CONTINUED REVIEW OF SYRIAN / TURKISH INCIDENT.

As I warned yesterday, the "facts" and the "opinions" on this incident are becoming diluted.

It's based, as it should be, on the "politics" of the incident.

Did Syrian Air Defense / ADA / shoot down the Turkish jet based on poor training, weak rules of engagement, paranoia over their own pilots defecting, Turkish pilots not paying attention????

The more important question continues to be, was it an accident or was it a initial step in a far more complex plan.

The second question, and perhaps the most critical question becomes, what does Turkey believe?

            Sub issue:  How does Turkey " use" the event?

Let's take a look at what would have to have taken place if Syria took this action deliberately.

Would Assad risk his support from Russia and more importantly Iran, without some level of consultation?

Is he so confident, based on how he perceives their support for  Syria, that he would authorize the shooting down of a NATO aircraft without even giving Moscow and Tehran a warning?

There is a huge difference between being "decisive" and being an "Incompetent"!!!

I think we all know what camp Assad falls into.

So, for the sake of trying to figure out what is going on here, let's assume, dangerous thing I know, but let's assume Assad had given some indication to both Russia and Iran.

Let's assume he may have made some statement, perhaps weeks ago, that Syria would not tolerate the possibility of "Outside Interference".

Oh... That's right..... He has already made this statement time and time again?

Was anyone, Turkey, really listening?

Oh, ya.. don't forget the Turkish Fighter is a " NATO" Fighter!

All right, let's move on.....

Let's assume the Syrian military has had standing orders to challenge, up to interception, any aircraft entering Syrian airspace.

            Side note: Did the Turkish Fighter enter Syrian airspace? P.S. It happens all over   the world.

Now, let's assume that a micromanaged, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander is notified a " fast mover" is approaching his Air of Operation.

Let's assume this same Commander has just been part of a larger " butt chewing" the day before over the issue of the Syrian Fighter defecting.

Now, has this Air Defense Commander ever had a Fast Mover approaching his AO before?

Probably.

Has he ever had it happen the day after his entire chain of command had their heads handed to them for the defection event?

Nope.

Does he command a unit that he knows by and large is anti Assad?

Probably.

So, he panics, orders the "unknown" Fast Mover intercepted and the next thing he knows, he has shot down a Turkish Fighter Jet????

Maybe!

By the way, do you think he would be a little curious about just ONE jet approaching the Syrian airspace?

Was it just one?

For all you Air Force folks out there.. how many "solo" flights does the Turkish Air Force fly; in a region where tensions are about as high as they can get?

So, the phone rings in Assad's Command and he is initially informed of the event.

What did he do?

Did he call Moscow or Tehran and let them know before the Turkish news media and government make an announcement?

I bet not and that may have been a huge if not fatal mistake.

If Assad didn't properly set up this event; if he didn't get " support" for such a volatile act, then his support may have gone down with the NATO aircraft.

A even more dangerous theory:

But, and this is a huge "but"; but just what if Moscow and Tehran were ready for this event to take place?

What if, Assad was following a plan that has been written out for him incase his ability to hold onto power in Syria was about to fail?

I can't get my mind around this theory, unless you separate the two supporting nations.

Could it be this escalation was a Iranian sponsored event without Moscow support?

Would Putin really support the concept of shooting down a NATO partner aircraft?

His actions since coming back into power have been bold and he knows he has "issues" inside his own country, but supporting a regional conflict, something they have warned about, really?????

I just don't know that I believe it.

Now, Iran is an entirely different story!

For months now, really over a year, I have said the fall of Syria is an unacceptable event for Iran; a " Red Line" they would be willing to cross!

On mutual occasions I have spelled out my " Use or Lose" theory from the Iranian viewpoint.

Over the past few weeks the world has witnessed several hurried meetings between Moscow, Iran and Syria; one on one and as a group and that is only the list of meetings that we overtly know of.

What was decided?

What was talked about?

Ruthless world Leaders don't take the time to sit down and argue over dead-end topics.

Remember, after several of these " meetings" the very first thing the Russians would come to the microphone and say was, how dangerous the situation in Syria was becoming and how it would have repercussions for the whole region.

Ok, let's assume:

Let's assume the Iranians have their " Red Line" and when they reach one of those Red Lines, they have a series of actions they are willing to risk.

Let's assume one of those actions is a " warning" event.

Let's assume this warning event is based on the typical, historical warning events of aircraft and airspace.

Let's assume, that if this " warning" didn't have the desired outcome, and I don't believe there is any chance that it will, Iran was looking for, then there will be another and most likely more dangerous.

Conclusion:

I have looked at two possible scenarios as to how this event took place and the bottom line is..... it's all about to get worse.

Europe is desperate to avoid  more bad news, such as a NATO partner, regional war although some would probably argue the European economy needs a " good war" right about now.. a real dumb theory that idiots always come up with.. the Black Helicopter Gang!

The US administration would like the whole world and the world economy to simply sail along like a scene from the Teletubbies.

Turkey; well from day one of the Arab Spring, the Ottomans have worked hard to figure out a way to be the Regional "Leader".

That is the problem here and I think that is the problem Iran didn't properly think through, if this event was their idea.

The Turks get a vote on what do to about the "event".

A regional war is not what Turkey needs or wants, in my opinion.

But, if Iran, the Persians, overstep the limits, then the Ottomans may show the world they are ready to be  the true stabilizing force in the Middle East.

In the end, my  opinion is a reckless, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander has pushed the region to the brink of conflict.

A conflict that Iran and the Turks cannot come out looking like the losers!

Turkish " Perception" and "vision" is the key to the next few days.

Hold on...