THE NEXT OPERATION INSIDE GAZA:

            Should I be addressing the findings of the Mueller report this morning? Should I be talking about the political circus that has gripped the US for over two years? Well, maybe, but if you have followed my post over the years, you know I spend little time on politics and the games that are played inside the US. Does it upset me? Yes. Do I focus on it? I try not to and, in that statement,, let me move on to something I think is important today, perhaps far more critical than many waking up in the US this morning realize.

Short Range, Medium Range, Long Range.

            When you live in a nation the size of Israel, what is the definition of “range”? From where those that wish to spread violence stand, any size rocket can have the results they crave. You can shoot a rifle and gain the world’s attention. For the people who live in Gaza, the ones that have nothing to do with rockets and firebomb balloons, every weapon in the IDF’s arsenal can inflict pain and tragedy. Take a small area that is full of people who are in a struggle just to live day to day, on both sides of this conflict, and insert those who only wish to propagate violence for the purpose of prestige or to fulfil the task of others and you have a recipe for what is about to happen yet again. Now, let me be very clear who I am talking about here. Those people who have inserted themselves inside of Gaza who have one purpose…..violence, those are the ones that have lit the fuse on the next major conflict inside of Gaza. Not the people in Gaza trying to find some level of medical help today. Not the people in Gaza who are trying to find a way to convince their children they can go to school today. Not the people in Gaza who have now heard the news stories or even witnessed the mobilization of IDF units on a scale larger than they have witnessed in the past. The people of Gaza who have no dreams of violence are now once again preparing for the worst. They are finding ways to gather their families and loved ones in a safe place in a city so small, hiding from the pending violence is impossible. These are the people who are falling to their knees and asking the Lord, “why”? These are people who share a commonality with the people in Israel. Fear. Fear of what is taking place and a fear of what may come once again. Are they correct? Is this time going to be different? Will the IDF strike empty buildings and then stop? This is where the real fear is coming from, for both sets of people know, the answer is most likely yes.

What is different this time:

            For all the talk of “range”, range is an issue that has little meaning to Israel. Where does the technology for these “homemade” rockets in Gaza come from? Who supplies the materials needed for such “homemade” weapons? Do the Mullahs and the Iranian military leaders truly believe Israel and the US don’t have the ability to analyze the structure of these weapons and determine their true origin? No, they are not that naive. What they are is confident. Confident the pressure on Israel to not over react is too great. Confident this latest event will be like all the others…… Tehran’s proxy fighters launch an improved weapon into Israel and the IDF is limited to nearly worthless counter air strikes on empty targets…..targets that still have value by the way, but that is a much more detailed discussion for another day. What the Mullahs are is confident. Well, let me tell you, in the history of warfare, many of the most critical errors made by “leaders” were based on Confidence.

            The Mullahs pulled Assad into a meeting without the Russians being in on the “plan”. Why? Simple, because the Mullahs have never intended on letting Moscow shape the future of Syria. Where they “confident” Moscow / Putin would overlook this embarrassment for the sake of not showing cracks in the Iranian, Russian so-called Alliance? Most likely. Was that a strategic level error on the Mullah’s part? OH… I can assure you it was. Have the Mullahs anticipated the US’s intent to limit Iran’s influence over Syria and Iraq. Yes. Have they convinced themselves unleashing one of their primary proxy fighters in Gaza is a way to distract the US? Remember what I said about the error of “Confidence”.

Desperation:

            In battle, what is just as dangerous as reckless “confidence”? Desperation! How long do you think it took for Moscow to let the Mullahs know ether verbally or non-verbally, Putin’s displeasure with the Assad stunt? Do the Iranian military commanders understand the impact of the Russians agreeing to let the US and “others” maneuver into a position to greatly change the capabilities of Iran inside of Iraq or Syria? Did the forced Assad trip potentially change the “game” in the region? By the way, if Assad is smart, “forced” is exactly how he better have shaped this trip when Putin called him……if Putin called him. What is the life expectancy of someone who double crosses Putin, when that someone is a proxy puppet? If the Mullahs are not over confident then they may very well be desperate. Yes, these limited rocket attacks have been taking place for some time now, but the targets they are reaching has become the issue and those targets are not being reached without the support and authority of the Mullahs. No one understands this better than Israel. So, what is said here? How does the so called leadership in Hamas respond to these attacks?

Abbas and Hamas:

            What is the one thing Abbas and Hamas have in common? Actually, it’s two things. Profit and power. The future wellbeing of those people who are praying and seeking shelter as I write this is not the concern of Abbas or Hamas. For Abbas, it’s yet another opportunity to show that Hamas cannot be trusted and has no compassion for the people of Gaza….. a slice of land Hamas took from Abbas. The death and destruction that might be about to take place in Gaza is good news to Abbas. Sick, but true. As for Hamas. There is only one set of individuals in Gaza they care about. The members of Hamas. The money and weapons they receive are based on their willingness to do someone else’s bidding. The daily thrill of walking the streets dressed like a Warrior is far more exciting to a young man than getting up at 5am and going to work in a bakery or some other manual labor job. The pool of Pawns is deep enough to keep the blood flowing for some time to come and the old men who manipulate Hamas know this.

            Look. I could go on and on, but the truth is simplistic if not sad. Gaza is yet another proxy for the ongoing struggles in the region. The more the Mullahs see Arab leaders talking to Israel, the more they are convinced their time is running out. Pulling the stunt with Assad may have set in motion events the old men in Tehran simply could not have anticipated. There can be only one question remaining. What does Israel do? Yes, it’s election time and yes Israeli citizens were injured. Does that play into this event? You bet it does? Did that factor into Tehran’s support for this latest attack? Yes. Do the old men in Tehran worry for the safety of the people in Gaza? No. Have they made a decision that could cost perhaps hundreds if not thousands of lives? Most likely. Here is the reality. The only side of this next event that will take into consideration the safety of the innocent, is Israel…..and guess what….the Arab Leaders know it. Playing games with Putin’s plans…………………………… A very risky concept for a group of old men trying to hang on to a 40 year old dream.

Dear Mullahs. Don’t believe for a minute, the move on Hamas is the only reaction you will witness from Moscow. Syria and Iraq had their courses changed with one trip by the Eye Doctor.