RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE AND WHY THEY HAVE TO GO “BIG”!

Yesterday,  I commented on how the Tsar may execute Russia’s operation into the Ukraine.

What I failed to mention, or reemphasize, was the reality that this process was already well underway and had been for several months if not longer.

But, as I promised, let’s look at the tactical issues of the Russian operation and understand why in the long run, the reality will be they will have to go “BIG” or risk losing the intimidation factor they seem to be enjoying right now.

The so called experts have talked from time to time about the tremendous advantage, technology and numbers wise the Russian have over what is left of the Ukrainian military and how an actual kinetic fight between the two would be “lopsided”!

Is the Ukrainian military degraded?

Absolutely!

Trust… training…… logistical legs… these are all issues that limit the Ukrainian forces from executing combined arms operations.

Is the advantage so overwhelming the Russian Commanders are convinced they can limit their commitment to a pending conflict?

Absolutely not!

First and foremost, every military combatant commander who is worth their paycheck never plans on underestimating their opponent…. The all want the same environment….overwhelming numbers both in manpower and in equipment.

Every good combatant Commander lives by the rule of “4 to 1”… it takes four offensive members to overwhelm one defensive member.

If you accept this principle of warfare, then you understand the numbers we keep hearing about along the Ukrainian border.

Now, even with superior numbers, most combatant commanders will still plan for in great detail for the issue they are worried most about.

What don’t they know?

What assumptions might be incorrect?

What have the intelligence experts miscalculated?

These are the issues that drive the commanders to increase their numbers and often slow their advancement timeline.

The true tactical issue at hand:

Are the Russian forces that superior to the Ukrainian forces?

Better communications gear?

Better intelligence?

Better armored units?

Better air assets?

Let me pose this point in another way.

What if the well anticipated and talked about “invasion” began and the first thing the media picked up on was something that was not going well for the Russians?

How disastrous would that be for the Tsar’s worldly image?

What if our intelligence actually was able to witness a “state of the art.. .or so the Russians claim, Combat Brigade and what was observed was poor execution?

What if the new 21^st century, rebuilt Russian Army was bogged down in taking a small village with a ragtag Ukrainian military?

Will the Russians have causality aversion like the West currently has?

Simply put, what happens to the Tsar’s status if the operation does go as well as the media insured the world that it would?

Does the Ukrainian military have to have a real victory over the mighty Russian machine in order to “win” the conflict?

How damaging is this possibility and how threatening is it to the military leaders of the Russian force?

Who calls the Tsar and says, “Yes Sir.. We are having difficulties, just like the BBC / Al Jazeera, Fox and CNN are reporting”!

Let’s look at this from a historical viewpoint.

What was the strategically theory behind the “ Big Red Machine”?

Overwhelming numbers and crushing force at all times!!!

That is what the Soviet Military was built upon and that is what the West feared for decades.

When Russia announced it’s “restructuring of it’s military, the message was based on a new way of conducting warfare…. Combined Arms operations with Joint Forces in the lead… something they never truly believed in.

This “modernization” concept did everything to show the world the “ new Russia”.

It did very little to doctrinally teach it’s young military leaders Joint / Combined / Asymmetric warfare!

As I have said in the past, if you don’t believe me, just go look at how they handled Grozny.

A few new units and a few well-placed placed governmentally controlled media reports is not enough execute a strategic shift in conducting warfare.

What the world is witnessing near the Ukraine are selected “showcase” units and a great deal of information operations!

I’m not convinced senior Russian military leaders believe they are going to gain control of a nation like Ukraine with a few non patch wearing Special Forces units… .hell… even most of the Western Senior Military Commanders don’t truly believe this is the future of warfare; thus the buildup we have witnessed.

When the time comes, the move into the Ukraine will be large….it will be fast… and it will require as little “risk” as possible.

Risk…. as in the reputation of the Tsar!