IS ASSAD WINNING?

Baniyas looks to be a major target for Friday Prayer Demonstration Suppression!

The events of the past week have knocked Syria down a few notches on the news coverage.

Early this week, I talked to a very good friend who still lives in the Middle East.

He has forgotten more about how the Middle East really works than most ‘book writers’ have ever understood.

As we were talking I asked him a very basic question and I was surprised and frankly concerned by his answer.

I asked him if he thought Assad would stay in power and he said yes!!!!

I must tell you, that was not the answer I thought he would give me and I am still working with him on why he believes that.

The trouble is, I have always trusted in his judgment and I’m struggling with why I can’t agree with him now.

Until he and I finish talking through a few additional details on Syria, I can’t stand behind my prediction Assad will fall, but I want to.

Here may be the issue I  have to come to grips with.

The West really doesn’t want him to fail.

The verbal ‘outrage’ against Assad’s actions has been heard, but I fear he is getting a nonverbal message, actions or the lack there of, from the same countries that makes him believe he can press on.

For two weeks now I have read editorials by prominent writers talking to the basic issue of Israel and ‘others’ and  a stance of, “better the devil you know then the devil you don’t know”.

Ok, this is where I have a real problem with this theory.

It will be the people of Syria that will spill their blood for the sake of gaining their freedom.

In my humble opinion, if the West does not get behind them,  it will not be forgotten.

So, what does ‘get behind them’ mean?

I have talked about the danger of openly supporting the opposition given the ties of Assad to Iran and Iran’s desperate attitude to keeping Syria as its proxy.

Open kinetic weapons support is out of the question, but letting the opposition have a sanctioned ‘safe zone’ in Jordan is not out of the question.  

A ‘safe zone’ is a place where ‘leadership’ can exist without the fear of being bombed, shot ect.. ect..

In the cold war, it was called ‘leadership in exile’.

It’s the Syrian Opposition’s version of having a Benghazi.

Is this impossible to do?

NO!

Does this need to happen?

Something needs to happen and hear is why.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is going to take the lead with the Syrian resistance and in fact they are already well on their way.

Now, I am not a fool and I realize we could do a Libyan / NATO support mission and in the end the people of Syria will probably go with a semi fundamentalist form of government anyway.

We are close to a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” scenario, but to do nothing is to guarantee failure not only in Syria but in the Middle East.

So, let’s wrap up by going back to the beginning of this post.

I am afraid the West is simply sitting on the sidelines almost wishing the Syrian event will fix itself.

This is sending Assad a message to continue or even increase his tyrannical purge of the protestors.

Syria is not going to end up a stabilized country by the rest of the world watching on TV.

It’s not going to get better by saying “harsh words” every few days on TV.

My friend may be right; Assad may survive, but if he does, events in the Middle East and North Africa, perhaps all of Central Africa, will only get worse.

Iran will have a green light to absolutely crush any glimmer of  a ‘Tunisian Virus’ inside Iran.

They  will take the offence in Bahrain and in Saudi.

There are no easy answers here, but we are at a turning point.

We can not simply watch events unfold in Syria from the sidelines.

Taking action against UBL was  a bold statement that showed the world the US can and will do what it needs to do when it needs to do it.

That mindset may need to be repeated.