MOQTADA AL-SADR….. AN UPDATE!
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the reemergence of al-Sadr in Iraq
and the question of, “why now”?
Well, it’s Friday and we all know big speeches come on
Friday! So, what has Sadr been up to in the past two weeks and what was the
message today?
Same theme, increased threats. That is how I would shape
Sadr’s update. Pressure with threats of crowds has now taken the next step.
Crowds that he now threatens to turn into dangerous protest that is the real
change. Two weeks ago, it was the good old fashion “sit in”, but now, it’s the,
‘there will be trouble’, button he is pushing.
Now, when I last spoke of Sadr, my opinion was he was
feeling threatened. His perception of he was being left out of the Shia
movements, more specifically the fighting units of Shia the Persians had placed
into action against I.S. I still believe
that is his core issue, but I am also more and more convinced he sees his
window of opportunity reopened with the changing events in Syria.
The classic power vacuum! Did the Russian’s create one with
the perception, yes, perception, they pulled out of Syria? Did this move by the
Tsar set the Persians off balance so much that Sadr believed the timing was
right to get back into the Iraqi leadership game? Yes, his words and called for
gatherings started just prior to the Russian withdrawal, but he has moved from
words to action and I’m not sure he felt the timing was right until he perceived
an opportunity with the Iranians.
As a reminder, Sadr is no longer the Persian puppet he once
was. I’m one of the folks who never, truly believed he was in the first place.
An advantage taker? An opportunist who used the Persians to move his vision of
Iraq forward? That’s the mold I have always thought he fit.
So, the update is simple.
Sadr is taking his plan to the next phase and that phase
calls for disruptive, angry crowds!
His message?
Iran no longer gets to call the shots in Iraq!
You don’t believe it?
Let’s keep watching as see who ends up being correct.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/03/25/Iraq-s-Sadr-threatens-unrest-if-reforms-blocked.html
