MORE
TALK OF " FREE ZONES OR "SAFE HAVENS".
It
appears the conversation of " free zones" in Syria are back on the
front burner along with the term of " Safe Havens".
The
comment by the US Secretary of State in the past few days and then the issue of
possible " Safe Havens" being created by Islamic Radical groups like
IQA has once again given the free zone issue a time slot in the media.
Now,
the US Secretary of State's comment was based on the possibility of the rebels actually
controlling enough ground on the border of Syria to provide an operational
staging area.
I am
sure I'm not alone when I say, this idea is a stretch at best!
Any
area the rebels may try to declare a " Safe Haven" will come under
intense attack by a Syrian military this less restricted with each passing day.
If
you ever wanted to invite the threat of WMD operations, then let the rebels announce
such an area with only supporters left living in it.
In
fact, what the rebels would be doing is providing the Syrian military a
conventional warfare target.
In
reality the rebels would be changing tactics from a prolonged and so far successful
unconventional fight into a standard, purely kinetic weapons fight; something a
large standing military is designed to deal with.
A
fixed target area with operational, logistical events taking place is a
conventional target and would be treated as such.
As
has always been the case, the topic of a rebel free zone will still require air
superiority and that is something the rebels have no chance of executing
without "outside help".
Remember,
it is this threat of "outside help" that Assad and Iran have both
threatened to respond to.
So, I
think the concept of a rebel "Free Zone" is still as distant as it
was over a year ago if not further away than before.
By
the way; a city that is in partial rebel control or a border crossing is not a
" free zone".
WHAT
ABOUT THE TALK OF A IAQ / AQ / "FREE ZONE" ON THE IRAQ BORDER:
If
there is an organization that has addpated to the "Free Zone"
concept, it's AQ and IAQ.
IAQ
conducted just such an operation against the US for the past nine years working
out of Syria.
The
expectations of what a "Free Zone" should provide are much different
for AQ.
That
issue is the key point of difference when someone talks about "Free
Zones" for the rebels and "Free Zones" for AQ.
To
organizations like IAQ, a "Free Zone" is still a covert location
where missions are still covertly planned and prepared.
To
the Western way of thinking, a "Free Zone" is more like a Beachhead
as in D Day; a location where one can execute day to day operations with impunity.
Given
this doctoral difference in what a " Free Zone" is, all the talk of a
"free zone" being established in Syria, might be much more achievable for IAQ / SAQ
than for the rebels.
IAQ/
SAQ "free zones" will be a version of
living inside the host!.
My
speculation is, IAQ / SAQ and others are already operating "Free
Zones" inside or near Syira; namely in Iraq.
The
simple fact of the matter is this!
Assad's
dwindling forces are in a desperate struggle to save Aleppo and
Damascus
without destroying the very cities they are attempting to save.
The
issue for Syria is no longer just that of a civil war.
The
concern for Syria is now what many feared over a year ago.
Syria
is becoming the battle ground of a sectarian war.
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