QUSAYR.. IRAQ AND LEBANON
Ok, let's go back to the concept of each side in the Syrian
conflict attempting to open "Second Fronts" on the opponent.
As we have talked about before, it's obvious the injection
of Hezbollah has put new life into the Assad camp.
It is also more than obvious the Persians have decided,
after being given the go ahead by the Tsar, up the support tempo to Assad.
We have also gone over the concept of how the Sunni have
made the conscious decision to put pressure on the Hezbollah "home front"
in Lebanon; thus... a Second Front concept.
It also has become abundantly clear the Sunni game plan for Iraq has been
activated knowing full well the aggravation and distraction this will create
for the Persians and the Iraqi support to Assad.
Yep; a Third front concept is underway!!!
So, with the score two to one in favor of the Sunni team,
the issue of Qusayr comes to life.
What better way to pull the Sunni forces out of the city
limits of Damascus
then to attack to the rear!!!!
Yes, some of the issue of Qusayr is the issue of cutting off
supply lines from Lebanon ,
but Qusary has absolutely nothing to do with support flowing from Turkey and
everyone knows it.
Yes, Homs
becomes and issue now, but the concept of the Persian lead forces.. Yes I said
Persian lead forces.. taking Homs
is a bridge too far even for Hezbollah and the Iranian militia support teams,
at least right now.
Now, if we are going to get into the Second Front.... Third
Front concept discussion, then why not look at what is taking place in the
Golan?
Is Assad or his Persian Bosses trying to entice Israel
into a conflict in the Golan?
I don't think so.
It's the threat and intermittent aggravation from that area
that the Persians and Assad hope will keep Israel occupied.
A poor plan I might add.
And finally, lets relook at what is taking place in Lebanon
in the past few days and what may be changing.
It's one thing to think you can distract your enemy with
attacks to their base, but without carefully thought out considerations for
events ether side may not be able to control, a Second Front "plan"
may just turn into a full blown crisis.
Ok, here is the problem with the whole region at this moment
in time and it's getting more dangerous
by the hour.
When major events are planned by minor, individual thinkers,
insert
Clannish mentality here, even the "Big" players may not be
able to control what happens.
There is a mad rush to a proposed "peace conference"
right now and we have to wonder what has put the panic into the "big
players"?
Perhaps they know things are about to spin out of control
and they all sound like Chicken Little. AGAIN!!
