iran being more desperate than ever. A desperate government is a government that can be manipulated and who is the Puppet Master?