RUSSIA’S “VICTORY” WHAT DOES IT
MEAN? DAZED AND CONFUSED!
It’s been a little over 48 hrs. since I first commented on
the Tsar’s announcement of “Mission Accomplished”…..wait… that was someone
else’s line wasn’t itJ
I’ve waited two days to follow up on this story because I
wanted to see just what reactions would come from the players in the
region.
So, let me take a stab at this issue and maybe we might see
where this is all going; don’t get your hopes up!
I’m convinced one of the major reasons we have not witnessed
a great deal reaction from players such as the GCC is because they were
completely caught off guard by this event. Although, it could be, could, the
behind the scene communications had this plan spelled out and part of the deal
was to not have a victory lap taken by the anti Assad supporters. Is the Tsar capable of doing such a behind
the back move on the Persians? Silly question. Are the GCC members / Saudi / willing
to cut any deal possible to get the Russians out of Syria or at least get them
to stop pounding the Rebel groups the GCC supports? Again…..silly question. If
we don’t see any semblance of a “victory lap” taken by the anti Assad camp
within another 48hrs, I will place a great deal more stock in the “behind the
scene / back / talks”.
Let me travel on from the mystery of why so little has been
said. Let us take a look at what does this pull out really mean?
First and foremost, if anyone has paid attention, they would
realize the Russian anti air systems are not part of the “deal”. Yes the rumor is the 400s are going to be
taken down, but the other systems, ones the IDF can deal with by the way, are
staying, at least for now. Can the Turks
fly into Syrian airspace to raid the Kurds? Well, revenge is a meal best served
cold, especially by the Tsar….perhaps even a parting shot… no pun intended!
So, to the anti Assad forces, it means, if there was no “deal”
cut, a final push to remove Assad can now, once again, be contemplated. Did the Tsar grow tired of Assad’s entrenched
attitude on the topic of negotiating a compromises? That is one of the mainstream
lines of thought and I wouldn’t be opposed to that theory, although the
holistic review of the Russian game is far more complex than just Assad’s
attitude.
Can the Anti Assad team led by the GCC and the Turks, now
start the process to take Assad out? We should be able to see signs of this
operation within the next few weeks, if it’s actually going to happen. Even if this does begin to happen, I will be
more than curious to see just how they would collectively pull this off? Who
runs the country if Assad is overtaken tomorrow? Remember the scene from Laurence
of Araba when all the tribal fighters finally reach Damascus? That is my vision
of a 2016 fallen Damascus!
If the anti Assad faction is really preparing to make a
renewed push on Assad and the Russians have made a “deal” to stand by as this
happens, then what does the new Syrian government look like? Oh ya… all the rumors of the partitioning of
Syria; just another stupid Western concept probably concocted at a Kerry cocktail party! What a disaster that would be and in the end,
the Kurds would get sold out …….just like at the end of Desert Storm.
Now, that we have kicked around the concept of what the anti
Assad team may be up to or what options they might have, let’s take a look at
an even more interesting issue!
What is Assad’s team up to?
First off, Assad’s government stated, on the same day as the
Tsar’s announcement, an announcement that looks as if caught the US
Administration off guard, but then again….is anyone really surprised by that
fact…. That they had been part of the withdrawal planning process with the
Russians. Really? What else would anyone expect them to say?
Here is another puzzling issue that if true, tells me the
Iranians were in on this “deal”.
Yesterday, I read a story, linked attached, reported by NOW
that Hezbollah fighters were pulling out of Syria at the same moment the
Russians were leaving! Think about that
for a minute. If the Russians blindsided
the Persians by putting together a pull out deal with the GCC/ Saudi’s / why in
the world would Hezbollah be in a position to leave the Syrian battlefield so
quickly?
If a “deal” has been agreed to and part of that deal was for
Hezbollah to abandon Assad, something the families in Lebanon would love to
hear, then Iran would have to be part of the “deal” for Hezbollah works for the
Persians! Now, if a rumor had been out
there the Russians were going to leave, something you could tell just by
watching the airbases they were working out of, then perhaps some of the local
Hezbollah Commanders, Commanders under great pressure from their supporting
members back in Lebanon, decided it was time to cut bait? The bottom line is
this; if Hezbollah is really pulling out of Syria, then ether Iran has lost
control of them, or the Iranian Guard “advisors” will be right behind them as
they head for the exit!
If the decision has been made to write Assad off and the
Russians and the Iranians have both signed on to the deal, then Assad is
doomed! Four years ago, I said Assad only last as long as Moscow wants him
to.
Now, let me just say, I’m not confident all this
coordination has taken place. My hunch is the Russians could care less what the
Persians think of the Russians leaving Syria. I also think Hezbollah would be
insane to go against the will of the Persians.
I still think the Russian move caught the whole region off guard and it’s
simply too soon to see what the consequences are going to be. By the way, would Saudi hammer Lebanon
fiscally and politically like they have in the past month if they thought Hezbollah
was leaving the battlefields in Syria?
48hrs into this brand new scenario for Syria and there can be
only two groups of people.
Those who are confused and those who have been in a possible
deal. I don’t buy the deal theory, but I had to play it out to see if it held
water.
As for the West / US / and this change in events……..well… it
is possible to be more than confused…. You can actually have….Dazed and Confused!
