SAUDI AND IRAN. BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

            The FLASH message to Central Command, CENTCOM, back in the US was sent three minutes after the first confirmed hit on the Iranian Frigate, Jamaran. As the description of the event was being briefed to the Watch Commander in the Joint Operations Center, two additional reports came in. Saudi Naval forces were attacking an Iranian escort movement in the Gulf of Aden. As the Watch Commander was beginning his notification procedures, two additional reports indicated Iran had fired upon the Saudi Frigate, Al Madinah. Initial reports indicated the Jamaran and two other unnamed Iranian vessels were heavily damaged, with the Jamaran listing badly. Reports stated, the Al Madinah had been struck twice and was dead in the water.

            30 minutes into this event, as the President of the United States was being briefed, a report indicated the Iranian Fast Attack Craft, Kalat, accompanied by multiple Houdong class Missile Craft boats were attacking three Saudi flagged tankers near Kumzar in the Strait of Hormuz. The US President was informed intelligence indicated the Iranian Navy was dispersing into their war footing and the likelihood was extremely high the attacks in the Straits would increase dramatically in the next few hours.

Now, I could go on and on about this scenario and in another format,  I have😉, but my point today is this. In a region of the world where highly accurate weapons are sold to highly volatile nations, on all sides, the odds of such an event taking place are way better than 50,50 on a good day. So, what would make this event, or one close to it, take place? 

Pushing into a corner:

            For over two weeks now, all the talk has been about the murder, of a wonderful Journalist, spy, traitor, perspective, you pick. It’s been about putting pressure on the future King of Saudi. It’s about the Sultan leveraging the event to meet his own goals. It’s been about pushing the guy, some in the West didn’t want to rule Saudi in the first place, out of power. It’s been about the arrogance of power and almost a Monkey See….Monkey Do Mentality. I mean, let’s face it. The norm out in the world right now is whack the guy or group that is making trouble. By the way, anyone hear out of the President of INTERPOL in the past two weeks? Ya….get my point?

The Future King:

            Mohammad Bin Salman / MBS/ is the future King of Saudi and most would agree he is nearly running the country now. Everyone also knows the power struggle that has been going on inside the country since the day MBS jumped to the front of the line. Is he paranoid? Would you be? Does anyone remember the Assassination attempt…I mean… “Drone Incident”? Should the guy be paranoid? Look. The point is simple, every finger out there is pointing at MBS, but what does that get you? What action does anyone want taken? Do you want INTERPOL to investigate? Well, they’re a little tied up right now trying to find out what China did with their Boss!

Iran:

 Iran. A nation run by a bunch of old, fanatical madmen? Yes. A nation that is prisoner to the powers of a few? Yes. A nation the US is currently pounding away at to get those old fanatics out of power? Yes. Does the expression, “Be careful what you ask for” apply here? Absolutely! Just how desperate or these old madmen and what are they willing to do in order to stay in power? Here’s a better way to ask the question. What is it that both Iran and Saudi are looking for? Did you answer, “A Distraction”? If you did, you get an A.

The Danger of pushing too far:

            Is it dangerous to push MBS into a corner? Yes. Is it dangerous to push the Mullahs into a corner? Yes. Do the two nations hate each other? Yes. Do they both own weapons programs designed not to miss? Yes. You can reverse the roles in my scenario and still end up with the same results. Western thinkers always anticipate they can play the same games, force the same issues and take the same approaches to the Middle East as they have done in Europe for years. Somehow, even though they right book after book about the topic, they simply don’t understand the “Art” of the region. Push MBS too far and see what takes place next. Push the Mullahs to the edge and hold your breath. Now, I’m not here comparing MBS to the fanatics in Tehran, but desperate leaders will always choose the path of resistance and they usually do so without truly understanding where that path might lead. For now, let’s hope the US media just sticks with the same old line of this being Trump’s fault given his so-called relationship with MBS. It’s better to have the media attack Trump, as usual, than it is to have the US overreact to the death of this poor, wonderful, inspiring Journalist. By the way. Someone needs to let the Sultan know just because this event took place inside Turkey, a nation where people, especially journalist, disappear all the time, that doesn’t equate into him declaring himself the leader of the Muslim world. You can bet, his actions are not going over well in Saudi. Dangerous times out there my friends.