ACTUAL CONFLICT IN THE UKRAINE… HOW MIGHT IT PLAY OUT?

Well, we are back to the point of “imminent invasion” by the Tsar….Again!!!

By the end of the day, the talk of pending conflict was hot and heavy.

Is the Tsar about to make his next move?

Possibly, but let’s ask the bigger question; what will happen if he does?

The international questions that could come from such an event are too many to contemplate; but I think you can rule out “WWIII”… just drama talk!!

So, let’s take a look at what might take place at the tactical level and if I remember correctly, I’ve talked about his before. But…what the heck… let’s do it again.

Let me do this analysis from a different perspective.

Instead of talking about what might happen, let me take a shot on how I would do it if I was the Russian Commander for this operation.

First off, many of the initial objectives of a combined arms conflict based on taking and holding ground are universal and that allows us to accurately “guess” what might happen first.

What is significant is anticipating if the initial movement will be limited or full throttle?

Again, let me step back into the shoes of Commander and try to paint  a picture for all to comprehend.

First off, I would insure I understand implicitly the “end state” the Tsar is looking for.

Secondly; I would insure I have everything I need in position to make that task successful and I would not allow second rate units to be responsible for any mission that could prove to be single points of failure.

This takes time and it takes “just in time training”.. Troops must not just “know” the plan, they must be able to execute it.

Once I knew my forces were ready, I would let the Tsar know his forces were ready and waiting for his orders……PS.. .you better be right!!!!

At the same time, I assume my enemies are able to observe what preparation I’m taking.

Yes.. It’s called, “declaring an ‘exercise’”, but you must realize those “exercises” are observed.

You must realized your enemies military leadership is more than interested in what takes place in these “exercises”….given they are most likely “Rock Drills” for the real event.

Now the real smart Commanders know these “exercises” are observed for  just that reason and deception becomes a interracial part of the process.

Ok, So I insure I know the mission, have my forces ready and do my best to insure my enemies are not confident what my concept of operations is… I hope…

Again, this all takes time and prepping the Battlefield is critical.

So, how would I prep the Battlefield?

Well, if you have been paying attention, you’ve seen this process taking place for about three weeks now.

Information Operations, social media and funds to those who can do my dirty work…..that is how I would do it and that is exactly what we have been witnessing.

The Boss gives the Green light: 

 So, the moment comes when the Tsar says, “Execute”.

At that moment in time, my rule number one is to insure nothing about the “plan” has changed and that question can only be answered by one person…. The Boss.

Once I know nothing has changed, I insure all of my key leaders also understand nothing has changed.

Off I go…. And the only thing that matters is reaching the goal set in front of me…. No distractions unless they come from my superior.

Phase One:

Neutralize / degrade the enemy’s ability to counter my offensive.

A.    Rule the skies and rule them quickly.

SIDE NOTE:   What was the talk today….. oh ya… Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace… make them “paint me”… show me were your anti air is.. ..Where has it moved to… That is what we witnessed today.

B.     Dominate the communications spectrum.

Look at what took place in Georgian in the early hours of that conflict.

C.     Dominate the information spectrum.

Who is doing what to whom and who is trying to stop it.

Who looks like the bad guy and who looks like the good guy.

Here is a hint.. that is not important in the early hours of the operations at the international level…it’s vital at the local level….. you need pictures of being welcomed upon arrival!

D.     Insure the Ukrainian leadership looks as helpless and unable to function as possible.

Phase Two:

Stop what you started as quickly as possible!

Here is the “old think’ of Army doctrinal planning… Phase 1,2,3,4…. Old Kinetic warfare ‘think”!!!

Gone….. Historical markers that some old leaders cannot stop believing in.

I would start this conflict violently with the resolve to do whatever it took to reach my objective and drive to end the conflict before the rest of the world gets it’s “act together”.

I would want a 100 hr war more or less.

It’s something the Russians attempted in Georgia and they have most likely worked had to refine the process since then.

The First thing the reluctant West is going to want is to see a succession to open conflict as quickly as possible.

Fight… fight violently… make you enemy look weak and incompetent and then announce the desire to “talk”!

Talk about new boundaries… new requirements for governance and state these talks should take place inside the one organization known for taking years to talk about even one topic…. The United Nations.

Well.. This might seem simplistic, but the Russian have worked hard on simplistic goals orientated combat utilizing unconventional methods and I simply don’t see them not taking this course of action in the Ukraine….. I would!!!

Tomorrow.. I will talk about the one real danger with this philosophy …. The tactical level of failure!