ATTACKING US ASSETS. “ A BIG MISTAKE”? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
“ I have a feeling it was a mistake”? What? So, some air defense battery commander was authorized to fire on US assets in the area of operations? So, some localized commander made a “mistake”? Is that what The Donald meant when he put out his tweet? Did the US President invent himself an offramp? Is this just his way of saying, “ I don’t want a shooting event with Iran”? Let’s take a look at the issue of the “mistake” and see what other issue may be out there that make this no mistake.
How it works:
Can a regional commander have release authority over his weapons? Yes. Are those release authorities based upon some very stringent guidelines? Yes. Could a local commander be given bad information by a poorly trained weapon systems team as to the location of a hostile aircraft? Maybe. Tracking systems are far more accurate today than just a few years ago and the reporting of inaccurate locations would be unusual even for a poorly trained unit. Would that unit know the signature difference between a drone and a manned aircraft? Yes. Would the commander of the IRGC have a fiery speech ready based upon the “mistake” of a local commander? Folks…..there is the sticking point and it’s not just that sticking point that has me worried about The Donald’s desire to avoid an increasingly aggressive Iranian government.
Other key indicators:
I can’t remember if I addressed the issue of IRGC and Al-Qud forces moving out of typical operating locations in Syria and Iraq a few months ago, but I’m fairly sure I did. Have I mentioned the decaying relationship between Tehran and Moscow? Yes. Have I mentioned the decaying ability of Tehran to pay Hamas and other proxy fighting units? Yes. Have I mentioned the stories of Iran’s leadership moving the IRGC and Al-Qud forces under the Iranian regular military and how bizarre that seemed? Yes. Has it seemed like the old men in Tehran have become more embolden in the past month…6 ships attacked…increased advanced weapons fired into Saudi by Iran’s proxy fighters in Yemen? What’s the mainstream media buzzwords….. more aggressive? Have Iranian militias begun to once again target compounds in Iraq that house US forces? Have Iranian forces fired upon US assets that were watching their actions as they approached ships they had attacked? And now……. has Tehran suddenly had a local commander make a “mistake”…. a mistake that was followed up by the IRGC’s commander’s emotional warning?
Sometimes you just have to fight:
I get it. The Donald campaigned on not wanting to get involved in useless, never-ending wars but he is also the same person who said the US will be respected again. It seems what he is finding out is just how hard it is to have both goals. Was his approach to North Korea effective? At best, that answer is inconclusive, but it seems the Chinese just today placed the Dragon’s wings back over the Little Fat Boy for protection….so that has changed. The Iranian leadership has been effectively backed into a corner and is almost on it’s economic knees thanks to the approach The Donald has formulated. But….here is the problem and it’s a problem his staff seems to have forgotten, at least some of them. If you back someone into a corner and they believe they have no way out, they have two options, give in or fight. The old men in Tehran have chosen to fight and they may very well be willing to fight to the death. It doesn’t matter what the Iranian people want. Their voice has not been heard in over forty years. What matters to the tyrants in Tehran is staying in power and I truly believe they see no way out.
Can the critics of the US President make the argument this potential crisis is the result of the administration’s policies towards Iran? Let me answer that with a little slice of reality. If the nuclear “deal” that Obama signed in the middle of the night would have continued, the risk of a full scale war between Israel and Iran was a reality and a reality the US could not stop. The Mullahs have a vision for coverage of their power and that coverage is far larger than Iran. That vision openly calls for the destruction of Israel. Wishing this reality away like the Teletubbies of the EU want so desperately is simply allowing the issue to become critical. If Tehran is attempting to push the US into a fight, a fight they anticipate the rest of the world will demand the US stop and sit down at the negotiation table, then the events of today are not going to be the last. More “mistakes” are going to be made and I’m not sure how many times The Donald can blame an overzealous local commander.
I think this fight is coming and I’ve written about what type of fight this could be. A fight that is much different than the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. It was a post I did both on this blog site and on my podcast site just a few days ago. Thank goodness I did those, because I really don’t feel like going over that again. As for the US President. Sometimes you have to fight and worry about public opinion afterwards. That time is closing in on him.
