IRAN. THE FALL OF THE MULLAHS, AND THEN WHAT?
Okay,
before I get started, let me correct something from a few days ago. Somehow,
and I really don’t know how, I labeled Egodan as a Shia. In the old days, this
would have been called a, “Brain Fart”. Anyway, I was just sitting here,
thinking about the situation with Turkey and it came to me, I had actually
written that down. As Bill Clinton use to say, “mistakes have been made…. let’s
just move on”😊. Wow, I wonder if that
would work for Team Trump?
Iran’s
rulers. Are they closer to being tossed out than in the past? Is there really a
chance the Mullahs’ may be given the boot? If you spent your day reading the
economic news about Iran, you might just think there’s a chance. The price of
an egg is the same for a military member’s family as it is for any other
citizen and that makes economic conditions a very dangerous tool. Can the Mullahs find a way to feed the entire
military, with the IRGC families given priority of course, without the rest of
the nation finding out? Nope. Do military members, even IRGC members, hear from
their loved ones and friends how bad things are getting? Yes. Are things really
getting as bad as some are reporting? The US Intelligence Community / IC /
knows the answer to that question and that information is briefed at the White
House every morning. Are members of Iran’s military growing tired of the
conditions they are told to support?
Collapse.
Just
how fast could things fall apart in Iran? What would happen if the protesters
in Tehran numbered in the tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands? How
long did it take for the government in Egypt, a nation that was far more stable
than Iran currently is, to fall? Let me put this issue in a different
perspective. What is the plan if the government in Iran disappears and does so
quickly? Is that a better scenario than what took place in Syria or is it
worse? Everyone is cheering for the fall of the Mullahs and everyone is
cheering for the protestors, but what is the alternative? What is the “plan”
incase the wildest dreams do come true? Who fills the void? Who chooses the
Provisional Government that would need to be established? Does anyone think
Moscow has had this conversation with the US? How many nations would want to
have a say in a Post Mullah Iran? Everyone is praying for a collapse, but an
old saying holds true, “Be careful what you ask for”.
Highjacked:
What happened to the
Arab Spring? It was…..yep….Highjacked. What happen to the Russian Revolution
against the Tsar? Yep….highjacked. How many honest uprisings have resulted in
some other movement taking advantage of the public uprising, only to end up
with some new version of oppression? History is covered with this storyline.
Who is sitting in the shadows as I right this, plotting to highjack the
possible revolution in Iran? Worse yet, who is lining up to support these
groups in the shadows? The possible courses of Actions on Iran are being
modified by the US / IC/ world daily and you can rest assured, the same thing
is taking place in Moscow, and multiple other capitals. Earlier, I asked the
question, is Moscow and the US talking about this possibility? If you gut told
you no, you’re probably right, but then again, I hope that’s not true and for
the people of Iran, I pray that’s not true. If the big two are not talking
about the possible fall of the Iranian government, then those I spoke of off in
the shadows are going to have a huge advantage.
The List:
Okay. Who are these
groups that might be plotting the high jacking of the possible Iranian
Revolution? Right off the top of my head, one name comes to mind. The Sultan!
Yep…..Egodan! Would he love to shape the
future of a new Iranian government? Absolutely. Would he make a play for the
Iranian public’s support based on the threat of “outside” interference”? Yes.
Who would he be referring to? The US and even Moscow? Yes. Without Iran’s
input, who is left to shape the future of Iraq and Syria? Who would be
Hezbollah’s Puppet Master? What an opportunity for the Sultan to extend his
rule. Do you think he will enter into an honest conversation with the US and or
Russia about the topic? Not hardly. How soon would someone like the Sultan
attempt to put such a plan into motion? Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t already
have his fingers in the pie. Is there anyone he might collaborate with? Isn’t
there a Sunni takes over the Shia Capital issue to think about here? Is Saudi
and Israel just going to sit back and let everyone else rebuild the new Iran?
Saudi.
For all the plotting
the Sultan may be dreaming of, why wouldn’t Saudi be doing the same thing? Is
there the possibility Saudi also has their fingers in the pie? You bet, and
probably more than the Sultan. Now, has Saudi talked to anyone about a post
Mullah Iran? Could the Kingdom and the US and or Moscow have at least approached
the topic? What would a post Mullah Iran look like from the balconies of Riyadh?
If you forget the possibility of a Trump Putin love fest, and come to the
realization that no such thing exists, who would Saudi have this conversation
with? How could the centerpiece of the Sunni faith be accepted by the rest of
the Shia world if they were seen as molding the future of Iran? If the Sultan
and the Saudis both have dreams of a Puppet government in Tehran, just how hard
will those dreams clash? Would ether side be willing to fund / support yet another
Civil War in the region? Have you been watching Syria for the past few years? Would
they both be on the same side and then against each other? Could Syria be
repeated? Religion is vital to the region, but it takes a backseat to egos and
oil!
Israel.
Who are the best
planners in the region? If you didn’t answer the Israelis, you’re fooling yourself.
What would a post Mullah Iran look like to Israel? This time, the answer is
much different. Two conditions would be given the highest priority. 1. The complete
dismantling of the nuclear program, and I mean a real dismantling, not the joke
signed in 2015. 2. The abandonment of Hezbollah. Who is Hezbollah without Iran? What is the future
of Lebanon without Hezbollah? Where would Hezbollah go? What would they turn
into? My hunch is they would try their level best to convert the rest of their influence
into a purely political party. Look at the IRA as the example here.
So,
there you have it. The Israeli vision of a new Iran is one that has no nuclear
program. One that has no proxy fighters named Hezbollah and a border with
Lebanon that is finally secured. No dreams of a puppet government in Tehran.
Israel would leave that up to Saudi, the US and Moscow. The Sultan? Not so much.
The
end of the Mullahs would lead to one other issue that Israel would be forced to
address. Yep. The Palestinian people. No threats from inside Lebanon. No parades
in Tehran demanding the death of Israel. The whole issue of state-ship would
come to the table and most likely it would come quickly. The pressure to find a
true answer would be squarely on the shoulders of Israel.
The Region.
Would
the whole region stabilize with the fall of the Mullahs? That’s a very, very
complex question. Do the Mullahs go quickly and peacefully? Does someone have a
“plan” that can be agreed to if the fall does take place? If not, then the question
about the region becomes one with a simple answer. There will be no peace. In
reality, the region may see an even greater event than the destruction of
Syria. Yep, out there in the shadows are the ones that will bring greater
problems to the region and the world. Someone needs to come up with a plan and
it needs to be one that is agreed to. Some may want the Mullahs to stay and the
funds of China may come into play at some point, but if the people in Iran can’t
buy eggs in two or three weeks, you better drop that Chinese money from squadrons of Chinese
Bombers.