SNAPSHOT FOR WEEK ENDING FEB 17 2013.

I am going to make a real effort to start creating a "snapshot" on Saturdays, like I used to do little over a year ago.

Having said that, let's get down to it!

Lebanon:

The discussions this week on the election law guidelines along with the movement of oil from Lebanon into Syria made up the bulk of the discussions concerning Lebanon.

As emotional and potentially dangerous as the fuel support operations conducted by Lebanon towards Assad, is actually the election law issue that has everyone truly concerned.

When will the Lebanese elections take place and under what laws will it execute?

A delay in the elections themselves would prove more than dangerous for the overall stability of Lebanon and is for that reason I am somewhat convinced the delay will not take place.

If a final disposition of election laws is not agreed upon, the concerns of Hezbollah and their supporters will most likely be the main topic of discussion in the coming week.

Simply put, Lebanon could easily become an issue pushes the forefront in the coming week, if not now!

Bahrain:

Those that follow the Middle East know all too well how involved the Iranians truly are in the social turmoil's involving the government of Bahrain.

As tense as issues may be in Bahrain, the death of a protester this week was an event that should have been avoidable for Bahrain.

The big picture for Bahrain is simple; Iran was to apply as much pressure inside of Bahrain and eventually on the GCC as possible.

Now, the fact that Iran is trying so desperately to accomplish this task is no excuse for Bahrain's mismanagement of the protest to take place there.

Bahrain is, was, and continues to be a slow burning fuse that Iran would love to see explode in the GCC desperately wants to avoid.

The counter actions of the government of Bahrain are less coordinated and less effective than a more simplistic tactic of the GCC applying counter pressure on Iran.

Simply put, it's easy for the GCC the counterstrike that it is for them to find a viable option for Bahrain.

Having said that, we can anticipate some type of "tit-for-tat" reprisal in the near future, most likely in Syria.

Syria: 

Several times this week I actually laughed out loud as I read articles dealing with the identified Syrian government in exile and how they were planning for a post Assad Syria.

With each passing day, it becomes more and more clear who really is winning the war in Syria and it is not anyone closely associated with this " recognized: / new Syrian government.

My laughter was quickly interrupted by the death of the Iranian General on Syrian ground.

Iran has openly been in support of Assad from day one, but this event and the public response it generated from key Iranian leaders was more than a signal of the increased / open / operations inside Syria.

My other comment on this event is based upon my changing viewpoint on how this event took place.

Finding such a target in the open with a PSD / Personal Security Detail/ as advanced as this General would have had, is a real indication that the theory of the Israelis taking him out may not be that farfetched.

Even if the Israelis are not responsible for his death, it is nearly impossible to convince Iranian leadership they didn't.  

As I stated a few days ago, it's an event that will lead to some level of Iranian response.

If they truly wished to cover up his existence in Syria, they would not have said the things about him that came out at his funeral.

As is always the case in international politics, the message was in the message!!!

Egypt:

This one is simple; Morsi has to question the support of the Egyptian Military now more  than ever.

His attempt at purging the General Officer ranks last year may not have produced the results he had anticipated.

It's clear the thirty years of relationships between the Egyptian military and the military of Israel / IDF / goes deeper than just a few senior Generals.

Blocking the Hamas Headquarters issue and flooding the tunnels leading into Gaza are clear indications not only to Israel, but to Morsi himself on just were the Egyptian Military stands.

The current unrest in Egypt may be keeping Morsi up at night, but I can guarantee you the fear of Egyptian Military loyalty is a far greater nightmare right now for not only Mr Morsi, but for the Muslim Brotherhood as well.

What to look for in the coming week:

The battle for Damascus is something I truly believe is being severely underestimated.

If Assad's Brother's unit is damaged beyond levels we are currently aware of, Damascus could fall like Saigon!!!!

As many have said for some time now, Assad's propensity to utilize his chemical weapons will never be more pressing then the rapid fall of central Damascus.

Could this happen this week?

I believe the rebels are much closer to taking Damascus than the common "Joe" realizes.

The other possible  big event that could unfold this coming week is Hezbollah.

The message Israel sent by striking the movement in Syria was unmistakable.

If Assad and Iran wanted to try to prevent the big Push for Damascus, then forcing an issue inside of Lebanon could be just the ticket.