SIGNS AND WARNING SIGNS!!!
So; As I mentioned last night, we should be watching for "signs" The IDF, Israeli Defense Force and the nation itself is preparing for a major conflict.
Here is the problem; Israel just may try to make this event as much as a "cold start" as possible.
It's not possible to execute in a complete vacuum, but the speed at which Israel launches into an operation can be drastically reduced by assuming a level of "risk".
Before we look at what a "cold start" operation may look like, or for that matter what options Israel has all together, let me get back on the original theme for tonight.
First off; it's virtually impossible now days to mobilize a modern day military without setting off alarm bells just about everywhere. What becomes tenuous is not second guessing what your Ally or your Enemy is doing and thus making the situation even worse. I.E. Just because a Nation begins to act like it is getting ready for war, doesn't absolutely mean they are. Throughout history the tactic of " look at us, we are not kidding" has been used. The book of Brinkmanship has many twist and making one's enemies think they are driving towards a war is just one chapter in the book.
So what does this mean? Before we start to believe all the signs we might start to see, we must make a decision on the art of "deception" under the disguise of Brinkmanship.
Once we are convinced the signs are legitimate, we need to quickly calculate the complexity of them in order to grasp the severity of what may be about to happen.
As an example, If we hear that Israel is purchasing supplies for its hospital system above and beyond it's normal supply cycle, that is a "sign"!! Determining when the supplies requested will be delivered is just one example of calculating, or in the world of intelligence geeks, " analyzing", the significance of the "signs".
I hope the picture and the process of Nation State Tea Leaf Reading, is becoming a little more clear now. If not, turn on Boob Tube and live the happy life of an Ostrich!
Ok; down and dirty on what "signs" to watch for!
1. Listed above: Hospital and other " first responders" buildup. Has to be done.. The public will not stand for civilian casualties in Israel without proper medical preparation.
2. IDF air force bases with a higher than normal Ops Tempo.
Hint: This and many other military "signs" are easily masked by standing up and standing down over and over again over a period of time. Old trick that is worth its weight in gold when it comes to confusing the enemy.
3. Roadway preparations. The last thing any government wants going on when they are getting ready to move large segments of their society are large construction / roadway projects. Again an issue the public would never forgive the government for.
Making an entire list would not only be a time drain but at some point it becomes very subjective and thus pointless.
The concept of knowing what particular "signs" to look for should be limited to large, strategic topics.
What is more important is understanding why this observation process should take place and on top of everything else, we should not simply rely on our government to be the keepers of this process. This is the power of a free and unbiased press. Unbiased is the key statement here!
Ok; on Monday I will go over options Israel has and why they may or may not chose to use them.
If you think Egypt is free and the world is heading in the right direction, then you are prbably missing this week's episode of Bimbos of Hollywood.
