IRAN…. NUKES .. AND RUMORS OF WAR!

Well, if Iran or others are trying to stay in the top fold of the news this week, they are doing a fine job.

The attached article about the comments of Robert Baer and Meir Dagan is interesting not just in what it says, but in how it goes about validating the comments.

Leaving out the personalities of both Baer and Dagan, it is obvious their reputations make their comments worthy of review.

The  consistent anti Netanyahu theme of Al Jazeera is not overlooked as one of the main reasons why  they would cover this story.

I’ve not looked today, but I am sure this story played large in the Iranian media.

So, what validity does Baer have for making such a bold and dangerous statement of Israel planning to attack Iran this fall.

Yes, he has a fast background in the Middle East.

Yes, it is said he has a strong, working relationship with Israel’s  Mossad.

Given these facts, what are the odds he may be close to the truth?

Let’s look at a few facts that could prove and disprove his ‘theory’.

Possible supporting facts.

1.      Iran is heading down the road of no return given the events of the Arab Spring.

a.       The pending loss of it’s number one ally, Syria and the potential loss of operational influence over Hamas and last but not least the potential loss of Hezbollah control of Lebanon.

b.      The internal power struggle between Ayatollah Khomani and Ahmadinejad shows no sign of getting better.

Simply put, everything Iran has been working to achieve is in real jeopardy of not coming to fruition.

A War with Israel may be the only true rallying cry for the Iranian people; a war that would force the rest of the Arab world to chose sides.

2.      Israel simply can not accept a nuclear Iran; it’s a matter of perceived National Survival.

3.      Israel cannot risk the rest of the freeworld simply trying to solve this issue with  sanctions all the time knowing Iran keeps finding ways to get around them to buy time.

Reasons why Baer’s theory will not happen:

1. Israel realizes such a war would be unlike any event in their history.

a.       The amount of damage to Israel’s infrastructure would be at a level they have never had to recover from in the past.

2. The understanding by all of Israel’s Allies, few as they may be,  the impact such a war would have on the entire Region,  not to mention the oil production of the Middle East, would almost guarantee Israel would have to act ‘Unilaterally’, at least in the beginning.

1. By the time the initial attacks were underway, the damage to Israel would not be offset by her Allies coming to her aid.  

3. In the end, Israel might have to realize that although they prevented Iran from becoming a nuclear power, the damage to Israel both physically and financially, not to mention internationally, would forever change the course of her history.

1. What would “ The Day After” look like?

It is truly worrisome that several members, known for their expertise in their fields, are making such bold statements; sensational yes, but never the less….. very bold.

Paranoia in Iran runs deep right now.

Paranoia also runs deep in Israel right now.

The Arab Spring brings real challenges to both nation’s futures and both could be heading towards an attitude of “ nothing to lose”.

I don’t think they are there yet, but the news continues to be bad for both of them.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/19/iran-acceleration-nuclear-angers-west