let me start by stating I doubt seriously the UN and it's
contributing partners are considering pulling the Peace Keeping Mission after
this weeks kidnapping event.
The fact the individuals were returned so quickly is a
strong indication of just how important everyone involved realize this event
was.
Now, there's no mistaking you and marked vehicles and
individuals anyone other than what they truly are, so the fact that they were
taken not be ruled as a "mistake".
What troubles everyone is the realization that this action
is an indication of just how leaderless this region of Syria has become.
There's been a great deal of talk about the Syrian military
troops that had been removed from this area and the fact that it would create a
"vacuum" which Israel 's
enemies could quickly fill.
One theory I think we can put the bed quickly is the concept
that this action took place in order to create a vacuum on the Israeli border
for Israelis enemies be in position to conduct operations inside of Israel.
Even if this was the intent of some Islamic fundamentalist/Palestinian/operational
group, it obviously did not have the support from their higher authorities.
In short, it is my opinion that a small economist group took
it upon themselves to put their name on the map by kidnapping group of unarmed
United Nations peacekeepers; in fact they did just that for no one had heard of
their group prior to this event, at least no one in the open press.
So what does this event really mean to us?
Does it indicate just how destabilize the Syrian border has
become in the Golan Heights ?
Absolutely!
Does it indicate Israel will have to further deploy
the IDF in order to ensure its safety?
The answer is, to some degree yes.
Another important question needs to be asked is the issue of,
id this event change anything?
I'm sure it has rekindled the conversation of United Nations
peacekeeper safety, especially unarmed peacekeepers; the concept that I find
utterly ridiculous myself!
In the eyes of the Israelis, as emotional as this event may
have become, they will not overreact.
With the current issues in Syria
and the pending election crisis in Lebanon
and now the new fires in Egypt ,
this kidnapping event will quickly fall from the headlines.
The attached article speaks to the IDF's training exercises
include its reserve forces for pending as blah operations and I find that topic
far more important in this blip on the UN radar.
No one should doubt that the Israelis understand the
vulnerabilities of Hezbollah this moment in time and the strategic value of
their neutralization to the Iranian government.
Simply put, Hezbollah is vulnerable and they know it and the
Iranians know and most importantly the Israelis know it.
The election law controversy Lebanon is easily the spark that
could ignite a Sunni Shia civil war yet again; simply put it could be the
excuse needed by those who would like to see this event take place.
Oddly enough I'm not convinced at this moment in time that
group includes the Israelis.
How the Israelis deal with Hezbollah and one poorly when
they deal with Hezbollah the topic only the IDF and its leadership truly knows.
If conflict would break out in Lebanon , with that become the
trigger for the IDF to engage Hezbollah forces?
Would Israel
take the opportunity of chaos in Lebanon to pull away most important
proxy fighter of the Iranian government.
Hezbollah must avoid violence in Lebanon at all cost, but the
ability to do so is fading fast.
In my opinion the time has come to put a great deal of
effort reviewing the classic "second and third order effects" and the
"law of unintended consequences"!
Winter weather soon to leave the region and the warmth of
spring makes it conducive for young men to fight even more.
With the heat of the day comes the anger of prejudice and
bigotry and hopelessness and these are the major ingredients in the conflicted Arias of Lebanon.
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=305748
