RUMORS OF US ACTIONS AGAINST SYRIA / RUSSIA.

In the past two days. Two stories caught my attention. 

One: the US is considering military action, again, in Syria and the conflict in DC on who supports the idea and who does not.

Two: The US is considering retaliating against Russian cyber hacks with its own cyber-attack.

As dramatic as these two stories should have been, it only took a day for the Trump / Hillary story to overtake the media in the US. I am somewhat surprised it took that long.

It’s not often that I take a positive position with the current US administration, but if passive liberalism won the day with these two ideas, then I have to admit the right decisions were made, at least for now.

Just how reckless would either of these actions have been? It’s hard to even measure.

Was the Tsar anticipating ether of these actions? Yes.

Did he have a counter-move prepared? Absolutely, that is how he operates.

If the US would have stumbled into ether of these actions, the impact would have been at a level the US would not have been ready to deal with. You, see, as I have said in the past, the US is decent at rationalizing the first proactive move, but the follow on requirements are almost always lacking in US policy. It’s is truly one of the weakest points of US strategic policy development.

Could a cascading series of results have been the outcome? Yes.

Could they have forced the US and its allies into events they had not anticipated and therefore not have been prepared for? That answer is the more frightening than any one that may have been given.

 The intent behind telegraphing one’s actions is perceived very differently in the rest of the world than it is in the West / US. Very few nations, especially the Russians, truly believes the US media is not fully in the camp of the Obama administration. Given that the Russians believe that, hearing of such pending actions could only be perceived as a “warning” to the Tsar. Actually, it doesn’t take a lot to convince me that may have been the case and that make the message even more dangerous.

When word of these two options hit Moscow, I have to imagine there were smiles inside the Tsar’s office.

What actions were, is he, prepared to take if either of these two events were to take place.  Those options were reviewed as soon as these two stories hit Moscow.

Here is the next dangerous fact of this story. I’m betting the Tsar and his team are convinced those actions may still take place! That’s the problem with using the media for sending messages. Walking back the threat to someone like the Tsar is never a good option.

If the US has decided not to take action in Syria and not to take cyber actions against Russia, then the results will be in the negative ether way. Yep. This is a lose, lose, but one version of this loss is far less dangerous than the other. I say that, but in the long run, even the passive loss will run the threat of further decay.

Why did these two stories fall off the radar so quickly? Two answers.

One: It hasn’t outside the US. It has not gone away in Syria, Russia, Iran or with the GCC.

Two: It could be not just that Trump / Clinton is the focus of the media in the US, but perhaps leadership realized these two stories need to end quickly. “LOOK…. A SQUIRREL”!!! Now, if the US was really trying to send a message to Moscow, I’m on and off on that concept, then the sudden de-escalation could have yet another unforeseen consequence. The factions fighting in DC on how to move the US’s involvement forward are now probably more at odds than ever before. One thing is for sure. It is not the fist time the world has witnessed the US’s “GO…DON”T GO…. WE REALLY MEAN IT THIS TIME… DON’T CROSS THE LINE”, stage act. Can Moscow really believe this level of incompetence? Does someone as paranoid as the Tsar truly believe DC is that incompetent? Well, a few years ago, the Tsar may have had a hard time believing it, but now, even he may have to watch DC and scratch his head!

Bets. Place your bet. If you hear of a “hack” on Russian systems and you see the US jump up and say they were not responsible, you may want to believe it. Could the Tsar mastermind such an event just to take his plan to the next step? It won’t surprise me at all. 

As for US military actions on Syrian sites, that blunder would even surprise me and I have less confidence in the actions of DC than the Tsar does.   If the Tsar has mapped that event out, even I would be surprised. I say that then I look at the events that surround the UN aid convoy attack in Syria. All things are posable in this mismatched battle of ideas.

Two dangerous stories this week and most in the US may think they are both over.

My hunch is, they are only over if the Tsar wants them to be over.

What’s next? The midnight oil is still burning in Moscow!