IRAN AND ISRAEL... HOW MIGHT IT HAPPEN?

The first thing worth saying is just how monumental the decision to go to war with each other truly is to both Iran and Israel.

The price both might pay, along with the rest of the region, is something they have both contemplated for years.

frankly, the fear of where such a conflict might leave both of the parties has been the best deterrence.

I've commented before Mutual Assured Destruction is not a strategic concept that Israel would base their survival on, yet their undeclared nuclear weapons program has in fact provided them with this option for years.

To paraphrase several past Israeli Statesmen and Women, ' Most of Israel was sand when they fought for it and most of Israel will be sand if they lose it.'

For the sake of looking at how this tragic event could take place, we need to accept the fact that MAD will not prevent the conflict.

How might it happen?

Let's take a look at two baseline scenarios; one with Iran starting the conflict and one with Israel initiating the event.

IRAN DECIDES TO STRIKE FIRST:

One particular lesson that may have been discovered  from the 2006 / 2008 " proxy wars" Iran experimented with is the strategic and tactical value of Israeli Air Force Bases.

Israel's ability to strike quickly and decisively is based upon it's Air Force.

the IAF is also the stopgap measure the IDF counts on to buy itself time for mobilization of it's grown forces.

To lose the IAF fields, even for a minimal amount of time, would prove to  be disastrous for Israel.

An Iranian  preemptive  missile strike on IAF airfields would be a logical strategic concept that would, at least temporarily, level the playing field.

What Iran would have to consider and do so very carefully, would be the classical " Law of Unintended Consequences".

To cripple the IAF as a first strike option would force Israel to escalate their response dramatically.

The classical, controlled exchange of conflict would not be an option if the IDF found itself without it's Air Force at the very beginning of the conflict.

Simply put, Israel would almost assuredly respond disproportionately knowing how wounded their defense had become.

If Iran was truly set on blunting Israel's ability to wage near-term warfare, it would have to gamble with the initial counter attack.

The short answer is, this scenario is an " all in" option with little room for limited exchanges.

This is the type of action Iran would take if it truly meant to attempt to defeat Israel in combat; something they will not achieve.

The Iranian ability to " control" the initial conflict would probably be based on the more classical " proxy" actions such as in 2006 and 2008.

Iran's use of Hezbollah and Hamas, although I think Hamas is no longer an option for Iranian planning purposes, would allow Iran to send the message, not just to Israel, but to the rest of the world, just how desperate the events had become.

Again, the Law of Unintended Consequences would come into play.

How Egypt and Turkey and the GCC would respond has changed dramatically after the impact of the Arab Spring.

Would the rest of the region sit on the sidelines and watch the two real enemies of the region duke it out?

Would the GCC come to the aid of the Persians?

Would the Muslim Brotherhood really care if Iran was dealt a crippling blow while most likely dealing one as well to Israel?

Would the Ottoman Empire risk conflict for the sake of the Persians?

Yes, the people of Palestine would suffer as well as the people of Lebanon, but does that equate into deaths for Egyptians or Turks?

I don't think so.

So, is this a good option for the Iranians?

Probably not and they most likely believe the same.

Ok, if the options for an Iranian first strike are " Limited... A proxy fight... or a Strategic blow .. the attack on the IAF.. .my bet is they go strategic.

The problem is, that leads us to a much more serious conflict than what the world is use to seeing in the Middle East.

How quickly things can get out of hand and how willing the rest of the world is to intervene will become the huge issue.

Before I end this discussion on how Iran may react, I want to make a point that has been talked about for several years now.

Would Iran truly target non Israeli targets in this conflict?

The short answer is... it depends.

It depends if Iran is convinced they are in a " use or lose" event... if they feel their current government is about to suffer the classical " regime change" conflict... then anything is possible.

But, if Iran executes a " First Strike" based on warning the world they will not tolerate further interference in their matters, such as an Arab Spring type events starting to happen in Iran, then they may limit the severity of the message.

Simply put, if they feel their national survival is at stake... yes they will attack " other targets.... If they are trying to send a desperate message.. then they will not.. at least not at first.

Tomorrow I will give my opinion of Israeli " First Strike" Options.